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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

SnowNiner said:
I guess it depends in the definition of the -nao. Greenland ridge, AND the 50/50 low pv in the right place I would guess. We never have both but many times we call Greenland ridges -nao. Im not sure what a strong true -nao looks like honestly.
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This is actually really true. IMO what we’ve had a few times over recent years is far-west based -NAO where the TPV never comes east towards northern New England and southeastern Canada. But in most of those cases, somewhere did get wintry weather to our west like Austin, TX or Nashville, TN this year. My RDU analog image I’ve shared a couple times shows what a true west-based -NAO traditionally looks like and how it evolves over a 5 day period preceding RDUs biggest snows. It’s no accident it’s so prominent. -EPO and +PNAs are great for dumping the cold in, but RDUs biggest snows have historically come with those west-based -NAOs. I’m not sure how or why this is debated, the analogs show it.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m such a snow degenerate I’m tracking a snowstorm for a two day window in the mountains 💀 I keep trying to convince myself it’s going to snow somehow even though models are showing mid 50’s

I’m sick
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I did the same thing for a 4 day window last week. Ended up in the 40s to 50s and Sunny, but I did at least get to feel snow crunch under my feet when I drove up to Carvers. Still have my finger on the trigger for a day trip if I see a good Saturday in the short term. Been over two years now since I’ve seen snow fall from the sky.
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-------------’s Winter Snow Forecast Map issued in November

Generally pretty good and would have been totally spot on if he had moved the below average to the escarpment line.

Overall a good forecast as he was clear in his video version that the piedmont of NC and Virginia would not do well with snow due to warmer ocean temps




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NCHighCountryWX said:
-------------’s Winter Snow Forecast Map issued in November

Generally pretty good and would have been totally spot on if he had moved the below average to the escarpment line.

Overall a good forecast as he was clear in his video version that the piedmont of NC and Virginia would not do well with snow due to warmer ocean temps

I will try to find the videoView attachment 146492
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----- is the Mahomes of meteorology
 
I really miss the good ole days of getting multiple days with below freezing in the day time with frost all over. Seen a few good snows as well and this is where I was growing up in Milton Florida .
 
accu35 said:
I really miss the good ole days of getting multiple days with below freezing in the day time with frost all over. Seen a few good snows as well and this is where I was growing up in Milton Florida .
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Good ole Milton...my dad and I used to go fishing there at Avalon Beach
 
Something that never really happened with these blocks is full retrogression to NW Canada, so the TPV never really went east, and when it did, it did so quick, it retrogrades this past jan but the pattern was super suppressive as the Atlantic jet extended, and at the tail end we was relying on northern stream
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Something that never really happened with these blocks is full retrogression to NW Canada, so the TPV never really went east, and when it did, it did so quick, it retrogrades this past jan but the pattern was super suppressive as the Atlantic jet extended, and at the tail end we was relying on northern stream
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What's really annoying is Pam Anderson block we got a few weeks back over Southern Canada would have been perfect, but everything set up too far East! Can't win for losing.
 
rburrel2 said:
What's really annoying is Pam Anderson block we got a few weeks back over Southern Canada would have been perfect, but everything set up too far East! Can't win for losing.
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That look don’t work like it’s used to. Back in the days, it was plump, fresh pattern, and didn’t sag to much. Now it’s all dried up and saggy and suppressed and doesn’t work in the year of 2024
 
KyloG said:
One thing I don't agree with is the notion that 2m temp anomalies aren't useful in the extended. It was fairly clear that the core of the cold was going to dump in Asia. People who brought that up got mocked and LOL'd and there was a million likes, snowman on those mocking posts.


View attachment 146466
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Cold not on our side of the world!? I’ve never seen that before
 
SD said:
What other option is there next year lol
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i mean, true. i just have nightmares of past ninas where wave after wave after wave after wave just fizzle out. I still think out of all the options, I prefer a weak el nino. I also feel like we have more runway if an el nino appears. Anything more than a weak la nina and it's 60-70 degrees for weeks on end.
 
Just wondering...did we do something to offend the NAO? Did someone not use the proper pronouns to describe he/him she/her they/them? On behalf of the SouthernWx Community, I would like to offer an apology to NAO! I hope you/they/it are lurking this here chit chat board! 😇
 
SnowNiner said:
I'm stinking going to snowshoe. They do nothing but win this year, and it's not far.
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Its still not been a great winter for them, little below average I would say. They're always going to do somewhat well every winter because upslope snow is so strong up there.
 
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