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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Does anyone else try to avoid planning vacations in the winter time for that delusional fear in your head that it'll be the one time your backyard gets a generational blizzard?
Yes, there’s been many times my wife wanted to go out of town south and I didn’t during winter, if I knew a storm was coming I’ll stay unless it’s north then I’ll go lol
 
Does anyone else try to avoid planning vacations in the winter time for that delusional fear in your head that it'll be the one time your backyard gets a generational blizzard?

Only 1 time in my life I changed travel plans for snow...I was in NYC on business and flew home early trying to get home for this event below. We got miller-b'd and the event skipped right over Raleigh. That was the last time I did that and I will never do it again. If I had stayed in NYC I am confident Raleigh would have seen 6-8" like CLT, but I wrecked it for everyone in Raleigh. My bad.

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What a waste of a perfectly good air-mass.
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Only 1 time in my life I changed travel plans for snow...I was in NYC on business and flew home early trying to get home for this event below. We got miller-b'd and the event skipped right over Raleigh. That was the last time I did that and I will never do it again. If I had stayed in NYC I am confident Raleigh would have seen 6-8" like CLT, but I wrecked it for everyone in Raleigh. My bad.

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Thanks a lot lol. I was attending State at the time and my parents and brother were sending me pictures of the snow back home in Charlotte. Doesn’t help it all happened on my birthday.
 
Thanks a lot lol. I was attending State at the time and my parents and brother were sending me pictures of the snow back home in Charlotte. Doesn’t help it all happened on my birthday.
Yeah, that sucks for sure. CLT has had so many more bigger events than Raleigh over the recent years.
 
Yeah, that sucks for sure. CLT has had so many more bigger events than Raleigh over the recent years.
Not so sure about that. Raleigh does a lot better with the late blooming coastal systems. I did get to experience the Jan 2009 system where Raleigh got 6 inches and Charlotte got barely anything, so it all evened out during my time up there.
 
The fact is we had our chance...some scored. TN/n-AL/n-MS all had great event. Unfortunately the rest of us, east of the mountains blew our chance.

When the Jan composite completes we are going to be left shaking our head and how we screwed this up.
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Well we know now based off this look that we should have our doubts. It's something we can learn from here in the Carolinas & GA. When we have that much of a trough further West, we should be hesitant with no real +PNA involved. We got to stop dropping the trough into Mexico.

Got to give it to the models, they never really gave us much fantasy run action leading up to this period unlike the period leading up to the Late December 2022 Arctic shot where we all were going crazy in here a week before that shot of cold air came. We should of known better with this. I think we know in the future the risk with these huge arctic blast.
 
Most every met was on the 'nino best in feb, back loaded winter' train this year. There is time for things to change but this week's long look just keeps reverifying itself.
Kinda sorta takes the umph out of the "relax, we're only in mid-December....winter isn't going to start until mid-January" or "relax, we're only in mid-January...winter isn't even supposed to start until early-mid-February" arguments that we hear 80% of winters, doesn't it?
 
Not so sure about that. Raleigh does a lot better with the late blooming coastal systems. I did get to experience the Jan 2009 system where Raleigh got 6 inches and Charlotte got barely anything, so it all evened out during my time up there.
Last time we had a late blooming coastal that benefited Raleigh the iphone wasn't even invented. Along with 2011 above, look at the 2 below. Raleigh has had 1 6" event in 20+ years and CLT spits them out like tic tacs.

february_12-13_2014_nc_snowmap.giffebruary_26-27_2004_nc_snowmap.gif
 
Kinda sorta takes the umph out of the "relax, we're only in mid-December....winter isn't going to start until mid-January" or "relax, we're only in mid-January...winter isn't even supposed to start until early-mid-February" arguments that we hear 80% of winters, doesn't it?
Relax, Spring isn't officially until March 20th.
 
We all need another December 2018 storm to track. That one was sooo fun. It might’ve ended up a disappointing storm for sime but the model runs for that one was amazing. 2 feet GEFS means, Euro runs showing 2 feet for Greenville. Those were the good times
 
Haha yep...this is pretty bad and to get out of this mess will take time. Which I was hoping by mid-Feb we could see a better pattern materialize but that's strictly hope, I have nothing that gives me confidence it will.

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A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
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Does anyone else try to avoid planning vacations in the winter time for that delusional fear in your head that it'll be the one time your backyard gets a generational blizzard?

I don’t necessarily avoid them, but every time I am out of town in the winter I do worry about this. ?
 
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