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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
View attachment 142823
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A few days ago it was way amped in phase-7. Give it a few more days and see what happens. It's only good for about a week's worth of use and even there the mean shifts--just not as radically.
 
whoa the vibes are TERRIBLE today!!!

Mitch West said:
Well we know now based off this look that we should have our doubts. It's something we can learn from here in the Carolinas & GA. When we have that much of a trough further West, we should be hesitant with no real +PNA involved. We got to stop dropping the trough into Mexico.

Got to give it to the models, they never really gave us much fantasy run action leading up to this period unlike the period leading up to the Late December 2022 Arctic shot where we all were going crazy in here a week before that shot of cold air came. We should of known better with this. I think we know in the future the risk with these huge arctic blast.
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i noticed this too. in my experience you can tell the long range pattern rocks when every GFS run laces a 6-12 incher along a new interstate corridor. didn't have that here. in retrospect mewing about "potential" and "we're so close" feels foolish, makes me sound like a snake oil salesman.

some favorable patterns are cj stroud and some favorable patterns are bryce young. this was a bryce pattern
 
KyloG said:
The fact is we had our chance...some scored. TN/n-AL/n-MS all had great event. Unfortunately the rest of us, east of the mountains blew our chance.

When the Jan composite completes we are going to be left shaking our head and how we screwed this up.
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Lot of truth to your post. This was one of our chances this year and it just didn't work to the east, which is why it is so painful. Hate to have this type of legitimate cold this week and miss out on the goods. Even this little system tonight and tomorrow comes b/w fronts; the timing couldn't be worse. Your map above show it well, move that trough just a smidge East and we could have been in on it. It was just too far West and you can see the effects of the SER. We have to hope for at least one more shot here and hope the cold will be oriented better for us with better timing.
 
ILMRoss said:
whoa the vibes are TERRIBLE today!!!



i noticed this too. in my experience you can tell the long range pattern rocks when every GFS run laces a 6-12 incher along a new interstate corridor. didn't have that here. in retrospect mewing about "potential" and "we're so close" feels foolish, makes me sound like a snake oil salesman.

some favorable patterns are cj stroud and some favorable patterns are bryce young. this was a bryce pattern
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Hang tight. JaMarcus Russell pattern loadingIMG_6209.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
A lot on here kind of figures Feb will follow along in the footsteps of the last 8 or 9 or however many it's been. People can say "but we haven't had a Nino, this year is different" all they want. Enso isn't driving this garbage we deal with now. If it did we'd have had several cold Decembers due to all the Nina's we've had. The Pacific is bad for the east, especially the SE. No Enso, -NAO, QBO, SAI or EAMT to anything else is changing that. I mean just look how the MJO has largely avoided phase 8 and looks to do it again. Although I guess the circle isn't horrible but something is keeping it out of the phavorable phases in winter.
View attachment 142823
Click to expand...

I guess I need to continue to be my eternal optimist....but the pattern was always going to be very ugly going through phases 5-6 so I guess we shouldn't curl up in the fetal position just yet.

It's tough to see the forest through the trees..
 
Yep, as I suspected, in the back of my mind, February is not going to turn around fast enough for my area. I need to build some deer proof fencing so I can get my garden going in a few weeks. Mid-February is great for cool season veggies.

Edit: Oh, and by the way, winter 2023/24 is over in Atlanta after Tuesday of next week. Buh bye cold air.
 
KyloG said:
I guess I need to continue to be my eternal optimist....but the pattern was always going to be very ugly going through phases 5-6 so I guess we shouldn't curl up in the fetal position just yet.

It's tough to see the forest through the trees..
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Fair. But phase 7 in a nino does us no good. Ridging across the conus. If the biases are in play and the models of killing the pulse too soon, and we keep moving into 8 I'd feel alot better.

I'm still hopeful, not giving up yet. But if come Feb 1 were seeing the crap we're seeing now in the long range, the towel will be winding up for me.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hang tight. JaMarcus Russell pattern loadingView attachment 142825
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The one we are getting ready to exit is the Dak Prescott Pattern.
Plenty of promise on the long Range (regular season).
When the lights come on and it's go time short range (Post Season),
Every promising thing that we had showing up in the long range disappears and we end up SNOWLESS.
While we set on the sidelines with that Deer in the Headlights look...
 
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CyclonicFury said:
It really sucks that we wasted our generational snowstorm when I was a year old and couldn't remember it. RDU has been paying for it recently.

That is comparable to your favorite NFL team winning a Super Bowl when you are a year old and never winning one again.
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You just described my whole life...Raleigh snow and being a Cowboys fan. ?‍♂️

200w.gif
 
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