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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

We should do a poll to see who wins the Winter 2023-2024 Variable or Idea Of The Year award:

Previous winners include:

NAO/AO
ENSO
SAI
Apps Runner
PDO
Solar
Polar Vortex
QBO
Verbatim
Strat Warming
MJO
Mountain Torque

Nominees:

Snowpack
Jet Extension/Retraction
It Just Doesn't Work Like It Used To
We used to blame the +EPO a lot. We’ll keep that one in our Fanny pack for when we need it
 
2018-19 only had the one system here (the December snowstorm) but RDU and points north and west did quite well. I think I had a solid 7-8 inches IMBY. Unfortunately, we didn't get a flake after that for over a year, but it was enough snowfall to be above average for the winter.

2019-20 was a very warm winter overall. January had one of the warmest stretches I remember relative to climo, we had around a whole week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s with some thunderstorms. We did have a decent snow event in late February, but it was a fast-melting wet snow event and temperatures hovered around 32-33 during the entire event. I think I got about 2-3 inches from that one.

2020-21 was pretty forgettable. We had about 1.5-2" of wet snow late that month from a weak coastal, but like most recent snow systems it was a fast-melting event. Texas and parts of the deep south had historic cold and snow in February, but we had several days of cold rain here at RDU.

2021-22 had a 3-week period that was pretty fun, but had lots of potential to be something so much more. The first of the three storms was just an ice event in the RDU area mostly, but the CLT area did much better. The second system was a very cold, dry snow event, which is really the only such event in the last 5 years like that. I got a solid few inches IMBY. The third was a quick-melting wet snow dusting here. When your best winter of the last 5 years had ~2.7" total and roughly 50% of average, you know it's been rough.

2022-23 was absolute garbage almost everywhere in the region. The only memorable part was the cold outbreak right before Christmas, we got down to around 10 but no measurable snow all winter. We did go on to set our February high temperature record that year (and meteorological winter record) of 85 degrees, ahead of that day there was discussion that we could make a run for 90. It would have been kind of hilarious, not gonna lie, if RDU managed to hit 90 degrees during meteorological winter but no measurable snow.
 
Someone tell me how the hell is LES possible over those lakes in North Texas but impossible around Lake Norman?

Sent from my LM-Q730 using Tapatalk
 
We should do a poll to see who wins the Winter 2023-2024 Variable or Idea Of The Year award:

Previous winners include:

NAO/AO
ENSO
SAI
Apps Runner
PDO
Solar
Polar Vortex
QBO
Verbatim
Strat Warming
MJO
Mountain Torque

Nominees:

Snowpack
Jet Extension/Retraction
It Just Doesn't Work Like It Used To
Another coming very soon will be Sun Angle!
 
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2019 and 2020 were both weak nino's and this is how the Feb's turned out...doh.

Back in the old days we could bank on below normal/active Feb in nino's...now we suck for sucking.


View attachment 142854View attachment 142855
The good news is, and I’m reaching here, it looks like the top image is what we’re about to experience here into the back 1/3 of January so maybe we’re ahead of schedule and can luck into our usual cold March pattern in the second half of February instead of doing it in the Spring
 
I do see where Charlotte would be a better place to live for snow than Raleigh in most cases. I wasn't in Raleigh long enough to know for sure but I would imagine the warm nose gets pulled in pretty easily there.

I believe Raleigh averages significantly more snowfall than Charlotte, though. Anecdotally, Charlotte may do better than Raleigh when it comes to ice storms (closer to the mountains, so stronger CAD?), though I don’t have the data to back that up.
 
2019 and 2020 were both weak nino's and this is how the Feb's turned out...doh.

Back in the old days we could bank on below normal/active Feb in nino's...now we suck for sucking.


View attachment 142854View attachment 142855
I'm starting to realize over the last few years that the strat pv is a bigger driver than we give it credit for. Yes we can have a big wound up strat pv and still snow but look at that 2020 composite. I think that one didn't break down until like March or April.
 
The good news is, and I’m reaching here, it looks like the top image is what we’re about to experience here into the back 1/3 of January so maybe we’re ahead of schedule and can luck into our usual cold March pattern in the second half of February instead of doing it in the Spring
And these were the prevous Feb nino's....

cd107.15.181.206.17.14.36.40.prcp.pngK79iGdFeiD.png
 
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