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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

SD said:
I'm starting to realize over the last few years that the strat pv is a bigger driver than we give it credit for. Yes we can have a big wound up strat pv and still snow but look at that 2020 composite. I took that one didn't break down until like March or April.
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That's a good point too. JB is harping on the ocean temps off AUS...this was a snippet. Maybe that's why 2019/2020 and probably 2024 will suck in Feb for nino's.

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CyclonicFury said:
2018-19 only had the one system here (the December snowstorm) but RDU and points north and west did quite well. I think I had a solid 7-8 inches IMBY. Unfortunately, we didn't get a flake after that for over a year, but it was enough snowfall to be above average for the winter.

2019-20 was a very warm winter overall. January had one of the warmest stretches I remember relative to climo, we had around a whole week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 60s with some thunderstorms. We did have a decent snow event in late February, but it was a fast-melting wet snow event and temperatures hovered around 32-33 during the entire event. I think I got about 2-3 inches from that one.

2020-21 was pretty forgettable. We had about 1.5-2" of wet snow late that month from a weak coastal, but like most recent snow systems it was a fast-melting event. Texas and parts of the deep south had historic cold and snow in February, but we had several days of cold rain here at RDU.

2021-22 had a 3-week period that was pretty fun, but had lots of potential to be something so much more. The first of the three storms was just an ice event in the RDU area mostly, but the CLT area did much better. The second system was a very cold, dry snow event, which is really the only such event in the last 5 years like that. I got a solid few inches IMBY. The third was a quick-melting wet snow dusting here. When your best winter of the last 5 years had ~2.7" total and roughly 50% of average, you know it's been rough.

2022-23 was absolute garbage almost everywhere in the region. The only memorable part was the cold outbreak right before Christmas, we got down to around 10 but no measurable snow all winter. We did go on to set our February high temperature record that year (and meteorological winter record) of 85 degrees, ahead of that day there was discussion that we could make a run for 90. It would have been kind of hilarious, not gonna lie, if RDU managed to hit 90 degrees during meteorological winter but no measurable snow.
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Yeah, it’s been bleak. 2021-22 was a little better up here in Durham since we got 1.5-2” of mostly sleet in that first ice storm. I think our total that year was in the ~5” range, which honestly isn’t too bad. Like you said, we had that 2” cold snow event, which wasn’t a lot, but it was a colder storm which was nice, and a welcome change from all the BS wet snow events we’ve had lately. And had a couple other minor events that weren’t notable. I’d say it was a fairly average winter, but when that’s the best winter out of the last five, you know it's been a terrible time. I still can’t believe we went all last winter without seeing a single flake. Truly desolate stuff. All the other minor events we’ve gotten have been marginal temp events, where your half inch or slop melts in a few hours. Terrible, almost not even worth it falling.
 
SD said:
Not yikes View attachment 142859
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NPac ridge is more conducive to stronger PV while Npac low leads to weaker PV. That could be why we see nina's suck in Feb with a strengthening PV and nino's should be weakening it with it's prevalant NPac low. I don't know...I am way out of league talking about the why's now.
 
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Idk the pattern over the next few weeks seems far more Nino influenced then what he’s saying, with the PT pattern in place that’s nothing like a La Niña, the only reason the Indian Ocean has been extremely influential was because the IOD crashed in early January
 
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KyloG said:
That's a good point too. JB is harping on the ocean temps off AUS...this was a snippet. Maybe that's why 2019/2020 and probably 2024 will suck in Feb for nino's.

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I'm assuming he's talking about the jet extension looking more like nina than nino which I think I've seen data around that it's not uncommon in p7-8 nino years..

In all honesty all you have to do is keep the pac jet back not that far west and the first half of Feb would go hard. Just not sure if that happens
 
SD said:
Not yikes View attachment 142859
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Give me this in Fab Feb and I’ll try not to complain too much about this winter. ?


february_25-26_2015_nc_snowmap.png


Although that one was pretty bleak for YBY. ?
 
superjames1992 said:
Give me this in Fab Feb and I’ll try not to complain too much about this winter. ?


february_25-26_2015_nc_snowmap.png


Although that one was pretty bleak for YBY. ?
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I'd take this 2 week stretch over and over again.. yeah I'd get screwed on the big one but the high of 23 with full sun was epic along with the convective snow ahead of the cold front
 
SD said:
I'd take this 2 week stretch over and over again.. yeah I'd get screwed on the big one but the high of 23 with full sun was epic along with the convective snow ahead of the cold front
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The overperformer the day before this one was cool too, was a cold dry snow event. Totals weren't overly impressive but I'd rather have this over a quick melting event like February 20, 2020 or January 28, 2021
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CyclonicFury said:
The overperformer the day before this one was cool too, was a cold dry snow event. Totals weren't overly impressive but I'd rather have this over a quick melting event like February 20, 2020 or January 28, 2021
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I remember the only model that had this at one point was the rgem and it was pretty much discounted until it popped up on everything else like the day before. Like you said not impressive but it snowed like all day
 
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This event from January 29, 2010 doesn't get discussed as much as some other events but I'll never forget the loud sleet sound hitting the roof that night. We ended up with about 5-6" total with a lot of that being sleet. It may cut back on overall totals but I miss a classic wintry mix
 
I just want something to avoid a shutout again for the 2nd time in a row. That'll make the 3rd total ever with all 3 in the last 12 years. If we fail Feb I know some will say we have March and March 2nd is the snowiest day it CLT blah blah blah. It must be drastically different there than GSP then. Since 1990 there has only been measurable snow in March 6 times. And only 3 times over 1 inch. 1993 with 9.8" 1999 with 1.1" and 2009 with 4.4". So I apologize in advance for not being hyped up about March. Because I know the March 1960 crowd will be out when we blow Feb.
 
The Indian Ocean is about to lose influence completely. Might be a KW left over in the southern IO but that’s about it, all MJO forcing looks to move into the pacific, and the VP maps even show it in the general vicinity of the whem threshold, the RMM phase maps don’t tell everything and I see it posted often, but it doesn’t tell the full story. Normally when we get majority of forcing past the dateline is when good stuff starts happening so I’m shocked that we don’t have the best looks right now.
But there’s a lot of stuff weighing into the pacific jet, +EAMT/upcoming +AAM/MJO moving east, that’s a lot of momentum, maybe too much at once. This is a El Niño look though for sure, but rather a early cool season Nino look 1A9213F1-528B-4C00-9415-4EA7F6602954.pngAE5BE919-E6E9-4C1C-9BD3-2161E55CCCB0.png
 
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