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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Myfrotho704_ said:
Averages starting to rise and it’s really starting to show on ens means. Getting to that Time of the year where days getting to 60F is getting easier and easier. In 4-5 weeks that’ll be 70F instead, and 7-9 weeks 80F, and then week 12-14 we are cooking and it’s full on summer baby View attachment 146454View attachment 146455
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Starting to feel February is the new March honestly, the first spring month. I think this hobby east of the mountains has been reduced down to basically a two month window, say December 15 to February 15 generally.
 
SD said:
It's never going to snow again localized GW has consumed NC and SC Memphis is the new boone
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Bingo. It doesn't just seem insurmountable that we will ever see a flake a snow fly again in central NC....it actually has turned to impossible.
 
KyloG said:
I pushed my work Utah trip ot to March 3rd week and now with the cold dumping out west I better be flying into a blizzard

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Pattern will break down by then. This animal will not you win. Look what happened to Mack and Brent when they tried to leave and find snow. RIP
 
I swear the EPS showed more members with snow in October than it does today in what should be peak nino climo.

I am still stunned that we screwed this up so bad...and I am also stunned that I am stunned.

ecmwf-ensemble-KRDU-indiv_snow_24-7868800.png
 
SD said:
Bring on spring bring on spring
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It's coming, but I still say it will be late. Miserable March still incoming cold/nasty 40s and rain lots of freezes behind the cold rain events etc... And I still would not be surprised if at least the upper SE gets some snow.
 
if it's 45 and raining on masters weekend again (will never forgot watching justin thomas and co finish up their rounds and struggling to hit 200 yard drives in the wedge last year) and 61 and cloudy on MDW this year again i then yeah sorry its a new normal
 
One thing I don't agree with is the notion that 2m temp anomalies aren't useful in the extended. It was fairly clear that the core of the cold was going to dump in Asia. People who brought that up got mocked and LOL'd and there was a million likes, snowman on those mocking posts.


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t2m_f_anom_5day-8754400.png
 
KyloG said:
One thing I don't agree with is the notion that 2m temp anomalies aren't useful in the extended. It was fairly clear that the core of the cold was going to dump in Asia. People who brought that up got mocked and LOL'd and there was a million likes, snowman on those mocking posts.


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I'd still say they aren't
 
ILMRoss said:
i take pains to be a well behaved northern latitude guy. i remember growing up in wilmington and reading these forums and knowing the only way i was scoring is if everyone was like "gah too suppressed". distinctly remember shutting my laptop once bc big frosty was ecstatic at a run and thats when i knew i was toast
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I can remember my first winter in Davidson after growing up really close to 85 in Gaston County. Man it felt like I'd finally made it. From then on out, I determined I would always live at the most advantageous latitude I could wherever I ended up. Just so happens, Northern Durham county reminds me alot of home so we settled here.
 
What a crappy "winter" this turned out to be. This has been 2011-2012 bad. I put it below last year since I at least had 3 traces of snow and a cold Christmas week.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
What a crappy "winter" this turned out to be. This has been 2011-2012 bad. I put it below last year since I at least had 3 traces of snow and a cold Christmas week.
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2012 was a banner year...we got 1" from this event...that winter will be the gold standard moving forward.

february_19_2012_nc_snowmap.gif
 
I also want to apologize to GaWx....he was steadfast that the PNA/EPO was a far bigger variable on our snow than the AO/NAO. Clearly he was right...I was wrong. Maybe pre-1990 the AO/NAO was bigger but now its all about the PNA/EPO..
 
KyloG said:
I also want to apologize to GaWx....he was steadfast that the PNA/EPO was a far bigger variable on our snow than the AO/NAO. Clearly he was right...I was wrong. Maybe pre-1990 the AO/NAO was bigger but now its all about the PNA/EPO..
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When was the last time we had a true west based -nao
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a true west based -nao
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We have gotten snow many times with just a +PNA/-EPO and +NAO but when have we gotten snow with just a -NAO, -PNA, +EPO.
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a true west based -nao
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Exactly. It’s more clear to me than ever that a functioning west-based -NAO is the most important because we haven’t had one in 13 years now. My RDU 6” analogs clearly show what a functioning one does to the pattern. We just don’t get them anymore.
 
1300m said:
Exactly. It’s more clear to me than ever that a functioning west-based -NAO is the most important because we haven’t had one in 13 years now. My RDU 6” analogs clearly show what a functioning one does to the pattern. We just don’t get them anymore.
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I guess it depends in the definition of the -nao. Greenland ridge, AND the 50/50 low pv in the right place I would guess. We never have both but many times we call Greenland ridges -nao. Im not sure what a strong true -nao looks like honestly.
 
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