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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Cad Wedge NC said:
I am trying to take your advice from yesterday and think positive. However, it is becoming more and more difficult when everything trends downhill as we approach verification time.
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Why do we even trust the models anymore? I believe it's going to happen no matter what they say. Just a feeling. xxoo⛄❄️☃️
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am trying to take your advice from yesterday and think positive. However, it is becoming more and more difficult when everything trends downhill as we approach verification time.
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Yeh I have my moments also. But personally have a came a long way hahaha. The Winter of 2017/2018 still gets me sometimes where every location in the South & Southeast got measurable Winter weather except Columbia. But I am going to stay positive. Weather is going to do what it do.
 
A trip down memory lane:

Georgia Weather History for January 10th​

In 2011, one of the most significant winter storms to affect north and central Georgia in years began on the evening of the 9th and continued through much of the 10th. Four to eight inches of snow was common across most of north Georgia north of I-20. South of I-20 and into central Georgia, there was a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Major interstates and roads were impassable across north Georgia for 2 to 3 days and many schools were closed for the entire week.
 
Mitch West said:
We need a reassurance post from @Myfrotho704_ & @Webberweather53 & @griteater regarding Fab February again. We are going to need one at least every other day.

Warm regards,
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+PNA/Aleutian low is coming. There’s no other way around it. AK block retrograding to Siberia is gonna add a bunch of momentum to the pacific jet and bring back the pac trough/Aleutian low. Maybe we delay it because overextension, but it’s gonna happen. I think the biggest challenge is lining something up during the SE during that pattern lol
 
Wow somehow the wind got the kids trampoline over both of our cars and into the other side of the yard. Impressive. I have no idea how it was able to get high enough to go over the cars.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
+PNA/Aleutian low is coming. There’s no other way around it. AK block retrograding to Siberia is gonna add a bunch of momentum to the pacific jet and bring back the pac trough/Aleutian low. Maybe we delay it because overextension, but it’s gonna happen. I think the biggest challenge is lining something up during the SE during that pattern lol
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And then the track will be over southern Georgia and CAE remains sleet and fr rain. Lolz

For real though, for us down here around I 20 dealing with warmer advection, we need a system traveling across North central Florida with an arctic type front already in place along with some supportive cad. It takes so much here, and it's always been that way for pure sn. ?
 
KyloG said:
It's going to snow east of the mountains with this pattern...it just is...it has to...I think

View attachment 141102
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If it actually turns out to look like that, and it doesn't snow on us, or at least give us a trackable threat, I give up. I don't know what else we need and I'm wasting my time and energy honestly. Hoping the snow means on the ensembles start to at least creep up modestly.
 
I'm just looking at the writing on the wall... We have little to no chance with the day 6 threat east of the apps... then if you look for a day 9-10 threat on ensembles (b/c no operationals have shown anything all week), other than a couple freezing rain events 95% of them don't show any wintry for us. (I guess there's a tiny bit of snow noise on the Canadian ensembles, but bleh).

Then you have fairly good consensus the pattern is going to re-schuffle post day 12 in to something not conducive for us, (all the ensembles have us moderating to above normal temps then).

That gets us in to January 23/24th or so, Not good.

Other than a really lucky break in our favor with modeling the next few days, we're now looking in to the February Webb window for something.
 
SnowNiner said:
If it actually turns out to look like that, and it doesn't snow on us, or at least give us a trackable threat, I give up. I don't know what else we need and I'm wasting my time and energy honestly. Hoping the snow means on the ensembles start to at least creep up modestly.
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Agreed...it doesn't necessarily have to snow in Raleigh but snow somewhere from in GA/SC/NC get a small 1-2" to get one on the scoreboard. Pattern is going to relax and we are looking at end of January before we could see a more favorable pattern develop again.
 
Hot take... this pattern/block has never looked good for us, It's developing too far north towards the pole. It's in a great spot to deliver cold and snow to Canada and New England.

Usually you'd assume it's still a great look as modeled b/c it is going to eventually retrograde west as it breaks down, which is typically money for us, but it seems like we're going to have a solid week+ where it's stationary,(too far north), then when it finally retrogrades west and the vortex kicks east, that's going to happen at rocket ship speed and leave us with a very short window for something good.(and no modeling is showing anything capitalizing on that short window so far other that a little noise on CMCE and a few GEFS members showing some nuisance level freezing rain events).
 
rburrel2 said:
Hot take... this pattern/block has never looked good for us, It's developing too far north towards the pole. It's in a great spot to deliver cold and snow to Canada and New England.

Usually you'd assume it's still a great look as modeled b/c it is going to eventually retrograde west as it breaks down, which is typically money for us, but it seems like we're going to have a solid week+ where it's stationary,(too far north), then when it finally retrogrades west and the vortex kicks east, that's going to happen at rocket ship speed and leave us with a very short window for something good.(and no modeling is showing anything capitalizing on that short window so far).
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if it were too fart north we wouldn't be shearing everything to pieces after day 7
 
SD said:
if it were too fart north we wouldn't be shearing everything to pieces after day 7
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Meh, that's more a product of TPV stalling too far west over Canada. Shift the block south and it can't hang out there for a week anymore.

This is a horrible location for the TPV to be for us to score. Just looking at that map you'd think we would evolve in to a solid window with a banging pattern. But for whatever reason we drew the short straw and somehow it gets hung up just like that for a long time and then rapidly breaks down, (shrinking our window to a very short period).

But hey, maybe something will change on the modeling today and things will look better. It just looks really bleak right now, imo.

Screen Shot 2024-01-10 at 9.45.00 AM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
Hot take... this pattern/block has never looked good for us, It's developing too far north towards the pole. It's in a great spot to deliver cold and snow to Canada and New England.

Usually you'd assume it's still a great look as modeled b/c it is going to eventually retrograde west as it breaks down, which is typically money for us, but it seems like we're going to have a solid week+ where it's stationary,(too far north), then when it finally retrogrades west and the vortex kicks east, that's going to happen at rocket ship speed and leave us with a very short window for something good.(and no modeling is showing anything capitalizing on that short window so far other that a little noise on CMCE and a few GEFS members showing some nuisance level freezing rain events).
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Well we better hope something pops up in Jan. I've done some digging and if we don't get on the board in Jan history says there will be no Fab Feb. Fab Febs are reserved for winters already on the board by then.

There have been 33 years where GSP has only recorded at TR or less through Feb 1st. Only 4 have finished above the current 30 year average of 4.7 inches.
1893-94 7.0"
1894-95 14.5"
1926-27 9.7"
1928-29 5.6"

Only 2 have finished close to average. Above 4 inches but less that the 4.7"
1898-99 4.3"
2008-09 4.4"

17 finished with less than 1 inch total. So the remaining 10 finished between 1-4 inches. Not exactly encouraging looking at the long range. If we reach Jan 25th and have no snow and no hope through Feb 1st I'm hanging it up for a good winter because the data days it's an unrealistic expectation at that point. Sure it may snow but it'll likely only be a novelty event and nothing major. This is for GSP only maybe RDU and other have better stats. But I think CLT is similar.
 
KyloG said:
Agreed...it doesn't necessarily have to snow in Raleigh but snow somewhere from in GA/SC/NC get a small 1-2" to get one on the scoreboard. Pattern is going to relax and we are looking at end of January before we could see a more favorable pattern develop again.
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I don't think it matters even if we have a "good pattern," or if it's Nina or Nino. It's just timing and luck to get snow here. I have seen people talk about how good the pattern looks over the years and we still ended up with nothing.
 
rburrel2 said:
I'm just looking at the writing on the wall... We have little to no chance with the day 6 threat east of the apps... then if you look for a day 9-10 threat on ensembles (b/c no operationals have shown anything all week), other than a couple freezing rain events 95% of them don't show any wintry for us. (I guess there's a tiny bit of snow noise on the Canadian ensembles, but bleh).

Then you have fairly good consensus the pattern is going to re-schuffle post day 12 in to something not conducive for us, (all the ensembles have us moderating to above normal temps then).

That gets us in to January 23/24th or so, Not good.

Other than a really lucky break in our favor with modeling the next few days, we're now looking in to the February Webb window for something.
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I’ll be honest I’m starting to think all that fab Feb talk is gonna end up being a huge disappointment. We will see.
 
Stevo24 said:
I’ll be honest I’m starting to think all that fab Feb talk is gonna end up being a huge disappointment. We will see.
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It is unless we get something this month. And that's looking less likely with each passing day. See my latest post in this thread to see why the odds are against us
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
It is unless we get something this month. And that's looking less likely with each passing day. See my latest post in this thread to see why the odds are against us
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I assume this data is all winters and not nino ones?Of course the nino ones may look worse. If nino winters where we do not score before Feb 1st follow by showing a poor feb snow performance then we might need to adjust our expectations. ;)
 
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