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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Myfrotho704_ said:
There’s a reason we are getting interesting runs. That H5 pattern coming up is wedge happy. Looks warm now on ens but the mean ridge over Canada and the Great Lakes normally results in wedges View attachment 143072View attachment 143074View attachment 143076
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This to me seems like the best pattern I've seen coming up, because of the Miller B wedges that it could produce. Having a real Atlantic 50/50 in the area could produce.

Myfrotho704_ said:
Definitely cautious with the longer range ensembles because I think they have just been to fast with everything pattern wise, but they basically do what I expect overall. The big ridge in Canada eventually becomes a -NAO as wavebreaking occurs, the pac trough backs up to the Aleutian Islands. View attachment 143086View attachment 143087
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Weeklies in my opinion have been standard nino climo and haven't been helpful. I also note they don't really have a pna.

Mitch West said:
Feels like we are healing this morning. Lol

I just hope in Mid February we aren't dropping the Arctic circle into Texas again.
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This is my fear as well. We repeat Canadian ridging that looks good but has the trough/pv tucked in the Midwest again, and the party stays too our west. Need the trough off the Canadian coast.

Just need to sit back and wait I guess. Man though, getting tired of pattern tracking.
 
out of curiosity what was the highest storm total from last week. anybody in the MS/TN line area crack 8 inches?
 
We suck so bad that not only can we look up and not see snow, we can't even look up and see the aurora borealis through the clouds.

www.dailyfetched.com

Major Solar Storm to Hit Earth Today Causing GPS Outages

A large geomagnetic storm is expected to hit the Earth's atmosphere later today and disrupt radio and GPS, according to models by both NASA and NOAA. The fla
www.dailyfetched.com www.dailyfetched.com
 
El Nino has had full effect on our pattern since the Memorial Day crapper we had last year. 8A863429-C8DE-4646-A0FA-A4FD24CAEC55.jpeg
 
Does anyone have a map of the pattern during the Feb 2014 Winter storm? And what site do you find them on? honestly not familiar with looking them up much. I just see people posting them a lot. Just want to get an idea of what was driving such a strong CAD with placement & strength of HP.
 
Mitch West said:
Does anyone have a map of the pattern during the Feb 2014 Winter storm? And what site do you find them on? honestly not familiar with looking them up much. I just see people posting them a lot. Just want to get an idea of what was driving such a strong CAD with placement & strength of HP.
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What are the dates and what parameters are you looking for?
 
Billypg70 said:
My only reason for posting this is to give you some assurance,
We all need that push from time to time.
This is your calling.
There's others here too,
That I feel have a true calling to be in a meteorology career.
In some fashion.
There's at least 10-15 ppl when reading these models that I pay close attention too.
Your one of the top.
Along with fill in the name.
We all know who they are...
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There is a lot of good information on this page. And one can learn an awful lot on here. This is also an emotional hobby. I mean I'll cancel winter in a heartbeat in mid Jan, even though I know that's foolish. I don't think I've done that yet but I was on the verge the other day when it was looking bleak through Feb 5th or so ???. I had to do some February research to see if there was any truth to winter being over in SC and GA most years after Feb 15th. It's not. Over the last 50 years there have been 25 February's that produced measurable snowfall. There were 30 events total. So 5 of those winters had 2 events. 12 of the 30 events occurred after Feb 15th. So just a slight drop-off. And some big ones were late Feb. So for now we push on. Now if we make Feb 20th and the models show little hope for the rest of the month I'll probably cliff dive. Only 6 snowfalls of 1 inch or more in March over the last 30 years doesn't give me much hope for March saving us except on rare occasions
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
There is a lot of good information on this page. And one can learn an awful lot on here. This is also an emotional hobby. I mean I'll cancel winter in a heartbeat in mid Jan, even though I know that's foolish. I don't think I've done that yet but I was on the verge the other day when it was looking bleak through Feb 5th or so ???. I had to do some February research to see if there was any truth to winter being over in SC and GA most years after Feb 15th. It's not. Over the last 50 years there have been 25 February's that produced measurable snowfall. There were 30 events total. So 5 of those winters had 2 events. 12 of the 30 events occurred after Feb 15th. So just a slight drop-off. And some big ones were late Feb. So for now we push on. Now if we make Feb 20th and the models show little hope for the rest of the month I'll probably cliff dive. Only 6 snowfalls of 1 inch or more in March over the last 30 years doesn't give me much hope for March saving us except on rare occasions
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What you don’t mention is how it’s been almost 15 years since the I-20 corridor has had anything significant after Feb 15. In the old days it was a lot easier to get snow in late winter. If this was 20 years ago I’d probably feel a little more confident in the prospects of snow late in the winter but times have changed and the climate is warmer.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
There is a lot of good information on this page. And one can learn an awful lot on here. This is also an emotional hobby. I mean I'll cancel winter in a heartbeat in mid Jan, even though I know that's foolish. I don't think I've done that yet but I was on the verge the other day when it was looking bleak through Feb 5th or so ???. I had to do some February research to see if there was any truth to winter being over in SC and GA most years after Feb 15th. It's not. Over the last 50 years there have been 25 February's that produced measurable snowfall. There were 30 events total. So 5 of those winters had 2 events. 12 of the 30 events occurred after Feb 15th. So just a slight drop-off. And some big ones were late Feb. So for now we push on. Now if we make Feb 20th and the models show little hope for the rest of the month I'll probably cliff dive. Only 6 snowfalls of 1 inch or more in March over the last 30 years doesn't give me much hope for March saving us except on rare occasions
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Great post...
Ty for your work.
25 snows in 50 years is much higher than I would've guessed.
Half of Feb's over the last 50 years have produced.
That's shocking to me.
Feb makes me think of things blossoming more than snow for someone reason.
Maybe it's Bc if we kept track of blossoming in Feb it would be 50/50.
Idk?
Btw there's not a lot that separates GSP, Charlotte, & Raleigh.
Generally if it's good for one it's good for the others.
Except some EC storms that will hit Charlotte occasionally & Raleigh often than misses GSP West.
Also occasionally GSP will do better than Charlotte occasionally and Raleigh even to a higher degree with CAD storms.
Generally speaking they almost miss or hit snow together.
 
Mitch West said:
Does anyone have a map of the pattern during the Feb 2014 Winter storm? And what site do you find them on? honestly not familiar with looking them up much. I just see people posting them a lot. Just want to get an idea of what was driving such a strong CAD with placement & strength of HP.
Click to expand...

If you want to look at surface maps. There probably is a v with post 2018 stuff but nothing has good happened post 2018 so I haven't looked for it.

Reanalysis maps

Reanalysis maps for North America and Europe
meteocentre.com
 
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