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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

AT this point if you are looking at MJO. AO. NAO, PNA to make your winter 15-7 day forecast you have fell into a trap! I have been around this for a long time and the models were better in the 80's and 90's then now! Someone came up with these ideas in the last 15 years that work but are never forecasted right . MJO Phase 8 , -AO, PNA favorable conditions, 50/50 Low, Blah, Blah. Folks these are made up for perfect conditions to get snow, they should not be used for long or med term forecasting. To me only SE ridge and PAC Jet are a bigger player.

What i am saying we need to read the maps have skill set that shows us our way to get snow. A lot of times we are just looking at the L or H on the maps, not contour lines , not actual placements of the High pressure , and more studies into the way the PAC, ocean has an effect on our weather. Like placements of LOWS and Highs overall wind direction and the actual flow of air. Most of these are available but we allow the computers to suck us in , without using some real time data and using something I call forecasting skill. which is a learned trait and takes time to study historic weather patterns weather is Hot, Cold, Snowy, rainy, or dry.
 
Pilotwx said:
AT this point if you are looking at MJO. AO. NAO, PNA to make your winter 15-7 day forecast you have fell into a trap! I have been around this for a long time and the models were better in the 80's and 90's then now! Someone came up with these ideas in the last 15 years that work but are never forecasted right . MJO Phase 8 , -AO, PNA favorable conditions, 50/50 Low, Blah, Blah. Folks these are made up for perfect conditions to get snow, they should not be used for long or med term forecasting. To me only SE ridge and PAC Jet are a bigger player.

What i am saying we need to read the maps have skill set that shows us our way to get snow. A lot of times we are just looking at the L or H on the maps, not contour lines , not actual placements of the High pressure , and more studies into the way the PAC, ocean has an effect on our weather. Like placements of LOWS and Highs overall wind direction and the actual flow of air. Most of these are available but we allow the computers to suck us in , without using some real time data and using something I call forecasting skill. which is a learned trait and takes time to study historic weather patterns weather is Hot, Cold, Snowy, rainy, or dry.
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MJO literally takes control of the pac jet lol….
PNA is a result of a what the pac jet is doing lmao…..
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
If it's not going to snow I hope it does squash it to Cuba. Tired of rain. Hope I don't see anymore until the grass greens up in March or April
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Or Charleston. I hope there’s a narrow swath of 4-6” from Kiawah Island to Kitty Hawk so I can quit
 
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Look at that high pressure lined up in Canada, right after our southern stream wave has exited the SE. waiting to wedge away could be warmer days with low T NE flow 281F7E16-F41F-4674-B78C-C77CD2B6693E.pngperfect timing
 
Arcc said:
The only storm I remember tracking really far in advance(five or more days)was February 2009 and January 2011 and even they bounced around. The rest sprung up much quicker.
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Even Feb 14’ gave us some pain in the CLT area ….it went from big blizzard to too jacked up with a lot of ice back to snow back to a mixed bag. Jan 2021 same thing, Big storm, Too jacked “is it gonna go too far NW” back to ok a mixed bag ect. That was all inside Day 6 too


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Myfrotho704_ said:
MJO literally takes control of the pac jet lol….
PNA is a result of a what the pac jet is doing lmao…..
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Yep, they do but they do not work as forecasted by models 8-15 days out. How many times have you seen a 50/50 low forecasted 15 days out to go away in the next run? Me to many to count. Its about MED term forecasting its not very good.
 
1300m said:
View attachment 146283

The 546 dm thickness is the height difference between 1000-500mb level. The reason it isn't the best is because if you have a near-isothermal layer (temp near freezing from the surface to 500 mb) then the thickness can be greater than 540dm or even 546dm but the entire column could still be technically at or below freezing and supportive of snow.

1000-850mb is a better proxy because it is representative of the lower-layer of the atmopshere, while 850-700mb is representative of mid-levels (think warm noses). With lots of research behind it, the partial thickness nomogram research work done by Kermit Keeter et. al. has proven over the years to be a very effective method of precpitation type foreasting. 1000-850mb thickness is also effective for high temperature forecasting and is often referenced in NWS AFDs also.

Reference: https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/constant-pressure-charts-thickness
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Little stick would still say it can’t snow with that thickness after this post, but this is a great breakdown
 
I remember when we were begging for rain and it would just go around…..yes I remember…..So long ago it was.
 
Look. We have a major SSWE looming and Yellowstone is long overdue. Ya just never know.
 
Nothing like watching Facebook friends make snowmen while my mud moistens. Winters have been brutal lately. And I’m only 20 minutes from Tennessee
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Look. We have a major SSWE looming and Yellowstone is long overdue. Ya just never know.
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Throw in the North Atlantic current thing shutting down and major sunspots ready to blast our polluting butts to oblivion on the heap as well.

We will definitely know we are at the end if JB decides to become a clown instead of being a meteorologist.
 
Years ago models 5 days out would show snow , then it would back off move SE and days 3and 4 were a mess no snow very little snow . Then day 2 would arrive and models went back to day 5 forecast of snow and we knew of model biases . They made changes to the models thinking they would be better, GFS especially it’s been off a lot more than on.

I expect the models to flip flop the next days up until day 2 or 3 with this storm
 
GFS looked good to me
 
Im officially out. Punting this winter away. Should have done it in November. Strong el nino winters are always the worst as weve seen once again ,the pac air onslaught just overwhelms. Lesson is when you see one coming, move on.
To the Fab Feb conical hoopla that was being sold. Maybe in a low end el nino, perhaps moderate. But it dont work in strong el ninos. We have as much luck scoring in strong la nina as we do strong el nino.
Appreciate the board , all the wx post. Maybe next year we can stay neutral, La Nada...

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