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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Truly is wild that we can't even manage a Winter weather advisory. I mean, we can't even work a Winter weather threat into the medium range these days. I do hope something delivers for the back half of February into early March.. Because if it doesn't, the energy going into next Winter will be unbearable.
 
Brad p appreciation thread? I’m just going to assume the models went to ? night
 
Mitch West said:
Truly is wild that we can't even manage a Winter weather advisory. I mean, we can't even work a Winter weather threat into the medium range these days. I do hope something delivers for the back half of February into early March.. Because if it doesn't, the energy going into next Winter will be unbearable.
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They'll just be less and less interest in tracking winter here Mitch that's all. Folks will just become discouraged. It's already far different than it was a few short years ago. Of course that could also be related to individual mets creating and hosting/posting their own content as alluded to by some here last month. Not like the old days for sure.

edit: btw I appreciate your podcasts and that you also jump in here for conversation. It's been a long winter for sure my friend
 
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CaryWx said:
They'll just be less and less interest in tracking winter here Mitch that's all. Folks will just become discouraged. It's already far different than it was a few short years ago. Of course that could also be related to individual mets creating and hosting/posting their own content as alluded to by some here last month. Not like the old days for sure.
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It is true. It just makes it tough to enjoy the risk & chances without someone commenting "NOT HAPPENING" 538 times. But I get the frustration. It think it's just more wild to me that places like GSP, Asheville, Charlotte.. Heck even Atlanta, Greensboro, Raleigh & surrounding areas haven't sniffed Winter weather in like a Winter & a half. Can't even buy a Winter weather advisory. I understand we need a minor miracle down here in the Midlands. I mean we haven't seen more than 2-3 inches of snow in just about a decade. (most of that coming in the January 22 event) so it's not as shocking down here, but for everyone else in those areas... Holy smokes..
 
BullCityWx said:
I will never understand why we let the GFS drive the mood around here.
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Yea I mean could it be right ? Yea .... but It was the first to latch and last to go even on last weeks "storm" EURO has changes but rarely do you see the drastic differences. If EURO shows the same issues at 2 today sure
 
BullCityWx said:
I will never understand why we let the GFS drive the mood around here.
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Well, if we are being completely honest, lately when a model starts throwing out "Warmer scenario warnings" often times it's shift in the wrong direction, even if it is the GFS. That's what drives the mood.
 
Mitch West said:
Well, if we are being completely honest, lately when a model starts throwing out "Warmer scenario warnings" often times it's shift in the wrong direction, even if it is the GFS. That's what drives the mood.
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This is true, but a "trend" is more to be worrysome than one run even in ensembles imo. I condsider a "trend 4 straight runs of same thing" good or bad. Dont buy a "trend" either way unless its 24hrs of runs jmo though
 
FallsLake said:
As I said before, I'm heading to Disney World the last week in February. Family is really looking forward to it, but I just know that's when RDU will get a snow. I'm almost hoping nothing will occur but would also like to see the snow drought broke; and of course, I would be happy for all that get snow.
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You are most likely not going to have worry about that. I would be pumped about Disney, we took the kids last fall and was great.
 
BullCityWx said:
I will never understand why we let the GFS drive the mood around here.
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In the same vein, I haven't figured out why it's the one that gets posted 95% of the time, when the EURO usually takes it to school the majority of the time.
 
Mitch West said:
It is true. It just makes it tough to enjoy the risk & chances without someone commenting "NOT HAPPENING" 538 times. But I get the frustration. It think it's just more wild to me that places like GSP, Asheville, Charlotte.. Heck even Atlanta, Greensboro, Raleigh & surrounding areas haven't sniffed Winter weather in like a Winter & a half. Can't even buy a Winter weather advisory. I understand we need a minor miracle down here in the Midlands. I mean we haven't seen more than 2-3 inches of snow in just about a decade. (most of that coming in the January 22 event) so it's not as shocking down here, but for everyone else in those areas... Holy smokes..
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Actually it's even rare down there to go 10 years with 2 inches. You won't find that anywhere else in records. Wasn't the 8 year drought that was broken in 22 the longest? There was a 5 year drought in the mid to late 70s there that ended with the Feb 1979 storm. There was also a tough time from 2004-2010. But nothing like the last 10 years have been. It's been a really awful time for snow lovers anywhere in the Carolina's outside the mtns
 
Our streak of AN Feb's is getting absurd. 2021 was slight BN but the rest have been brutal. 2015 was our last solid BN Feb.

And with this Feb through mid month looking AN it's going to be close to whether it finishes at neutral or not.

cd107.15.181.206.39.7.46.19.prcp.pngcd107.15.181.206.39.7.45.17.prcp.png
 
KyloG said:
Our streak of AN Feb's is getting absurd. 2021 was slight BN but the rest have been brutal. 2015 was our last solid BN Feb.

And with this Feb through mid month looking AN it's going to be close to whether it finishes at neutral or not.

View attachment 145859View attachment 145860
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Just like Decembers. Except they have been trash since 2010. Almost like Jan is all we have anymore that feels like true winter.
 
KyloG said:
Our streak of AN Feb's is getting absurd. 2021 was slight BN but the rest have been brutal. 2015 was our last solid BN Feb.

And with this Feb through mid month looking AN it's going to be close to whether it finishes at neutral or not.

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I think December's have been even worse than February in terms of AN temps.
 
Our Big city slicker I-95 Friends up North are gonna commence to crying after seeing the ICON in 5....4....3....2....1. Completely Blanks all the Big Citys except Boston.
 
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Week 4 on the GEFS ext looks great...first week of March will give us some more chances.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9769600.png
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Actually it's even rare down there to go 10 years with 2 inches. You won't find that anywhere else in records. Wasn't the 8 year drought that was broken in 22 the longest? There was a 5 year drought in the mid to late 70s there that ended with the Feb 1979 storm. There was also a tough time from 2004-2010. But nothing like the last 10 years have been. It's been a really awful time for snow lovers anywhere in the Carolina's outside the mtns
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I was born in '73 (actually, a week before the bonanza Southeastern snowstorm), and I recall some fun storms in '78 (mainly ice), '79, and two in '80 (storms about 3 1/2 weeks apart - early February and March 1st-2nd storm). We had storms in '82, '83 (late March), and then a bit of a lull as nothing transpired in '84 other than a brief flurry/light snow in '85. Nothing in '86, unfortunately. We had an ice storm in early January of '87 if my mind serves me well. A January snowstorm storm in '87 where we picked up about 2" and another one a few weeks later with light snow for about an hour or two with only grassy accumulations.

We also had snow in April of '87 where it snowed for a couple of hours with no accumulations. Just by it being April made it exciting, although there wasn't much to write home about. The following year was the January '88 thriller.

We barely missed out on the Christmas '89 snowstorm that walloped the eastern and coastal areas of SC and NC. We had a few hours of sleet, freezing rain, and very little snow with that one.

The late 70's and 80's were some good times.
 
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The snow was spectacular last night up on Cat. Unfortunately the slush will commence the next few days.

I appreciate everyone's long range breakdowns on potentials, but what I take to the bank is warmer then initially modeled days early next week. Hopefully we do indeed get colder the second half of the month.
 
If this-

A) Is still here Monday
B) GFS keeps being passed around like a football on Carolina Beach by the EURO/CMC
C) Starts showing Cadillac runs soon

I don’t wanna hear anything from about 5 of you on here. Crying every model run or trolling, You will be seen as the people that leave a Ballgame at halftime bc your team is down so you go get drunk in the parking lot and try to Get back in when they cut the lead to 7 with 4 to play. Nah, don’t be like that …. No UNC , Lakers, Yankees fans now lol


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I tried to have a Brad P obsession thread but it got locked :(
 
I had to look up ------------- since you are talking about him regularly. It seems that most folks in the Charlotte area think he is a really good met.
 
------------- grew up in Northeast Ohio so i'm sure he isn't impressed with the little snow events the southeast gets. He probably laughs at people getting worked up over an inch or two.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Is this your way of telling me you’re worried about suppression? ?View attachment 145888
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That cmc run you posted is 50% chance everything shears ots 50% chance you get a phase and someone loses their ruler in the snow.
This is appetizing but it's sweaty until go time
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Can we at least use our snow shovels on the pollen?

We out here tracking snow and Brad tracking pollen counts. ?‍♂️

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I don’t think I can watch another storm go south and be so weak again. Where are the juiced up storms at when you need them?
 
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