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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

I highly suggest you guys start to use this model:

FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day...
arxiv.org arxiv.org

Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.
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My favorite things about this place

#1 it didn't snow yesterday so it's never going to snow again.
#2 ensemble means can't be trusted until they can then they can't
#3 illogical posts carry more weight than well thought out ones
#4 winter starts on October 1st but ends December 1st.
#5 a good pattern or pattern change didn't result in roof collapsing snow so it didn't change.
#6 things that were championed as a Holy grail pattern don't mean ---- once someone gets in their feels
#7 when someone mentions a good pattern or a model suite shows a good one it's the best until #5 happens
#8 #7 happens then #5 happens this causes #3 to happen which leads to a combo of #2,4,6.
#9 then it snows or winter ends and the cycle starts over


Edit forgot a few more

#10 it's warm on x date winter is over
#11 dew points are 3 degrees colder than forecast 72 hours before a system the models are busting
#12 cad always over performs
#13 x storm snuck up on us decades ago so this one will too
#14 it's never been x warm x dew point on x date arrrrrghhh
#15 the euro isn't what it used to be
#16 model bias x is why!
#17 random twitterologist repost
#18 poor model with a real known bias shows preferred outcome it must be right this time!
#19 every system from 12/1-6/1 must be a snow storm or severe event
 
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SD said:
My favorite things about this place

#1 it didn't snow yesterday so it's never going to snow again.
#2 ensemble means can't be trusted until they can not then they can't
#3 illogical posts carry me weight than well thought out ones
#4 winter starts on October 1st but ends December 1st.
#5 a good pattern or pattern change didn't result in roof collapsing snow so it didn't change.
#6 things that were championed as a Holy grail pattern don't mean ---- once someone gets in their feels
#7 when someone mentions a good pattern or a model suite shows a good one it's the best until #5 happens
#8 #7 happens then #5 happens this causes #3 to happen which leads to a combo of #2,4,6.
#9 then it snows or winter ends and the cycle starts over


Edit forgot a few more

#10 it's warm on x date winter is over
#11 dew points are 3 degrees colder than forecast 72 hours before a system the models are busting
#12 cad always over performs
#13 x storm snuck up on us decades ago so this one will too
#14 it's never been x warm x dew point on x date arrrrrghhh
#15 the euro isn't what it used to be
#16 model bias x is why!
#17 random twitterologist repost
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Did he forget anything? @Kitty Bump
 
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If the snow gods keep showing out like this they’re going to owe us so much they’ll never be able to pay it off. They’ll have to pay us off in a board wide lump sum. Feels like a 1,000 year snowstorm is coming in the next 5 years tbh
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Look in the mirror and think about this hobby for a second. For 3 ****ing months we checked models 4x a day and looked at soundings, weeklies, strat warming, frozen meteor smoke, MJO, NAO, EPO, PNA, 250mb wind, MSLP, 500mb, etc… we did ALL of that and searched and scratched and clawed and tracked an INVISIBLE storm that NEVER HAPPENED. I don’t know what this is anymore.
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It’s hard to even call this a hobby when we literally have zero control over the final outcome. It’s just like tuning into to a bad movie and expecting it’ll be different this time.
 
lexxnchloe said:
No snow, no canes. Something has to happen eventually
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More likely hurricanes. Wilmington will not go too long without one of them getting close. I keep hearing that this hurricane season will be rough so this might be the year.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ummm that looked pretty good to me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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No complaints but that’s just kind of the route it took. I’m going to move this into the banter thread bc it’s a 300hr run but still fun to look at. Nice fantasy output no doubt
IMG_6540.gif
 
Kitty Bump said:
O no you d'ont to getting us involving IN YOU litst
Sid diong it a fine Job? ? but if you q wqnting to going to addig sun angels to y9u list fell free,) You holiday hounddog days massage from Kittybump potsed on #x

grammar /
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Should I believe all this model hype kitty? You think it's going to snow ?? What about Columbia and Orangeburg?
 
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