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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

BullCityWx said:
I know it's cliche if there was ever an event that we have no idea where it's going before it's properly sampled, this is it.
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I actually had typed up a post about this last night but elected not to considering the board mood. But because this event hinges on a northern stream injection and the ridge extends well north into barren obs land, it is quite possible that weakly sampled energy could trend stronger down the home stretch. If we keep the synoptic setup largely the same, this one could have a fourth quarter surprise.

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Most boring weather ever. Literally nothing happening in the entire 48 except for some snow on highest peaks of the apps!!! Come on with it! Old winter must have died.
 
Even out here its nearly 2 weeks before we even have a chance apparently. We still need about 7 inches for our average snowfall ?
 
rburrel2 said:
Anybody else feel like they have absolutely no clue how this is going to pan out?
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Yes. Waiting to see if some of the old trends return or the new trend ensconces more--or--we get some monster blend of both.
 
KyloG said:
Didn't you get a big snow from a deep ULL in October a few years ago?
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That thing was in 2014 and it was a feast or famine scenario. 2 miles down the road were in 4+ inches, and the other basically nothing.
 
Snow Sucks! said:
That thing was in 2014 and it was a feast or famine scenario. 2 miles down the road were in 4+ inches, and the other basically nothing.
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A lot people don't realize about that storm, i think people just assumed it snowed in all of the Midlands. In Irmo, it was raining. Lexington points West, paste job of snow. The cold pocket aloft of air was about 30 to 40 miles wide & you had to be directly under it.
 
Along I-20 we need cold air well in place to the South for things to work out. Like, we are talking 850s at -3c+ over I-20 to the coast.

Generally, that lets us edge out Wintry precipitation, but it tends to keep appreciable precipitation away from Upstate/NC.

This is why maybe I seem even more pessimistic more-so than not, because I am looking at the cold push in this area. Things haven't looked absolutely atrocious for further North areas until recently, and even then, it's still probably some Wintry weather asunder for them.
 
Everything is perfectly fine. We have the (wrong anytime it doesn't show Winter weather) Icon model today.
 
And another thing. Why isn't anyone using the NBM for this Icon event?

I have been exclusively using the NBM and it's dang near 100% so far on the season for mby. It even had a 6% chance of ZR here for the pending Icon event. Of course, that has dwindled to 3% now.

In other words, the NBM is better than all the operational models everyone is using, IMO so far this season, at least.

The NBM has 7% of a trace of ZR for CLT and 12% greater than 1 inch of snow.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The Euro's going to come around soon and I guarantee you there will be 2 more pages on this thread after it runs.
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Nope. At 114 hours, it's much warmer at 850mb in eastern U.S. This one is dead. Why am I even analyzing this one anymore? It's not even close to producing snow/sleet/ice near me.
 
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Any takers on when this cuts? My money is by tomorrow night's 00z runs.

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