Whenever we have precip it's always lack of cold that's the problem if we're looking for snow. I am sure we'll have plenty of precip and supression won't be an issue. It will just be rain and in the 40s.
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Encountered a roach early this morning. 
That’s enough of the warm weather considering that. Let’s get back to the freezing temps overnight now (only gonna get my wish tonight for now).
That’s enough of the warm weather considering that. Let’s get back to the freezing temps overnight now (only gonna get my wish tonight for now).
Heelyes
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Oconeexman
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I eluded to this the other day when we had all the positive trends. We're seeing now what could go wrong and the results. Happens every time when possible cad set ups are on the table. Id expect another day of bad trends then the turn midweek to a plausible solution. Hopefully it heads back the favorable way...we shall see
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We need a feature like clippy on office that asks you if you're sure you want to make that post or not.
Yeah or a delay like outlook has where you can think about it and stop it before it sends
Feels like this one is probably cooked. Don’t worry though. We still have a 9 day window But if we don’t score in that window chances are it will be Jan 2025 and you will still be looking back at 2022 as your last measurable snow. It will continue to compound from there.
With next year being a nina we better score in Nov dec Jan, I'm already punting Feb 25
Cary_Snow95
Member
What’s funny is we never really got all that many runs that gave us snow here on the ops. Every cycle was “tweak this an inch and it’s a monster”. Then the next run would make a huge step in that direction and it still wouldn’t show snow. “One more change like that and it’s a monster”. It’d be nice to get a legit threat under 5 days where it’s showing snow but thermals are the concern
I would suggest the word 'suppression' be banned on this forum.
rburrel2
Member
You folks in NC have a 2+ inch snow mean on the GEFS may not want to be complaining that this threat is over.
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It's the same cast of characters. Always.
First year ninas can go harder than they should in the first 2/3rds of the season. I have some optimism that mid Dec-late January next year is as good as we've seen in 5-10 years
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Does anyone think the period between now and early March could be even wilder than 2015 ?
Things don’t work like they used to so no probably not
SnowNiner
Member
I swear yesterday at this time we were optimistic...and then today we woke up and realized we live in the SE and we often track snow events that comfortably evolve into drenching rains.
things nosedived the moment the old heads came on to gas up the storm and i said the word "unimpeachable" we never learn
Kitty Bump
Member
Did you encounting him in the wild or in you hose. ? He# He probability to looking to look for q scrape of food.Encountered a roach early this morning.
That’s enough of the warm weather considering that. Let’s get back to the freezing temps overnight now (only gonna get my wish tonight for now).
SnowNiner
Member
Going from worry about suppression across the board, to complete lack of cold air in one model suite is mind blowing. I don't think the NFL is rigged but sometimes I think Southern weather models are.
NCSNOW
Member
pic of the day. Light snow falling still NW NC. The warm weather thawed the ole lake back out
I’ll level with y’all in the Carolinas and Georgia outside of elevation.. At this point I’d set a little money aside for a chase. I know some of you guys have kids and if you’re like me it bothers you that you’re missing out on some key years to really enjoy a good snowstorm with them. Go chase.
NoSnowATL
Member
Sugar just surpassed their seasonal snowfall average overnight. Still a solid 2 month window for them to add on.
That's a long drive man.
I never ever worry about supression...we always have to worry about if there is enough cold air...always.
Heck, just stop in Vegas and call it a win
That's a long drive man.
Who's going to do the play-by-play extrapolating the 50/50 low from the 12Z NAM?
Yeah, my son just got back to Boone to start weekly classes. Left at 5am and got to the Walmart parking lot at 8am, to then take the AppleCart (bus) to the college. But as soon as he got there he found out the AppleCart was delayed, and classes have moved to online. He then had to race back to the house so he could login in time.
Save the money & enjoy the big one in Mid to late February. She coming man... She comin.
Honestly we will find a way to screw that up too
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, I'm starting to come to that realization, that I'm going to have to take quick weekend trips to the mountains to let them enjoy snow. Keeping an eye out this year especially. Mountains seemed to having a great year.
Oconeexman
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I love your optimism Mitch! Sometimes that's good to hear esp after a down set of model runs.
Thank you! No reason to let the let the past wiffs & let downs get to you in the present. Way to many post on here & on social media are driven off past frustrations. We are talking about the weather. In my opinion, either stay neutral or positive on it. Neutral is keeping it real & I can appreciate that. But just commenting off frustration from past let downs & taking it out on others (which is done at times) seems ridiculous. Now i can see how someone being overly positive can be annoying also, especially to the point where you are ignoring the obvious. But man just sit back & enjoy the ride. We will all be eating pizza & celebrating at some point in February.
Well Jimbo I'd say it's probably because it's likely at this point. 70% of our snow falls before Feb 15th. It's looking very likely we get to that date with nothing. So I guess we have a 30% chance left? Probably not how that works though but it sounds good, or bad depending on how you look at it ???
Oconeexman
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Well said brother! I fully expected a series of bad trends at this time frame. I believe @Rainmentioned this as well. Ive been tracking and following weather boards for many years and can count on 1 hand the times that a threat has shown a snowstorm for 8-10 days straight. Typically we have a signal and everything looks like a go then to show a series of runs where we lose the cold or storm track takes an unfavorable track. Just to show us what's still possible. These waves aren't sampled yet and then in that 3-4 day window trends start going the right way. I wouldn't give up until Thursdays model runs if there's a consensus of lack of cold air or suppression. And even then if the temps are borderline we are still talking a Cad set up which is very hard to nail down by models. So if we still have the storm and temps are really close going into Friday there's still a chance!