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Misc Winter Weather Support Group

Cad Wedge NC said:
I am trying to take your advice from yesterday and think positive. However, it is becoming more and more difficult when everything trends downhill as we approach verification time.
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Why do we even trust the models anymore? I believe it's going to happen no matter what they say. Just a feeling. xxoo⛄❄️☃️
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am trying to take your advice from yesterday and think positive. However, it is becoming more and more difficult when everything trends downhill as we approach verification time.
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Yeh I have my moments also. But personally have a came a long way hahaha. The Winter of 2017/2018 still gets me sometimes where every location in the South & Southeast got measurable Winter weather except Columbia. But I am going to stay positive. Weather is going to do what it do.
 
A trip down memory lane:

Georgia Weather History for January 10th​

In 2011, one of the most significant winter storms to affect north and central Georgia in years began on the evening of the 9th and continued through much of the 10th. Four to eight inches of snow was common across most of north Georgia north of I-20. South of I-20 and into central Georgia, there was a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Major interstates and roads were impassable across north Georgia for 2 to 3 days and many schools were closed for the entire week.
 
Mitch West said:
We need a reassurance post from @Myfrotho704_ & @Webberweather53 & @griteater regarding Fab February again. We are going to need one at least every other day.

Warm regards,
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+PNA/Aleutian low is coming. There’s no other way around it. AK block retrograding to Siberia is gonna add a bunch of momentum to the pacific jet and bring back the pac trough/Aleutian low. Maybe we delay it because overextension, but it’s gonna happen. I think the biggest challenge is lining something up during the SE during that pattern lol
 
Wow somehow the wind got the kids trampoline over both of our cars and into the other side of the yard. Impressive. I have no idea how it was able to get high enough to go over the cars.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
+PNA/Aleutian low is coming. There’s no other way around it. AK block retrograding to Siberia is gonna add a bunch of momentum to the pacific jet and bring back the pac trough/Aleutian low. Maybe we delay it because overextension, but it’s gonna happen. I think the biggest challenge is lining something up during the SE during that pattern lol
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And then the track will be over southern Georgia and CAE remains sleet and fr rain. Lolz

For real though, for us down here around I 20 dealing with warmer advection, we need a system traveling across North central Florida with an arctic type front already in place along with some supportive cad. It takes so much here, and it's always been that way for pure sn. ?
 
KyloG said:
It's going to snow east of the mountains with this pattern...it just is...it has to...I think

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If it actually turns out to look like that, and it doesn't snow on us, or at least give us a trackable threat, I give up. I don't know what else we need and I'm wasting my time and energy honestly. Hoping the snow means on the ensembles start to at least creep up modestly.
 
I'm just looking at the writing on the wall... We have little to no chance with the day 6 threat east of the apps... then if you look for a day 9-10 threat on ensembles (b/c no operationals have shown anything all week), other than a couple freezing rain events 95% of them don't show any wintry for us. (I guess there's a tiny bit of snow noise on the Canadian ensembles, but bleh).

Then you have fairly good consensus the pattern is going to re-schuffle post day 12 in to something not conducive for us, (all the ensembles have us moderating to above normal temps then).

That gets us in to January 23/24th or so, Not good.

Other than a really lucky break in our favor with modeling the next few days, we're now looking in to the February Webb window for something.
 
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