rburrel2
Member
But there's no doubt we're finishing above normal precip/below normal temps for January across the board. So there's that
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Misc Winter Weather Support Group
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Agreed...it doesn't necessarily have to snow in Raleigh but snow somewhere from in GA/SC/NC get a small 1-2" to get one on the scoreboard. Pattern is going to relax and we are looking at end of January before we could see a more favorable pattern develop again.
rburrel2
Member
Here's proof our goose is cooked around the January 23rd timeframe and the few days beyond... look at that consensus!
rburrel2
Member
Hot take... this pattern/block has never looked good for us, It's developing too far north towards the pole. It's in a great spot to deliver cold and snow to Canada and New England.
Usually you'd assume it's still a great look as modeled b/c it is going to eventually retrograde west as it breaks down, which is typically money for us, but it seems like we're going to have a solid week+ where it's stationary,(too far north), then when it finally retrogrades west and the vortex kicks east, that's going to happen at rocket ship speed and leave us with a very short window for something good.(and no modeling is showing anything capitalizing on that short window so far other that a little noise on CMCE and a few GEFS members showing some nuisance level freezing rain events).
Usually you'd assume it's still a great look as modeled b/c it is going to eventually retrograde west as it breaks down, which is typically money for us, but it seems like we're going to have a solid week+ where it's stationary,(too far north), then when it finally retrogrades west and the vortex kicks east, that's going to happen at rocket ship speed and leave us with a very short window for something good.(and no modeling is showing anything capitalizing on that short window so far other that a little noise on CMCE and a few GEFS members showing some nuisance level freezing rain events).
Not sure why but it seems like mid January give us something like this in nino's. Saw it in 2010 and 2015.
if it were too fart north we wouldn't be shearing everything to pieces after day 7
rburrel2
Member
Meh, that's more a product of TPV stalling too far west over Canada. Shift the block south and it can't hang out there for a week anymore.
This is a horrible location for the TPV to be for us to score. Just looking at that map you'd think we would evolve in to a solid window with a banging pattern. But for whatever reason we drew the short straw and somehow it gets hung up just like that for a long time and then rapidly breaks down, (shrinking our window to a very short period).
But hey, maybe something will change on the modeling today and things will look better. It just looks really bleak right now, imo.
rburrel2
Member
That is wild how well it matches up with what's being advertised.
GoDuke
Member
I had Grandmas French toast breakfast this morning at Cracker Barrel. It was Awesome.
you know what they say. good winters snow. great winters cover the spread
Oh no, I hope this doesn't put us back to square one in the snowpack2023™ department.
Typical for overextension later on in ninos in late jan before the early Feb +PNA. Get a compilation of Feb strong ninos and that’s what you end up with
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Well we better hope something pops up in Jan. I've done some digging and if we don't get on the board in Jan history says there will be no Fab Feb. Fab Febs are reserved for winters already on the board by then.
There have been 33 years where GSP has only recorded at TR or less through Feb 1st. Only 4 have finished above the current 30 year average of 4.7 inches.
1893-94 7.0"
1894-95 14.5"
1926-27 9.7"
1928-29 5.6"
Only 2 have finished close to average. Above 4 inches but less that the 4.7"
1898-99 4.3"
2008-09 4.4"
17 finished with less than 1 inch total. So the remaining 10 finished between 1-4 inches. Not exactly encouraging looking at the long range. If we reach Jan 25th and have no snow and no hope through Feb 1st I'm hanging it up for a good winter because the data days it's an unrealistic expectation at that point. Sure it may snow but it'll likely only be a novelty event and nothing major. This is for GSP only maybe RDU and other have better stats. But I think CLT is similar.
I just hope to see 1300m
Carolina Sky
Member
I don't think it matters even if we have a "good pattern," or if it's Nina or Nino. It's just timing and luck to get snow here. I have seen people talk about how good the pattern looks over the years and we still ended up with nothing.
I’ll be honest I’m starting to think all that fab Feb talk is gonna end up being a huge disappointment. We will see.
It is unless we get something this month. And that's looking less likely with each passing day. See my latest post in this thread to see why the odds are against us
I assume this data is all winters and not nino ones?Of course the nino ones may look worse. If nino winters where we do not score before Feb 1st follow by showing a poor feb snow performance then we might need to adjust our expectations.
Bro you got to change that profile pic. Tiger looks like he is staring into my soul. @Myfrotho704_