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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

This is also how a typical southern winter event seems to play out for many of us. Models never hold onto a solution 7-10 days out, and then they start to sniff something in this timeframe, and before you know it we have a credible threat on our hands. Not saying that happens with this one, but that’s how all of our events play out it seems.
 
Yeah, if we get snow here it's not something that the models hold onto for a week beforehand. Usually they show a threat in the long range, then it's a lot of back and forth, and then slowly they come around 48 to 24 hours out.
 
We in that 4-5 day GFS goes out to bar mode... expect 3-4 more similar runs before auto correct takes place
 
Yeah, GFS is a meh, Oh Canada! on the CMC.
gem_asnow_seus_22.png
 
The Canadian is much slower w/ the disturbance than the GFS op which may partially explain why it's further north & west... The GFS has been trending slower and slower every run the past few days so it wouldnt surprise me if it came back NW towards what the Euro and CMC currently have
 
It's interesting to see a potential threat here in south central Georgia this early in the season. In my 20 years of living here, the earliest snow I remember was 1/2/2002. Our better chances, if any, seem to be in the mid-January to mid-February timeframe. Just to see some flakes flying in early December would be a win...any accumulation would be the icing on the cake! Thanks to everyone for the model analysis. Back to watching and reading :)
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Canadian is much slower w/ the disturbance than the GFS op which may partially explain why it's further north & west... The GFS has been trending slower and slower every run the past few days so it wouldnt surprise me if it came back NW towards what the Euro and CMC currently have
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I'm willing to bet that the OP is a SE outlier and that the GEFS is more NW
 
Robert West said:
Late Jan 2014 had a similar situation, except there was much more cold air involved. But everything looked suppressed then within 24-48 hours, everything started shifting to the NW.
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Same thing happened in Feb 2010 when things were supprssed all the way down to Cuba and models eventually trended NW and then a classic deep south snowstorm happened.
 
Robert West said:
Late Jan 2014 had a similar situation, except there was much more cold air involved. But everything looked suppressed then within 24-48 hours, everything started shifting to the NW.
Click to expand...

Fayetteville was in the bullseye of 4-8"+ inches of snow the night before and then we actually got a bunch of sleet instead, sleet was reported for a considerable period of time as far north as RDU where there was no mention of mixed precipitation lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fayetteville was in the bullseye of 4-8"+ inches of snow the night before and then we actually got a bunch of sleet instead, sleet was reported for a considerable period of time as far north as RDU where there was no mention of mixed precipitation lol
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I remember haha. We only ended up with about 2.5 inches of snow in the Columbia area. The big one came a couple weeks later.
 
RollTide18 said:
Same thing happened in Feb 2010 when things were supprssed all the way down to Cuba and models eventually trended NW and then a classic deep south snowstorm happened.
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Yeah on the GFS...which was craving Cuban Cigars. The Euro held steadfast as well as the rest of the lot and as the event drew closer, the GFS caught up.
That pattern in 2010 was a complete anomaly though. Researching past events revealed there wasn't a setup remotely similar to the one that occurred on the 11th-12th.

On a side note: charleston WFO picked up 3.4" of snow. 6" in my region of Summerville SC...most of it fell in 5 hours.
 
Even the met down here said they may have to monitor the potential for a brief wintry mix. Honestly surprised that he said it.
 
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