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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Parker said:
Enough to keep me interested. Would like to euro to give me a nice run to really keep me into the threat. E14 and I’m good for the winter hah.
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We all say we'd be happy but I bet you the next storm that rolls around we all still want more snow. It's like eating a bag of potato chips. In the northern US after seeing snowstorms for months on end it's akin to leaving the bag open for a few months, after a while they go stale, soggy, and just quite frankly get annoying. Here it happens often enough to where we get one or two and it just makes us hungrier and wish we had more. The old saying of "I betcha can't eat just one" rings true in the south when it comes to winter storms
 
A chance of snow has been added for the Northern Midlands from KCAE. This is going to come down to how close, and how much moisture can be lingering around as the cold air sweeps through. Yeah, there could be a bigger surprise for some, but I'd like to see a lot more members from both the GEFS and EPS showing a bigger event to feel confident about it for my SC friends.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We all say we'd be happy but I bet you the next storm that rolls around we all still want more snow. It's like eating a bag of potato chips. In the northern US after seeing snowstorms for months on end it's akin to leaving the bag open for a few months, after a while they go stale, soggy, and just quite frankly get annoying. Here it happens often enough to where we get one or two and it just makes us hungrier and wish we had more. The old saying of "I betcha can't eat just one" rings true in the south when it comes to winter storms
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That is a very true statement:cool:
 
Shawn said:
A chance of snow has been added for the Northern Midlands from KCAE. This is going to come down to how close, and how much moisture can be lingering around as the cold air sweeps through. Yeah, there could be a bigger surprise for some, but I'd like to see a lot more members from both the GEFS and EPS showing a bigger event to feel confident about it for my SC friends.
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Yeah the 12z GEFS certainly left a lot to be desired for SC...


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Shawn said:
A chance of snow has been added for the Northern Midlands from KCAE. This is going to come down to how close, and how much moisture can be lingering around as the cold air sweeps through. Yeah, there could be a bigger surprise for some, but I'd like to see a lot more members from both the GEFS and EPS showing a bigger event to feel confident about it for my SC friends.
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Since yesterday, FFC added Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday to a chance of rain/snow showers here. Their confidence in the first good chance of seeing something is increasing it seems.

Here is what most of the offices in the SE believe.
Wx33_midatlantic.png
 
Here is the UKMET. These series of images, you can see off the coast of SC the formation of a weaker low, and then by the last image see various areas of lower pressure where there is multiple pieces of energy trying to get precipitation involved for areas of SC & especially NC. Any of these could be more of a surprise than what's shown (also, as Stormsfury alluded to):


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Man, CMC looked great for me. Please please please!!
 
Shawn said:
A chance of snow has been added for the Northern Midlands from KCAE. This is going to come down to how close, and how much moisture can be lingering around as the cold air sweeps through. Yeah, there could be a bigger surprise for some, but I'd like to see a lot more members from both the GEFS and EPS showing a bigger event to feel confident about it for my SC friends.
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ForsythSnow said:
Since yesterday, FFC added Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday to a chance of rain/snow showers here. Their confidence in the first good chance of seeing something is increasing it seems.

Here is what most of the offices in the SE believe.
Wx33_midatlantic.png
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Lol it's pretty obvious which NWS office is the stubborn hold out at the moment... *cough* RAH
 
12z GEFS 24 accumulated precip much drier and southeast at 00z Sat than many prior runs. Not sure the NW trend is going to happen this time.
 
Nomanslandva said:
12z GEFS 24 accumulated precip much drier and southeast at 00z Sat than many prior runs. Not sure the NW trend is going to happen this time.
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The GEFS is underdispersive and usually produces solutions that are way too similar to the op, it's also much faster with the storm system in comparison to the UKMET, CMC, and even the progressive NAVGEM... I definitely wouldn't toss out a classical last second NW trend just because the GFS (and to a lesser extent) its ensemble suite are losing the storm in the medium range (as usual)
 
After last years 1/6/17 storm, don’t put too much stock in the GEFS. Had all members giving me atleast 3 inches of snow. Ended up with a goose egg.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
After last years 1/6/17 storm, don’t put too much stock in the GEFS. Had all members giving me atleast 3 inches of snow. Ended up with a goose egg.
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It screwed me pretty hard too. Every member had 3+ inches on it and we got nothing but ice and sleet!
 
packfan98 said:
Does the Euro still have a bias of holding energy in the SW too long?
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It's very possible that could be the case however given that the changes have been actually in association w/ the longwave centered further NE over the Lakes and the Plains and that the slowing of the southern piece has been evident in all suites, plus we're inside 72 hours I think it's a legit solution
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's very possible that could be the case however given that the changes have been actually in association w/ the longwave centered further NE over the Lakes and the Plains and that the slowing of the southern piece has been evident in all suites, plus we're inside 72 hours I think it's a legit solution
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Isn't the "sw bias" due to higher resolution problems? If so, the Canadian has been tweaked around 4dVAR or something along those lines and very well could be suffering from the same thing, if the idea is even true at all.
 
Shawn said:
Isn't the "sw bias" due to higher resolution problems? If so, the Canadian has been tweaked around 4dVAR or something along those lines and very well could be suffering from the same thing, if the idea is even true at all.
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The slow bias on the ECMWF in the southwestern US especially beyond the medium range (beyond day 4-5) is related to its tendency to over-amplify shortwaves there that ultimately causes them to slow down, which is realized as a trough that hangs back in this region... It also has issues handling high level sources of heat and tends to hold anomalous air masses too long over the Rockies
 
Would be nice to get an event before Christmas here in the South. 1989 all over again would be nice except a tad bit more NW.
 
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