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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

deltadog03 said:
GA.... Hmmmm
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Yup, GA isn't out of the question. As of now if anything, it will probably not be anything significant outside of the mountains. It just depends how much further the moisture will reach inland.

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WeatherWatch said:
Yup, GA isn't out of the question. As of now if anything, it will probably not be anything significant outside of the mountains. It just depends how much further the moisture will reach inland.

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Still dangerous, IMO, to say "probably not anything significant outside of the mountains" to the public. While that's often the case, until we can be sure, any flip can cause the effects here to be significant.

In terms of the public, I really like to approach the issue with outlining what COULD happen given the setup, climate, model trends, etc. To the public, "probably not anything significant outside of the mountains" means "flurries here.. nothing more.. no need to be vigilant".

BTW- I'm not attacking you or anything, i'm just saying that when approaching the public it may be misleading to every say that kind of thing when significant impacts are actually on the table as far south as Atlanta, imo. Doesn't mean I think they'll happen, just saying that we cannot discount it.

That's what bothers me about Chandley saying "0% chance of snow in Metro".
 
Pretty typical cold rain sounding for mby. Need to beat that bl
db86b631fcc625c749c5c686371a0d92.jpg


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SD said:
Pretty typical cold rain sounding for mby. Need to beat that bl
db86b631fcc625c749c5c686371a0d92.jpg


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Am I the only one who finds it strange that the isothermal layer is at ~ -1 to -2C and not 0C on the GFS soundings? If so this probably argues that the melting layer would get shift little closer to the surface, regardless it likely won't be enough to matter and/or offset the possible changes in LP track that could occur if current trends in NWP continue.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Am I the only one who finds it strange that the isothermal layer is at ~ -1 to -2C and not 0C on the GFS soundings? If so this probably argues that the melting layer would get shift little closer to the surface, regardless it likely won't be enough to matter and/or offset the possible changes in LP track that could occur if current trends in NWP continue.
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Actually I was looking at that earlier and thinking how weird it would be to have 850's and 925's both <0C and still have rain at the surface. The only thing I could attribute it to was the southwest flow vs the usual northeast flow. This is a strange set-up and one that would be outside the realm of usual synoptic snowstorms for the southeast. It's still too far out for me to feel comfortable even out here in the foothills.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Actually I was looking at that earlier and thinking how weird it would be to have 850's and 925's both <0C and still have rain at the surface. The only thing I could attribute it to was the southwest flow vs the usual northeast flow. This is a strange set-up and one that would be outside the realm of usual synoptic snowstorms for the southeast. It's still too far out for me to feel comfortable even out here in the foothills.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't that setup usually indicate zr ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Am I the only one who finds it strange that the isothermal layer is at ~ -1 to -2C and not 0C on the GFS soundings? If so this probably argues that the melting layer would get shift little closer to the surface, regardless it likely won't be enough to matter and/or offset the possible changes in LP track that could occur if current trends in NWP continue.
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To answer your question, yes I do. Usually the isothermal temp is very close to the melting point. It is strange to have it colder than that for such a deep layer. Come to think about it, I don't believe I have ever seen that.
 
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