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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

The system is there, it's just elongated. But as soon as the system makes it just east of Florida (or sooner) the system will start having better circulation (start have the coma look to the system.) Bombogenesis.

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WeatherWatch said:
The system is there, it's just elongated. But as soon as the system makes it just east of Florida (or sooner) the system will start having better circulation (start have the coma look to the system.) Bombogenesis.

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No this is not bombogenesis, the low pressure only deepens about 10 mb in 24 hours. To be a storm that undergoes bombogenesis it has to deepen at least 24 hPa in 24 hours
 
Webberweather53 said:
No this is not bombogenesis, the low pressure only deepens about 10 mb in 24 hours. To be a storm that undergoes bombogenesis it has to deepen at least 24 hPa in 24 hours
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It isn't likely there will be bombogenesis with this system, but it could be possible. As of right now, the NAO doesn't appear that it's going to be significantly negative at the time. I'm sure as you know, there will be blocking north of the system, which would help amplification of the system. The system could get on that boarder line of bombogenesis.

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WeatherWatch said:
It isn't likely there will be bombogenesis with this system, but it could be possible. As of right now, the NAO doesn't appear that it's going to be significantly negative at the time. I'm sure as you know, there will be blocking north of the system, which would help amplification of the system. The system could get on that boarder line of bombogenesis.

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It's possible but not likely enough to where I'd mention it
 
12z GEFS mean MSLP member spread. The output is suggesting that the LP will develop off of the SE coast.The question still remains of how close will the LP get to the coast, and if the LP will develop at a sooner time. There is still time for a NW/W trend. Margin of error within each run.
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I think still a shot at this, but a little less optimistic from today's runs. Still time for sure.
 
Clipper is what will give some hope, this weekend
 
Webberweather53 said:
Models notoriously underestimate the extent and intensity of the precipitation shield on the NW side of Miller A cyclones (esp the GFS), I wouldn't be shocked if we somehow kept the same general look (huge caveat*) that we end up wetter...
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I would agree with that fully
 
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