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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

accu35 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
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Nice, but should go in the December thread.
 
Another possible solution that may occur is, that most places may end up getting overrunning first from the moisture riding along the frontal boundary. Then moisture gets "thrown" in over the SE US and points northeastward as low progresses northeastward.

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bouncycorn said:
What happened in March 1927?
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Came from the NW almost perpendicular to the Apps and we still got obliterated as a monstrous coastal low formed off the SC and probably underwent instant occlusion
Screen Shot 2017-12-03 at 12.11.22 AM.png
March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap .png


Here's a 500 hPa geopotential height, wind, and vorticity animation I made in IDV using the 1 degree ECMWF 20th Century (ERA-20C) reanalysis dataset for the March 1-3 1927 period... Bowling ball, cut-off low comes out of the southwestern US and gets sheared as it comes east in the face of a big vortex over SE Canada. Most of the energy that kicked off this event came out of the northern stream with some vorticity lobes spitting off the main s/w in the southern branch and running out ahead of it

March-1-2-1927-US-500-hPa-vorticity-wind-gph.gif
 
0z GEFS mean MSLP spread. This shows that a LP is embedded, coming across the GOM.
65d0c62d45ec4001e53c55cfa192eeca.gif


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For what it's worth the 06z NAM has a much better push of cold air the the GFS is showing at 18z wednesday
 
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Looks like a little NW trend on the GFS along with a stronger low. It looks like a low may end up forming if this trend continues. I still wouldn't get your hopes up anywhere yet, as it is still too soon. In a few days, we should know what its doing. I am for now more interested in the second system that comes in after. That will guarantee at least a good several flakes. However, get that low closer and maybe a bit slower and we can have a good storm. If you are in E NC, I don't think the NW trend is your friend this time if it decides to start up more.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_21.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_24.png
 
The trend may or may not be in favor for this one, but either way it is a step in the right direction for sure
 
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