Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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I'll take it. Given the overall marginal look if we walked out with a dusting to 1 in the first half of December it's a win.
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Wouldn'tsleep on that trailing powerhouse upper level system either. Steep lapse rates and just enough moisture would squeeze out some rain/snow showers if not a few areas of light precip.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like a few token flakes still manage to fall on the Euro run over RDU before it goes to rain, need heavier precipitation rates to get a rain/snow or heavy snow as is being observed over SE NC
You can see why the gfs was so far NW. It established enough stream separation and delayed the clipper so that we got a negative tilt and a much more expansive NW precip shield.
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Soundings from the gfs aren't bad. We get killed by a warm BL. Dewpoints really jump Thursday night I'm not sure if I buy that 100% right now.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Classic looking isothermal melting layer on this most recent GFS run between 900-700 hPa. Heavier precipitation rates could generate enough melting and sensible heat transfer in the low levels to get us close enough to freezing to go over to a rain/snow mix as the Euro has shown off and on again the past several runs...
WeatherWatch
Member
I think the low pressure will get kicked out from the far southeastern GOM. The 06z GFS OP has the low pressure coming about sooner than the 0z OP run. It could be a trend that the low pressure would come about sooner and a lot further south on the GFS OP.
The 06z GEFS mean pressure supports the idea of a low being suppressed initially in the far southeastern GOM.
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The 06z GEFS mean pressure supports the idea of a low being suppressed initially in the far southeastern GOM.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Im not sure I do either, but regardless if we can get heavy enough precipitation we might be able to override it regardless and still end up w/ some rain-snow or heavy snow. There's little-no in between in this kind of situation, either it's light-moderate cold rain or heavy-very heavy wet snow lol. Of course, precipitation and the latent/sensible heat generated by it is by far & away the hardest variable for the models to forecast for so it may be a few more days yet before we really have a solid grasp on what may generally occur, and even then there will still be huge lingering uncertainties. It's one thing to forecast precipitation, but precipitation intensity is next to impossible and that's what we're going to have to get right to determine precipitation type and amounts most likely...
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, that sounding would clearly indicate a rate-driven event. What's more impressive to me is that the saturation extends up to 300mb. Could be some good rates.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Last 5 EPS runs centered on RDU... Even though the latest's run snowfall mean was less impressive than the 0z suite, it's still higher than the 3 previous suites before that combined and the overall long term trend is still upward. Long ways to go
Ya that's an impressive sounding. We shall see, the window is there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snow cover immediately preceding this event on the 6z GFS. Certainly not as high as I would like to see it (preferably down to I-70), but I've seen much worse...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This 12z GFS is further south & east of the 6z run so far... The 6z GFS was a NW outlier vs other NWP so this isn't too surprising
RollTide18
Member
Quite a bit of moisture in the Gulf
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Way too warm. Definitely would have been nice to have a deeper snow cover to the NW to give us just those critical several extra degrees...
12z gfs still sucks in the BL but certainly went toward the euro vs the 6z run with a flatter wave.
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Yep, but clipper looks much better!
SimeonNC
Member
Eh, I'm still hopeful about this storm, we are still several days out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Worth mentioning even the front that was progged at one point a few days ago on the euro to give us a chance of snow has trended to all rain up to the Canadian border east of the Lakes hopefully this storm doesn't suffer a similar fate