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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

There's another pocket of a sleet/rain mix south of Selma, west of Montgomery moving east, nothing major, just cool as a little appetizer.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Saw elsewhere that the 18z CMC backed off a little bit and wasn't as amped. The LP is further offshore and the 850s are much cooler
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Pretty sure there is no 18z CMC. Only 00z and 12z and the last run was big!
 
Our forecast for Friday night from local tv station here in Pensacola.

Friday night

Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain and snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 28 to 34. North winds 5 to 15 mph.
 
RollTide18 said:
There's another pocket of a sleet/rain mix south of Selma, west of Montgomery moving east, nothing major, just cool as a little appetizer.
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Watching those reports will help show where the cold air is. It's been a real chore in this area to get cold air in deep enough when the rain is around. It's one of the reasons I'm taking all this with a grain of salt. Our saving grace is the boundary will hang around, because if it was a race, the rain always gets out first, lol. In this case a span of 20 or 30 miles can get you in or get you out of the wonderland. I'll be watching the temp reports with some real interest. The cold will get to you first, so I'm pulling for you ;) I've been in the bullseye the whole time, but I've been there before with sad results, more often than not, lol. But on the other hand I've seen much deeper snow here, than I ever did in midtown. It can pay off big being closer to the rain, but the cold has to over perform in terms of speed of coverage. So if ya'll score, my chances go way up, lol.
 
SD said:
The column is already saturated so there is no ability to move below freezing. We would be relying on cold air advection as the system passes to change to snow at the end. We could see areas flip to snow in heavier patches as precip rates wouldn't be as affected by the warm nose.

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I feel like the two phenomena that always never seem to materialize are 1) wet bulbing and 2) changeover


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Cary_Snow95 said:
Saw elsewhere that the 18z CMC backed off a little bit and wasn't as amped. The LP is further offshore and the 850s are much cooler
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It is a smidge better and even looks like a deform band forming as it pulls away.... keep hope alive

P6_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif
 
I go away for 5 hours and come back and this place is deader than a doornail. I guess our big snow is no longer going to happen ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I go away for 5 hours and come back and this place is deader than a doornail. I guess our big snow is no longer going to happen ?
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When there's a storm to track this place is like a hurricane. In between model runs it can get calm like the eye of the storm but when business picks back up it really picks back up!!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I go away for 5 hours and come back and this place is deader than a doornail. I guess our big snow is no longer going to happen ?
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People do this every year thinking it's the end of the world either for :

1. An event that never was going to happen in their backyard at all
2. People are freaking out that a sudden shift will happen
3. People are just waiting on the next model like it matters more than anything else.

I honestly feel right now that if you are in the range that we are looking at, hope you are at least 20 miles NW of the change over line predicted, as that will likely be the disappointment belt. Atlanta may get a sleetfest from the soundings on the NAM, or may just barely get by.
DadOfJax said:
A "big snow" never was going to happen.
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That's the way a lot of mets think. I reasonably say nobody is getting more than 3 inches across all of the southeast with this storm. If I score an inch and a half or more, it's a big snow. Just remember that the next 48 hours will flip to the globals becoming unreliable and the NAM and other short range models take over, so it's time to stick the crazy uncle and stubborn GFS aside starting tomorrow midday.
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Can we keep the banter down? These 0z runs are huge
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I agree as the 0Z is starting up soon.
 
DadOfJax said:
Based on surface temps, precip rates, faster system, overdone clown snow maps, etc. It's not going to be a "big snow"...it will be fun, as every storm in the South is...just not going to amount to anything big.
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Clown map VS map of reason. Glad Levi came out with these.
nam3km_asnow_seus_61.png

nam3km_asnowd_seus_61.png
 
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