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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Now it's probably going to have something cooking post 54 as it tries to negatively tilt the southern end of the trough. That would probably be too late for most. A great start possibly for the central and eastern parts of nc
 
SD said:
Now it's probably going to have something cooking post 54 as it tries to negatively tilt the southern end of the trough. That would probably be too late for most. A great start possibly for the central and eastern parts of nc
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I'm about to catch the tail end of a nice deform band..... maybe. Finally some sn showing up @60

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nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_45.png

NAM 3K showing much wetter at 45 hr. Is this significant or is it just due to the way each model is shown?
 
Either way, moisture or not, 850s look warmer for many areas.
 
SD said:
Now it's probably going to have something cooking post 54 as it tries to negatively tilt the southern end of the trough. That would probably be too late for most. A great start possibly for the central and eastern parts of nc
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It's trying...
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Too much model agreement at 12Z to jump ship on one run of the Nam. Now if it shows this still at 18Z tomorrow and other models have followed then enjoy a token flake if u get one.
 
bouncycorn said:
Well this run is concerning... to say the least.
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Just took a look at the soundings from that run. Over western NC it shows an extremely dry punch of air at 800-850mb and the air is still saturated above that. Dew points plunge to -25C at 850mb and there is a strong cold nose. I don't buy it. Has to be a bogus run.
 
metwannabe said:
NAM showing some weird stuff with the 850's, that pocket of colder moves ne then they warm before starting to come back down
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I think the reason you're seeing that is because there's a relative break between the two weak waves of low pressure along the arctic boundary and this area of cooler 850s corresponds to where its not raining, which at nighttime may be allowing for an extra degree or two of radiational cooling that otherwise wouldn't be occurring in areas w/ precipitation but it's a very interesting feature you pointed out and I'm sure there are other mechanisms at play too as well as issues w/ the model forecast itself.
 
RollTide18 said:
This happens in a span of three hours

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_38.png

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_39.png


@deltadog03 @Webberweather53 do y'all buy this?
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Hard to really buy any precipitation forecast this far in advance from a model, especially one w/ a coarse resolution like the 12km NAM that's likely incapable of resolving convection. We'll have to wait until at least later tomorrow evening if this is indeed a legitimate feature on the 3km version of the NAM that could come to pass or is merely random noise
 
I just caught up on 20+ pages since I left for work this morning. I'm glad to come home to some good news, no need to cliff dive yet for a while longer. lol Also the freakout over the NAM, you think I'm really going to hinge everything on what could happen Thursday night/Friday because of the NAM?! It's been stoned just like every other model from one time to another up to this point.
 
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