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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Looks line the wave in the SW might be a little weaker and the nrn stream a little deeper but I'm really splitting hairs

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NAM showing some weird stuff with the 850's, that pocket of colder moves ne then they warm before starting to come back down
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Looks like i85 north Through GA and upstate would be mostly snow. Looksvto me like its cold enough through the column to support snow.

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ForsythSnow said:
Go back and look at the soundings. You may be surprised to find they don't support snow for too long.
Click to expand...

The soundings support snow across the higher accumulation area in AL just about the whole time on the 3km NAM. But that isn't the issue I have. If you have 7 inches fall with a surface temp 33-34 degrees at a high rate, it will accumulate more than an inch. One of his algorithms must be off.

Edit: Unless it is calculated at a lower ratio. That is probably what it is.
 
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I try to stay out of play-by-play because I am FAR from an expert, but the moisture just goes poof from 42 to 45. Maybe a southern outlier? Let's see what the other suites say tonight. Very interesting ...
 
The 00z runs have sucked the past 3 nights. I’m not worried yet. Let’s see what the others say.
 
Looking at individual members of both ensembles that have been posted seems like a really dry solution was possible. Even though means ticked up in some cases, there was much spread in members for 48 hours out. This may be a BS run but there are a lot of crappy ensemble members out there that should be worrisome.
 
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