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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Wasn’t there a similar setup like this last year? Seems like the only real threat we had in AL last year was from a storm that impacted South Central AL with a very similar axis of precipitation and a sharp cutoff line to the NW. I’m in the camp hoping this thing comes more NW
 
but yeah, I've been concerned about temps for yall from the beginning

Same thing here in Texas, temps are too warm in most areas so far compared to how much snow the NAM was showing last night
 
Now with the fact that NAM derives from the GFS and it's currently the most southern of the other 3 models which are feeling each other, Euro, CMC, NAM... I would believe it's southern bias maybe able to called into question at this point due to potential drag of the GFS wonky southern existence...

PS. I give NAM alot of credit in overall impact and track its been on it for days now but believe the GFS is influencing it's southern orientation if I'm looking at all 3 models so I feel a blend of Euro/CMC may very well be most likely
 
deltadog03 said:
Long story is yes the precip shield but we need a good cold push tomorrow
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Yeah, that's what I'm hoping for, the precip will be our neck of the woods, I guess the models trending colder is a positive. It's gonna be a battle zone where I'm at, we could flip many times between snow and rain.
 
The very high resolution Swiss model on weather.us gives next to nothing for most east of the mountains in NC perhaps aside from a light coating of snow. I've been monitoring it's progress over the last few days and it nailed the dew points here in NC. They're currently in the mid-upper 10s, most models (even the HRRR) had upper 20s or higher...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The swiss model is not impressed at all... Nobody gets above an inch east of the mountains but at least there's some snow TV to go around

View attachment 1910
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Is that actual total snowfall or snowfall liquid equivalent? It looks more like liquid equivalent(if using 10:1 ratios, then that broad dark blue area would be 4-6 inches of accumulated snowfall).
 
Ron Burgundy said:
David Chandley just tweeted out the NAM map showing 10” south of ATL metro. This is the same met who said zero chance of snow a few days ago. Somewhere in the middle of denial and hysteria would probably be better for the public...
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I remember that being brought up when no model really showed that much anyway. Can't fault him for that since most mets don't want to be burned on early guidance.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Is that actual total snowfall or snowfall liquid equivalent? It looks more like liquid equivalent(if using 10:1 ratios, then that broad dark blue area would be 4-6 inches of accumulated snowfall).
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No, it's actual snowfall and not liquid equivalent because it lines up w/ its snow depth graphic which is pretty dismal to say the least
Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 5.58.43 PM.png
 
A selfish part of me still wants to see this trend north enough to give the area I'm heading to for Saturday good snow that will stick around (outside of the roads).
 
Gotta love this 18z NAM run. Very interested to see how it looks on 00z.

Whpx1fh.gif


Even if it doesn't verify...
 
I've been in New Orleans since Saturday just heading home to Birmingham tonight. I'm way out of the loop. Could someone tell me what it's looking like for Birmingham and a time frame estimate please. Thanks :)
 
Just looking at the 3k nam soundings the warm nose at 750 is thin them it's freezing or below to near the surface wouldn't be at all shocked to see a lot of sleet. I would like to see a deeper cold layer below the warm nose to really go all in though

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SD said:
Just looking at the 3k nam soundings the warm nose at 750 is thin them it's freezing or below to near the surface wouldn't be at all shocked to see a lot of sleet. I would like to see a deeper cold layer below the warm nose to really go all in though

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Is there not an opportunity to wet bulb there? I know this might’ve been asked like 5000000000000 times but I’m sn quite recall because of that attention deficit problem I may or may not have.
 
The NAM is not backing down on a pretty good winter event for alot of areas. It could be a little overboard on totals though.

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Showmeyourtds said:
Is there not an opportunity to wet bulb there? I know this might’ve been asked like 5000000000000 times but I’m sn quite recall because of that attention deficit problem I may or may not have.
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The column is already saturated so there is no ability to move below freezing. We would be relying on cold air advection as the system passes to change to snow at the end. We could see areas flip to snow in heavier patches as precip rates wouldn't be as affected by the warm nose.

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