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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

metwannabe said:
I hope last night's system isn't a sign of what's to come as far as the amount of precip

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I think the last couple of days before yesterday, totals had been diminished , especially the farther east you got from TN! TN had a 1-2" bubble, everything from there E, was " up to an 1""
 
It's actually not that far off when you look at the NAM composite versus surface reflectivity.

https://postimg.org/image/xp1zy4f6d/


RollTide18 said:
Interesting note is that the Nam is already underestimating the precip

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_1.png

southeast_loop.gif
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This could get good if that NW movement continues. Or precip shield
 
going to have to see if it produces anything late Thursday into Friday am. Looks a bit warm at 850...BL looks better and heavy precipitation rolling through AL And GA mainly south of I-20
 
NAM is underreporting precip. Shows no rain this morning for ATL area BUT....
Here is the live radar view as of 9am:
J60LEcd.jpg

EEb0T
EEb0T.jpg
 
still looks a bit too warm, in areas that have precipitation falling at hour 39
 
NW /N edge definitely not as far N as 6z! Noticeably
 
tractor girl said:
NAM is underreporting precip. Shows no rain this morning for ATL area BUT....
Here is the live radar view as of 9am:
J60LEcd.jpg

EEb0T
EEb0T.jpg
Click to expand...

Some of that precipitation is likely virga over portions of north-central Alabama and the finger of reflectivity protruding towards the metro. Also have to keep in mind w/ base reflectivity, the beam height increases w/ disturbance away from the radar site so as you look further away from Atlanta towards say Alabama you're actually looking up higher aloft where it is raining harder than at the surface
 
The entire trough base in the NAM is becoming less positively tilted as this emerges from Texas w/ the southern stream disturbance speeding up relative to previous 2 runs and the longwave trough axis and accompanying northern stream disturbances slowing down.

Unknown.gif
 
Very minor changes in the upper levels make all the difference at the surface. Like Webber stated the trough is less positive tilted and also a tad deeper across TX. This allows slightly more ridging ahead of it allow better moisture transport north on Friday.

12z NAM...
USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_057.gif


Vs...6z NAM...
USA_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_063.gif
 
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