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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Shawn said:
New 00z Euro:
new.png


Old 12z Euro:
old.png
Click to expand...
looks the same
 
Verbatim I think temperatures are too warm with steady precipitation plus evaporational cooling. Did notice that the TD boundary lags spuriously back into Central GA/SC for quite awhile.
 
The models are starting to come into agreement of the placement of the snowfall. But they're going to be all over the place with the accumulations. For now, I'm going with a 8:1 ratio with this setup. As of now, going with a blend of Euro, CMC and NAM. Will add the GFS into the grid if the GFS comes on board with the other models. Still going with a 30% chance of accumulating snowfall from east central AL, through Atlanta, up towards Upstate SC and into western/central NC. If current trends continue, will bump up the percentage to 80% chance. If any snowfall, it would be a heavy, wet snow because of a moist convective SW flow in the upper levels. Due to the convective SW flow, may have to bump the ratios up.
 
Stormsfury said:
Verbatim I think temperatures are too warm with steady precipitation plus evaporational cooling. Did notice that the TD boundary lags spuriously back into Central GA/SC for quite awhile.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the pbp and welcome to Southernwx!

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
NAM is a lot less snowy in Texas at 42 hours vs the 0z

less precip in general

precip really falling apart at 51. Not even close to last run

57 hours the only snow is near the TX/MX border lol. Heavy snow was falling across E AL/Atlanta last run by now

66 hours snow has been relegated to Mexico.... just some light rain south of Atlanta, no snow anywhere
 
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Through hour 69, pathetic run. Nothing really.. maybe a tad bit around the NC mountains & Far Northern GA. Surface temps, no go on top of all of that.

Glad the NAM decided to go back in line instead of hyping everyone up for no reason again, though.
 
Well, there's actually a good bit of precip past 69, and 850s crashing. Maybe Upstate SC and NC will score again, to a lesser extent, this run.
 
Nam started to get good end of run. Still little snow event for the deep south. Good ways to go with this storm to become worse or better. Not every run will look the same.
 
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Shawn said:
Well, there's actually a good bit of precip past 69, and 850s crashing. Maybe Upstate SC and NC will score again, to a lesser extent, this run.
Click to expand...
I can only imagine if the Nam could have went further in time what it would look like.
 
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I highlighted the first line because it sums up the issue with this event perfectly. I think it's best not to marry yourself to any model's operational run yet. (that includes the EURO) I've seen this song and dance before, always coming down to the last wire....If you still see a token flake(s) flying in the sky you should still consider that a win for December.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Extended forecast continues to be somewhat challenging as enhanced
swath of moisture remains draped across the region, and chilly air
filters in to the state from the northwest. Additionally,
amplified trough will remain positioned over the eastern U.S.,
with several upper level waves embedded within the flow aloft.
The model run-to-run consistency in addition to the individual
model solutions continues to vary on the timing, moisture and
intensity of these waves and the impact to north and central
Georgia. For now, have continued slight chance pops for early
Friday morning, Friday night/Saturday morning, and Saturday
night/Sunday morning, and have indicated light snow or `rain or
snow` in the wx grids. QPF continues to be rather limited, and
have not included any accumulations at this time. The model 850 mb
temperatures continue to be -6 to -8C Saturday and closer to -12C
Sunday morning. These temperatures, combined with sub-freezing
overnight temperatures, will support all snow for any precip that
does develop.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
Meh, GFS has the snowy fring into NC, about CLT and east. Not NAM tactic like last night!
 
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