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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

If there's any good news to take from the 6z GFS, looking at 500mb maps it was slower than 0z.
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I see the nam was more realistic. Such a hard forecast this will be. However, any snow flakes at all is bonus imho
 
Best possible scenario for most in central NC is for an inch maybe at the most two, otherwise just some token flakes to a dusting for a majority. Definitely a lot of EPS members with nothing on this suite
 
I see the nam was more realistic. Such a hard forecast this will be. However, any snow flakes at all is bonus imho
I agree. The NAM is the warmest model on the planet and if it's showing snow then there's at least a chance of it.
 
Keep in mind those maps, include sleet and it wont be 10:1 for many areas.

We won't have to deal with sleet in this scenario, there's no notable warm nose aloft w/ a primary coastal low. Depth of the isothermal melting layer aloft deduced via precipitation rate will be the primary determinant of precipitation type of rain or snow only. The ratios will probably be about 8:1 so we should expect to cut those numbers by about 20% then you have to account for some melting of the initial snow as it tries to stick to the ground plus if the air temp is at or slightly above freezing the snow that does make it on the ground will slowly melt. Probably looking at about 35% loss of snow per liquid equivalent plus or minus 10-15%.
 
DIdnt see this posted but I thought I'd do it. The mean decreased for the 2nd run in a row. Again keep in mind you'll probably have to cut these totals back by at least a third, maybe in half...
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DIdnt see this posted but I thought I'd do it. The mean decreased for the 2nd run in a row. Again keep in mind you'll probably have to cut these totals back by at least a third, maybe in half...
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I would be ecstatic with this as the outcome.
 
As Webb posted, this is likely an rain or snow or combo thing. Maybe a little sleet, but profiles don't support that. Also, IMHO it's going to be heavily driven upon precip rates as well

Yep, exactly. Even if the solution and track of the low pressure center does not change at all in NWP from this point forward, historically the GFS, and even to a lesser extent the Euro are both usually guilty of not pushing the precipitation shield far enough to the NW in this type of situation (& often underestimates precipitation rate), so its certainly possible those along north & west of the heaviest axis of snow on the EPS end up w/ a bit more...
 
Hell I would argue someone might do pretty good where the intersection of the best/heaviest rates and temp profiles are best.
 
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