If there's any good news to take from the 6z GFS, looking at 500mb maps it was slower than 0z.
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packfan98
Moderator
FWIW, the 6z GEFS greatly improved. Maybe someone can post the individual members in a bit.
I see the nam was more realistic. Such a hard forecast this will be. However, any snow flakes at all is bonus imho
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Best possible scenario for most in central NC is for an inch maybe at the most two, otherwise just some token flakes to a dusting for a majority. Definitely a lot of EPS members with nothing on this suite
I agree. The NAM is the warmest model on the planet and if it's showing snow then there's at least a chance of it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We won't have to deal with sleet in this scenario, there's no notable warm nose aloft w/ a primary coastal low. Depth of the isothermal melting layer aloft deduced via precipitation rate will be the primary determinant of precipitation type of rain or snow only. The ratios will probably be about 8:1 so we should expect to cut those numbers by about 20% then you have to account for some melting of the initial snow as it tries to stick to the ground plus if the air temp is at or slightly above freezing the snow that does make it on the ground will slowly melt. Probably looking at about 35% loss of snow per liquid equivalent plus or minus 10-15%.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
DIdnt see this posted but I thought I'd do it. The mean decreased for the 2nd run in a row. Again keep in mind you'll probably have to cut these totals back by at least a third, maybe in half...
As Webb posted, this is likely an rain or snow or combo thing. Maybe a little sleet, but profiles don't support that. Also, IMHO it's going to be heavily driven upon precip rates as well
I would be ecstatic with this as the outcome.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, exactly. Even if the solution and track of the low pressure center does not change at all in NWP from this point forward, historically the GFS, and even to a lesser extent the Euro are both usually guilty of not pushing the precipitation shield far enough to the NW in this type of situation (& often underestimates precipitation rate), so its certainly possible those along north & west of the heaviest axis of snow on the EPS end up w/ a bit more...
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Euro and NAM look good, GFS is getting there. All I want to see is some snow fall with this one. I think I'm in a good spot.
Agreed
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As packfan properly pointed out, the GFS ensemble looked much better on the 6z suite vs 0z, one can certainly hope we can carry this forward into the 12z runs
It would be good to get an early start on winter.
Hell I would argue someone might do pretty good where the intersection of the best/heaviest rates and temp profiles are best.
RollTide18
Member
Hope you guys get something, my area is looking less impressive, oh well on to the next.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
For what it's worth (& it's not worth much), several GFS members give Columbus & Macon, GA a decent hit. Probably won't verify but we can always hope
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The trend has definitely been good since yesterday. As long as they keep showing snow then there's reason to be positive about this one.
E7 is the winner to me.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Ist funny how the daily cycle continues on the models looking bad overnight and becoming fun later in the day. The overall trend is still good, and that's what I'm looking at.