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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

If this gets amped too much, it will pull it NW and warm the temps for most except mountains and extreme western parts, and even they will be close
 
Agreed! Plenty of Virga. NAM is actually not that far off.

Webberweather53 said:
Some of that precipitation is likely virga over portions of north-central Alabama and the finger of reflectivity protruding towards the metro. Also have to keep in mind w/ base reflectivity, the beam height increases w/ disturbance away from the radar site so as you look further away from Atlanta towards say Alabama you're actually looking up higher aloft where it is raining harder than at the surface
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That was a CMC lean . As Webber pointed out, the NAM is trying to crank the system . Of course it could just be the NAM being the NAM over amping things
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is trending towards a more intense storm, the trough axis becoming less positively tilted, the upper level jet juxtaposition looks to be improving over the last few runs and the gulf low is stronger this time by a couple mb
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Yep and if correct we're screwed, look at the waa...
Unless 850's crash later on exit and get something on the backside
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Storm5 said:
That was a CMC lean . As Webber pointed out, the NAM is trying to crank the system . Of course it could just be the NAM being the NAM over amping things
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Storm, I hope we can see some flakes. I want it bad!
 
Storm5 said:
That was a CMC lean . As Webber pointed out, the NAM is trying to crank the system . Of course it could just be the NAM being the NAM over amping things
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The changes that lead to amplification later on have to do more so w/ alterations in the speed of the disturbances early in the run that precipitate later on to changes in the strength of the cyclone off the SE coast, sure you can claim that maybe the diabatically-induced vortex is too strong due to the BMJ convective scheme in the model, etc. but this trend in a stronger storm further NW is prevalent in virtually all suites atm
 
NAM seems to always amp thing sup too much. Probably a blend of the Euro and NAM will work out.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Take the NAM for what it's worth this far out (anything over 36+ hours)...entertainment purposes only. I can't stress enough how bad the NAM (Not Accurate Much) is.
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IDK, its been sticking to its guns. Ive seen Nam win over any other model when it comes to winter weather
 
Don't know how this relates to winter weather but I've seen many times where the NAM over amps lows when it comes to severe weather.
 
RollTide18 said:
Don't know how this relates to winter weather but I've seen many times where the NAM over amps lows when it comes to severe weather.
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As I mentioned earlier this oversimplification of lows is related to the BMJ convective parameterization (CP) in the 12 and 32km versions of the NAM. Extratropical convection is outside the parameter space of this CP which was intended for use in the deep tropics, thus it can't handle cold pools, and isn't as good w/ detrainment.... Here however the NAM's amplification of this low is not exclusively related to its piss poor CP scheme, but wholesale changes in the speed of disturbances within the first 36-48 hours of the run over the southwestern US contributed a lot to its stronger solution here as well. This is inherently easier to predict for a NWP model than diabatic heating induced from convection
 
whatalife said:
LOL! Stupid NAM!
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Yeah for my area that deform band is doing work but here is the more realistic map, huge difference, here anyway but I'm not complaining
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Even though the NAM isn't accurate past 36 hours, you begin to wonder if it is accurate in some cases beyond 36 hrs. Especially if the NAM keeps showing of what it has been showing for the most part over and over, the same similar setup on each run. I wouldn't count out that the NAM is totally inaccurate with this particular system.
 
Brick Tamland said:
The amounts might be too much, but the Euro and the NAM are showing that classic RDU jackpot zone.
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Well at least for now they are. The EPS shifted NW appreciably overnight w/ heaviest snows centered towards the climatologically more favored NW piedmont and if the NAM continues to move towards a solution w/ a stronger coastal low esp once we actually get inside 48 hours from verification that could spell trouble and game over for RDU.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well at least for now they are. The EPS shifted NW appreciably overnight w/ heaviest snows centered towards the climatologically more favored NW piedmont and if the NAM continues to move towards a solution w/ a stronger coastal low esp once we actually get inside 48 hours from verification that could spell trouble and game over for RDU.
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What will be will be. I don't think we get totally blanked. Just seeing snow fall at this stage of winter would be great.
 
whatalife said:
Yeah they do. They are never what they seem.


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The ratios alone will automatically knock down those totals on the clown maps 30% plus or minus 10%, the model here assumes they're all 10:1 which is certainly not going to be the case here... When you then include melting from mixing w/ rain, radiation from the ground, and even once the snow has accumulated, if the air temperature is above freezing, some melting will occur, you lose at least a third to as much as half of the snow
 
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