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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
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To add to what I said earlier, 6z NAM was slower than 0z, but it looked like there was more northern stream influence. I assume that's why it may have been more south/suppressed?
 
Webberweather53 said:
NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
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That's very cool! I hated the SREF! They were terrible in marginal events like we always have in the SE. One member would have nothing and another would have 4 feet! Taking the average of that is pointless. It did seem to work better on NE events that had less variability.
 
packfan98 said:
That's very cool! I hated the SREF! They were terrible in marginal events like we always have in the SE. One member would have nothing and another would have 4 feet! Taking the average of that is pointless. It did seem to work better on NE events that had less variability.
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Exactly, the SREF is usually pretty bad, this HREF product from NCAR should be generally better...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Ist funny how the daily cycle continues on the models looking bad overnight and becoming fun later in the day. The overall trend is still good, and that's what I'm looking at.
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Looking at Trends is almost always the best way to go and not just one individual Suite of model runs. Models are a lot like news outlets you have to understand each one's bias, look at every single one, do some research and come to your own conclusions. Somewhere amongst all of that there is the truth

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
Looking at Trends is almost always the best way to go and not just one individual Suite of model runs. Models are a lot like news outlets you have to understand each one's bias, look at every single one, do some research and come to your own conclusions. Somewhere amongst all of that there is the truth

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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So well said ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
NCAR has created a nice, new high resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) to replace to the SREFs and this should start to come into view within the next day or so. The Ensemble Matched mean is a nice tool which provides a better estimate of variables like snow, total precipitation, etc. by retaining amplitude that's often lost in a more stereotypical ensemble forecast while maintaining relative stability and spread
https://ensemble.ucar.edu

You can view the NCAR Ensemble soundings here which will become useful for this storm in a day or two.
https://ensemble.ucar.edu/sounding.php
View attachment 1815
Click to expand...

Can we get a soundings for dummies explanation one more time, please? Seem to have misplaced my last one.
 
This Nam looks more juiced up at hr 21 compared to the 6z
 
deltadog03 said:
I noticed that. I know it mby but it almost appears the best overall chances are closer in GA.
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It's certainly rare for our neck of the woods to have the best chances of accumulating snow, so as Webber said we'll hold onto hope, but lean heavily on the side of non-verification. But, it sure is nice to see some of those darker blue shades across central Georgia! Hopefully, things will become a little more clear today. Always appreciate the analysis and play-by-play!
 
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