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dsaur
Member
I don't know, they keep upping my imaginary totals from run to run. What could possibly be amiss? Besides the fact it would be improbable even in Jan., for me to get 11 inches, Lol. T
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think if the low becomes super strong that might hurt our chances for getting snow in the height of the storm, but probably only solidifies our shot to get some snowfall on the backside of the low w/ stronger CAA...
drfranklin
Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2016
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- 487
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- 709
My brother lives in Columbus, GA - what should I tell him? LOL
South AL Wx
Member
As BMX put it this morning:
"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."
packfan98
Moderator
Webber, is there any update on that jet streak you mentioned the other day?
WeatherWatch
Member
I woudn't use 10:1 ratios, I'd use 5:1. What you see on the 10:1 ratio snowfall output maps will be cut in half. So, where you see that 10" in Georgia on the 12z NAM, that would be more like 4 1/2" to 5." Now, if the models start to show higher rates, of course the ratios would go up.
http://www.weather.gov/ffc/winter
I like the snowfall chances they have listed.Numbers keep growing.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page.
I like the snowfall chances they have listed.Numbers keep growing.
Scroll down to the bottom of the page.
Last edited:
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Remember when we called JB crazy for saying that euro was showing in the gulf? Lol
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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Ill be happy to take my 3-5" range lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks fine, a stronger cyclone will probably result in more CAA and intense backside snow on this storm which is virtually the only way you're getting snow in this.
Ron Burgundy
Member
I would call that the “don’t say we didn’t say it could happen” product!
packfan98
Moderator
Pivotal has a Kuchera ratio available. Looks like it stays between 6:1 to 8:1 on the NAM. However, one you get north of the Triad you get to 9:1 or 10:1. That, combined with colder surface and soil temps, is why they often get more snow accumulation with less moisture to work with. There's always a tradeoff.
RollTide18
Member
Even with the realistic NAM totals, it's enough to make the southern half of this board very happy, obviously the 10:1 totals are once in a lifetime totals for those areas lol
Storm5
Member
I'll take the 12z rgem . Has an expansive precip shield
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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please post lol
Storm5
Member
Parker this would work lol
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Storm5
Member
It only goes out to hour 48 . But it was headed for an amped system as well
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accu35
Member
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DangParker this would work lol
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No real big changes, still seeing large-scale Q vector convergence pointing towards warm air (which favors ascent) & the jet streak to the north over the NE US is still very strong which means since the Carolinas are in the right entrance region, it argues for cyclonic vorticity advection, upper level divergence and thus ascent. All of which favor more precipitation further NW.
tractor girl
Member
Light rain starting to fall in Decatur just outside of Atlanta.
Now that’s what I call a deform band LOL.
Stormlover
Member
expected snowfall 0 everywhere?
Scroll to the bottom of the page and you will see a table that details the percentages for different tiers of potential snowfall for various cities.
Parker this would work lol
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Wow, I would take that all day. It will be interesting to see these short range models now that we are getting close. I mean we are not asking for a huge shift. 50 miles or so and a more expanded precip shield may work out for us, but I am sometimes a major wishcaster.
Takes a train with a load of snow
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I would not feel too confident in any significant snowfall atm southeast of Statesville, Grensboro, & Roxboro in central NC...
How well does the RGEM typically do?
Storm5
Member
Lol aren't we all? Yeah we just need about a 50 mile shift. Hell if not , it's Friday and I'll be taking the familu SE of our area to find it
bnathanb1982
Member
I am a new member, but have been watching this forum for a while. My question is, I noticed in the 2010 storm we had here in Ga, there was a "finger" of precipitation that shot out in front of the low. Is that normal in Miller A's and can we expect it if anything in this set up?
GFS is running.
Storm5
Member
The rgem is my favorite short term model. However the 48 hour rgem is like the 65 hour NAM. Its really good inside 24 hours But the 12z rgem run was headed for glory
GFS is drier tommorow.
Never mind, it’s better.
Never mind, it’s better.
Storm5
Member
What you meant to say was " I would not feel too confident in any significant snowfall atm south of Boston "
You are going to annoy Brick to no end with posts like this!
But I agree with you. I would feel much better if we had a solid source of cold, dry air being advected in. This is more marginal than last January's event. If we get an amped up system at all, many of us are going to be watching a nice, soaking rain fall on our Christmas lights.
We may get a flurry or two. Can't stand when mets say that.
As a snow contractor still not excited yet as we have all been down this road before. However i have aways seen if you look at amount figure half of that at best and you won't be dissapointed. Several more chances before Christmas.