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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Alright, well what seems to be rather clear to me is there will be a lot of moisture around with the highest rainfall totals along the NC/SC coasts.

Now... one of the things we need to figure out is just how much temperatures are affected with all this moisture around. I can already say with confidence, projected highs will be off under a steady deck of precipitation (modeled too warmly) especially during the day with amy appreciable rates.

What is NOT clear...
The problem enlies yet again...a ton of energy and several subtle waves and as usual, which one develops is the problem the guidance wants to resolve. There is definitely 2 distinct, maybe 3 pieces of energy with a vigorous arctic s/w diving down on Friday/Saturday... and there is a potential that one of our s/w's maybe in limbo lack of data land.
 
Well, all I can say is, I'm not going with the GFS fully to the extent. I remember last winter season, the GFS was showing that "big" snow event, and the "event" basically turned out to be nothing. It seems like when the GFS doesn't project nothing, it's going to happen of what the other models are suggesting. When the GFS does show something, it seems like nothing happens, or it turns out to be basically nothing. Also, I recall most mets weren't going with the GFS last season with that system, but yet jumped on the band wagon and rode the GFS out at the last minute. Not going that route this season. This is why I go with a blend of models, of which ever are in agreement with each other the most.
 
Might be too warm this run; will have to look at better maps.
 
Yeah, this run isn't going to be as good. Waiting for a couple frames to post the map, but not as good as 12z.

Edit: I stand corrected for NC.
 
Bad maps, but euro seems to have the low pressure in the same place as the nam. Can’t see the moisture but its not OTS i don’t believe
 
Thru 84, rainfall is from Central SC southward. Temperatures on EURO 45 at KCHS. 43 KCAE. Moisture started expanding northward but all rain at this point.
 
New 00z Euro:
new.png


Old 12z Euro:
old.png
 
Keep in mind those maps, include sleet and it wont be 10:1 for many areas.
 
90 and 96 some mixing in GA and scattered mixing in SC.. better in NC, temperatures falling in Central and Upper SC. Coastal regions still slow to fall despite .25" rates per 6 hours.
 
Stormsfury said:
90 and 96 some mixing in GA and scattered mixing in SC.. better in NC, temperatures falling in Central and Upper SC. Coastal regions still slow to fall despite .25" rates per 6 hours.
Click to expand...
Still have a little time to work on the NW shield of precip
 
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