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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Ok... so I’ve been in the snow jackpot bullseye every model and run since yesterday... yet FFC and BMX continue to basically dismiss this event... with BMX going 1/2 inch accumulation. Good thing I’m not a forecaster... this is apparently an extremely difficult forecast...probably the 1/2 a degree makes all the difference forecast.
 
An important reminder from NWS BMX's discussion this morning:

"Have seen plenty of model snow accumulation maps floating around on
social media and elsewhere, but you can throw those algorithms and
10 to 1 ratios out the window in this situation given the warm
temperatures near the surface."

That said, they have added a low confidence for light accumulating snowfall in their HWO.
 
Latest 10% probability map from FFC, valid through 7:00am Saturday morning (remember that this is still an experimental product):
FFC120617.png
 
6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
snod.conus.png
 
bouncycorn said:
FFC forecast has trended away from model consensus. In fact, they've taken snow out of the grids for Atlanta completely. Giving a 20% chance of light rain
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They must have seen the 6z GFS? Not a good run for ATL
 
Someone had said the GDPS has a 6z and 18z run as well. Here is the 6Z precip maps, the off hour runs only to 84 hours.
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packfan98 said:
6z GEFS is by far the best run. Looks like more of a consensus with the best axis from about Burlington to Mebane and NE from there. Seems to match up with some of the other models.
snod.conus.png
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That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special

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metwannabe said:
That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special

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I'm having a hard time getting way into the nw trend idea. I think there will be an larger NW edge to the precip shield but unless this goes full cmc I can't see a huge NW jump in the rn sn line

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SD said:
I'm having a hard time getting way into the nw trend idea. I think there will be an larger NW edge to the precip shield but unless this goes full cmc I can't see a huge NW jump in the rn sn line

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Well I hope you're right I was kind of thinking the same thing until I saw the CMC last night and look like to me that you GEFS had shifted somewhat NW. Old habits die hard

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metwannabe said:
Well I hope you're right I was kind of thinking the same thing until I saw the CMC last night and look like to me that you GEFS had shifted somewhat NW. Old habits die hard

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Yeah I mean we always seem some leaking toward the NW but I can't find a big catalyst to drive it way north at the last second like the January failure. Maybe I'm wishcasting

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SD said:
Yeah I mean we always seem some leaking toward the NW but I can't find a big catalyst to drive it way north at the last second like the January failure. Maybe I'm wishcasting

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Nah I think you're absolutely right unless this thing goes Bonkers bombs away I don't see it going too far north either and even at that looking at the upper levels there's only so far Northwest it could go.

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metwannabe said:
That's not a bad mean at all, only problem for me personally is I think I'm losing this one to the NW trend. I've been in and around the jackpot since it started showing up on the models and the Euro currently still has me there but I guarantee you when it's all said and done this is an I-85 special

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We always seem to forget, myself included, that come game time climo wins 99% of the time.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro still looking like those classic Raleigh area jackpots.
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I was watching Matthew East's breakdown on YouTube this morning, the Euro solution he showed had RDU catching almost 5"!! I almost choked on my coffee.

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bouncycorn said:
Models all underpredicted moisture for this morning significantly. Compare radar to model precip and reflectivity.
Click to expand...

It always seems to when it comes to overrunning precip. HRRR has the precip moving into N.GA by 11am this morning and even it looks slightly underdone on the northern fringe of the precip that's out there in AL/MS right now. I honestly don't see how we make it into the upper 40s/near 50 today if we have precip moving in during the late morning/noon time today.
 
I think from now until Friday, every view of the radar is important, seems like more moisture than the models advertised, maybe I'm looking at it wrong.
 
Shane I can see where your coming from. Same for metwannabe. We are so used to the NW trend. In this case you have flatter faster GFS vs slower stronger nam and cmc
 
RollTide18 said:
I think from now until Friday, every view of the radar is important, seems like more moisture than the models advertised, maybe I'm looking at it wrong.
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I think BL temps are still the biggest problem! I mean, your not gonna have the rates to overcome it, being on W/NW fringe and light rain
 
deltadog03 said:
I also think, to Webb points, tomorrow rain should help us out a bit too.
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Will it matter if the temps are low-ish
But the humidity ( DPs) are close to temp with all the moisture around these next few days? Not much help with evaporational cooling!?
 
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Tarheel1 said:
I think BL temps are still the biggest problem! I mean, your not gonna have the rates to overcome it, being on W/NW fringe and light rain
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That's also true, have to also watch out for reflectivity on radar, can't necessarily have light rain in this situation.
 
Ummm sref have increased for a lot areas since the the last run... I know they are poor indicators.


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How close do we have to get , to get RAP'd?
 
RollTide18 said:
Spann map

snow_2017-1024x676.jpg
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This actually seems sensible, given all the maps, climo, et al. Goofy and climo say no, most everyone else says yes, so I'll go with yes, but within reason, lol. Oh, sure, I'd like to get 6 or 8 inches of snow, if it can't be sleet, but it's kind of pie in the sky, until I see it on my door step....or the next county over. T
 
I hope last night's system isn't a sign of what's to come as far as the amount of precip

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