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Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

Brent said:
the Mexican mountains ;)

this is just reminding me I need to get a passport lmao
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Someone over at americanwx is saying Monterrey might get snow, down in the valley... pretty interesting set up for Northern Mex.
 
a little snow Thursday E AL towards Atlanta then back to rain so far

Texas snow totals not surprisingly came down from last run
 
First wave is colder and more moisture. Second wave incoming.
 
Hr 60 here come the north movement. Snowing in south bama.
 
Look at the placement of the lakes low versus just 00z. I can't take this model seriously.
 
almost the entire Louisiana coast all the way to Destin has accumulation on the clown map lmao
 
namconus_asnow_us_24.png
 
Yeah, not going for this run too much, even well over into CAE gets a nice thump of snow.
 
Like seriously, this run was a joke. Look @ the coastal areas:

image.png
 
850s on coastal SC/NC don't even match the "snow" maps tbh.
 
these snow maps have gotten out of hand lol even the "positive snow change" which is much less bullish has accumulation on the coast..
 
Well anyways, here is your total precip map for the run, including rain. Not so sure about those janky temperatures. 33F , but a dew of 34-37 makes total sense and all here imby.

namconus_apcpn_seus_28.png
 
Brent said:
these snow maps have gotten out of hand lol even the "positive snow change" which is much less bullish has accumulation on the coast..
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I think my local office has gotten out of hand following the crazy NAM. Check this out from a little bit ago:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
327 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2017

Of biggest concern are model discrepancies Friday night. The GFS
has consistently been a fast outlier, moving all precipitation
east of the area by Saturday morning. However, the NAM, ECMWF,
and Canadian are much deeper and slower, with much higher
chances across the region. Should these models verify, given
that colder air will continue to filter in, dropping a deep
layer below freezing, there could be a slight chance of snow
across the northwestern portions of the forecast area. If snow
does occur it likely would not be significant because of
marginal temperatures and light amounts. Yet have chosen to
reintroduce to forecast given better evidence from NAM
precipitation type algorithms and WPC probabilistic snowfall
forecasts around 30 percent.
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If euro, cmc, nam is right, then places in the deep south will be happy
 
accu35 said:
If euro, cmc, nam is right, then places in the deep south will be happy
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I can't remember the last time I have read a local discussion saying the GFS is actually on it's own versus the NAM (1st of all things), Euro, and CMC. I'm used to them at least trying to say SREF and Euro.. but crazy NAM and CMC...?

Not even a mention of the GEFS/EPS! These boys know a lot more than many of us, so I guess they could be onto something.

12z - 00z later today/tonight will set us up with a logical picture me thinks.
 
For everyone on currently (not many), doing a server reboot. Won't take but a second, we may need it for tomorrow.
 
Shawn said:
I can't remember the last time I have read a local discussion saying the GFS is actually on it's own versus the NAM (1st of all things), Euro, and CMC. I'm used to them at least trying to say SREF and Euro.. but crazy NAM and CMC...?

Not even a mention of the GEFS/EPS! These boys know a lot more than many of us, so I guess they could be onto something.

12z - 00z later today/tonight will set us up with a logical picture me thinks.
Click to expand...
The only reason im buying this chance so far is because of the ENS and EPS. Yes the op looked good on the cmc euro and nam but the ens tell it all. Thats why i think your local office is right, saying that the gfs is an outliner
 
Server reboot done, you may need to refresh. I'm not sure how that works with live threads.

Also, live thread self-disables after 60 minutes of thread inactivity. So if it turns off, I'm sure one of the other admins will get it back on for 12z.
 
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