• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

SD said:
Have to think the cmc is over amplifying here or that was the start of the NW trend.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The shortwave has been amplifying even on the Euro in the short-medium term and the increased separation does have me worried a bit if this can generate a lot of diabatic heating it could become super amped, cut-off, and/or switch everything to rain SE of GSO and Roxboro. There's a lot of possible scenarios that need to be sorted out but the CMC isn't that unrealistic given that increasing amplification and NW trends in the low pressure track, precipitation shield, etc. that tend to occur here and the dynamical forcing at hand that's favorable for expansion of the precipitation shield perhaps even into the mid Atlantic
 
dsaur said:
I went from 6 inches to 0, then back to 7 inches in 3 runs this evening, lol. The only probable run is the 0 run 'cause that's what happened last year when I was in the bullseye :) T
Click to expand...
No joke
 
Webberweather53 said:
The shortwave has been amplifying even on the Euro in the short-medium term and the increased separation does have me worried a bit if this can generate a lot of diabatic heating it could become super amped, cut-off, and/or switch everything to rain SE of GSO and Roxboro. There's a lot of possible scenarios that need to be sorted out but the CMC isn't that unrealistic given that increasing amplification and NW trends in the low pressure track, precipitation shield, etc. that tend to occur here and the dynamical forcing at hand that's favorable for expansion of the precipitation shield perhaps even into the mid Atlantic
Click to expand...
Your right of cmc is close to right south of 20, and east and se of 85 is no bueno
 
WxJoe said:
Spann still stuck on "a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain" for central AL Friday.
Thx for all the great updates here :)
Click to expand...
Yea always best to stay conservative until your with 36-48 hour event here in the south. Lol. If you miss a snow forecast they tend to bring out the trolls. Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
The shortwave has been amplifying even on the Euro in the short-medium term and the increased separation does have me worried a bit if this can generate a lot of diabatic heating it could become super amped, cut-off, and/or switch everything to rain SE of GSO and Roxboro. There's a lot of possible scenarios that need to be sorted out but the CMC isn't that unrealistic given that increasing amplification and NW trends in the low pressure track, precipitation shield, etc. that tend to occur here and the dynamical forcing at hand that's favorable for expansion of the precipitation shield perhaps even into the mid Atlantic
Click to expand...
There is a part of me that wouldn't mind seeing it bomb cut off then roll by. At least we know we would see snow on Saturday after agonizing cold rain Friday

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
dsaur said:
Never pays to be in the bullseye more than a few hours out, lol. Something tells me you and I will do ok. Probably not 7 inches, but probably more than a few pellets. Just seems time for a contrarian storm :) Tony
Click to expand...
Would be nice for sure
 
deltadog03 said:
Your right of cmc is close to right south of 20, and east and se of 85 is no bueno
Click to expand...

Yeah the favored look w/ an amped up Miller A cyclone is to have a big snow gradient in the NC piedmont between Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro - Winston-Salem. Even though I know we completely ruled out sleet falling here, I've seen several big dog coastals in the historical record, like January 1940 (the strongest LP area south of Hatteras in January) put down some serious sleet in Raleigh only to have twice as much snow fall in Durham like 15-20 miles to the NW. January 2000 is an anomaly and an exception not the rule
 
SD said:
There is a part of me that wouldn't mind seeing it bomb cut off then roll by. At least we know we would see snow on Saturday after agonizing cold rain Friday

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Very true of course i guess it wouldnt have a substantial snowpack to our north however it will likely melt too early before it really matters in that December 15-20 period when something else may show up...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Very true of course i guess it wouldnt have a substantial snowpack to our north however it will likely melt too early before it really matters in that December 15-20 period when something else may show up...
Click to expand...
What does Wake county need here to get a cmc solution but SE. That gradient reminds me way too much of January 2017
 
I don't have UKMET maps so early, but I'm hearing it may be more amped to give some sort of credit to the CMC. Not as much, though.

JMA right all along?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
What does Wake county need here to get a cmc solution but SE. That gradient reminds me way too much of January 2017
Click to expand...

We're going to less amplified shortwave, with less separation, a deeper arctic airmass (which could be aided by those systems running out in front of this on Thu) to push the sub zero (centigrade) 850s further SE, and a slightly weaker coastal but we might be trending in the wrong direction for that
 
Shawn said:
I don't have UKMET maps so early, but I'm hearing it may be more amped to give some sort of credit to the CMC. Not as much, though.

JMA right all along?
Click to expand...
Here is mslp with 500mb heights at 72 hours. The precip panels and 500mb vort will come out shortly on meteocentre website.
3ba64f3ad12b8c48d81242381eceb652.gif


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
Jeeze, this is going boom real fast, no other panels available though:

jeeze.gif
 
tractor girl said:
Decatur here.
Click to expand...

I’m about a mile away from Agnes Scott, but my property is technically in the city of Atlanta.
So i’m guessing you & I aren’t too far away then.

It’s always peculiar when I key in different zip codes for weather.com& weather.gov. Oftentimes I put in a Decatur zip, I get a different forecast from when I put in my actual city of Atlanta zip. It’s really weird & no doubt will be here as we see FFC update their grids over the coming days... certainly a lot of model data to chew on
 
I feel like we're going to have to nowcast this event as time goes on instead of relying on the models, I feel like the set up is too complex for a lot of the guidance to be grasped.
 
I'm a few miles east nearer to 285. I don't know what to make of the models this go. All I do know is that we are going to get cold rain. If something else materializes wonderful!
 
RollTide18 said:
@Webberweather53 would you consider the GFS an outlier or not?
Click to expand...

Yeah the GFS is even a southeastern outlier in its own ensemble suite (which is historically progressive, underdispersive and too far to the SE) and is southeast and suppressed (as usual) vs other guidance, and I would disregard it for now
 
The GFS ensemble had a couple decent hits here in NC but most were either mountain/extreme NW piedmont hits and/or next to nothing southeast of Greensboro and Roxboro. Hopefully the Euro ensemble holds serve for RDU's sake
gefs_snow_ens_se_27.png
 
UKMET is a cold rain southeast of north Charlotte-Greensboro-Roxboro in NC, looks like some backside snow (albeit barely) for Atlanta and solidly so for central Alabama including Birmingham and even Montgomery
TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top