Brent
Member
Haha the nam such fake news
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Very good point
WeatherWatch
Member
If the 0z GFS tonight projects of what the NAM, CMC, Euro, EPS is suggesting. I'll be ramping up my accumulation snowfall up to 50% across of where the likely area's that will see accumulation in GA. If the trend continues 2 days prior of the time period, I'll ramp it up to 80%.
Stormlover
Member
we'll be fine here in the northernmost counties of Ala from it....I expect the higher elevations to get some accumulation, probably a dusting in lower elevations
But that was a gooooooooooooood run!
It would be a mixed, gross bag, before a switch over to a lighter event as the low pressure pulls away. The majority of the heavy snowfall that accumulates per the 00z NAM would be to our North and West. While the maps show accumulation of a 10:1 ratio through hour 84 here, it's sleet.
Let me show you an example from a map that takes 850 mb temps mostly being above freezing into account:
As you can see, barring a little bit more after hour 84, you can see the majority of the snowfall is well away from CAE on this run due to temperature issues.
Stormlover
Member
man, you are debbie downer so far with anything that comes along
whatalife
Moderator
People better tamper their excitement for at last another day. This could go south on us in a not so positive way...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NorthGaWinter4
Member
We know. We’ve all been there
whatalife
Moderator
RollTide18
Member
That is true but man, it's hard not to get excited.
That’s painful how close that is... which is normally how it always is around here. Hopefully some more favorable things happen in our favor. That’s ridiculously close to heavy wet snow.It would be a mixed, gross bag, before a switch over to a lighter event as the low pressure pulls away. The majority of the heavy snowfall that accumulates per the 00z NAM would be to our North and West. While the maps show accumulation of a 10:1 ratio through hour 84 here, it's sleet.
Let me show you an example from a map that takes 850 mb temps mostly being above freezing into account:
As you can see, barring a little bit more after hour 84, you can see the majority of the snowfall is well away from CAE on this run due to temperature issues.
Have you been here the last 3 winters!!?
whatalife
Moderator
Here is the raw output from the 00z NAM for Columbia, SC. All rain through hour 84:
Code:
Station ID: KCAE Lat: 33.94 Long: -81.11
NAM Model Run: 0Z 5DEC 2017 Cloud base and tops are now agl
HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis
Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM
0 12/05 00Z 55 46 85 1 0.00 0.00 558 580 7.2 -14.1 1025 0 CLR 0.0 15.0
3 12/05 03Z 55 46 72 3 0.00 0.00 559 580 8.1 -13.6 1025 71 059BKN071 0.0 15.0
6 12/05 06Z 52 46 65 3 0.00 0.00 559 579 8.4 -13.5 1024 44 042SCT065 0.0 15.0
9 12/05 09Z 51 46 52 2 0.00 0.00 560 579 8.6 -13.3 1023 64 027BKN334 0.0 15.0
12 12/05 12Z 53 47 132 1 0.00 0.00 559 579 8.8 -12.7 1024 80 009BKN068 0.0 15.0
15 12/05 15Z 55 51 186 4 0.00 0.00 560 580 9.4 -12.5 1023 100 007OVC024 0.0 15.0
18 12/05 18Z 63 57 224 7 0.00 0.00 561 579 9.7 -10.7 1021 100 011OVC069 0.0 15.0
21 12/05 21Z 64 59 193 6 0.00 0.00 561 578 10.6 -10.2 1019 100 014OVC139 0.0 15.0
24 12/06 00Z 63 60 153 4 0.00 0.00 561 577 10.9 -11.5 1018 98 027BKN305 0.0 15.0
27 12/06 03Z 64 61 187 9 0.00 0.00 561 577 10.8 -11.4 1018 100 029OVC358 0.0 15.0
30 12/06 06Z 63 62 212 8 0.00 0.00 561 576 10.8 -13.1 1017 100 032OVC320 0.0 14.9
33 12/06 09Z 62 59 287 6 0.01 0.00 559 574 10.2 -13.2 1018 98 020BKN196 0.0 15.0
36 12/06 12Z 58 58 287 3 0.14 0.00 558 574 9.8 -13.2 1019 99 RA 087OVC221 0.0 5.6
39 12/06 15Z 56 50 354 7 0.03 0.00 557 574 9.6 -13.3 1020 100 015OVC166 0.0 15.0
42 12/06 18Z 56 46 19 7 0.00 0.00 556 572 9.0 -13.4 1019 100 022OVC273 0.0 15.0
45 12/06 21Z 53 44 352 6 0.01 0.00 556 571 6.5 -14.0 1019 100 028OVC180 0.0 12.9
48 12/07 00Z 52 38 27 5 0.00 0.00 555 572 2.9 -13.4 1020 100 057OVC112 0.0 15.0
51 12/07 03Z 50 35 6 6 0.00 0.00 556 572 3.7 -13.7 1020 100 052OVC217 0.0 14.5
54 12/07 06Z 44 40 6 3 0.20 0.00 554 571 2.6 -12.9 1020 100 -RA 053OVC375 0.0 12.8
57 12/07 09Z 43 40 342 6 0.04 0.00 554 570 1.2 -11.4 1019 100 009OVC237 0.0 14.7
60 12/07 12Z 40 39 344 7 0.11 0.00 553 570 0.5 -11.4 1020 100 RA 022OVC361 0.0 3.4
63 12/07 15Z 39 36 353 7 0.13 0.00 553 570 -0.4 -11.2 1021 100 -RA 008OVC370 0.0 12.0
66 12/07 18Z 36 34 353 6 0.10 0.00 552 568 -0.4 -12.3 1020 100 -RA 005OVC335 0.0 7.8
69 12/07 21Z 36 34 14 6 0.13 0.00 552 566 0.4 -12.3 1018 100 -RA 007OVC197 0.0 14.5
72 12/08 00Z 36 34 7 6 0.07 0.00 552 567 1.6 -12.8 1018 100 006OVC194 0.0 14.5
75 12/08 03Z 35 34 357 5 0.06 0.00 551 567 1.8 -13.6 1019 100 -RA 006OVC329 0.0 10.5
78 12/08 06Z 35 33 344 5 0.06 0.00 551 565 1.7 -13.1 1017 100 -RA 006OVC309 0.0 13.8
81 12/08 09Z 35 33 350 6 0.03 0.00 549 563 0.2 -13.1 1017 100 -RA 005OVC175 0.0 15.2
84 12/08 12Z 35 33 328 6 0.05 0.00 548 563 -2.1 -13.8 1019 100 -RA 006OVC272 0.0 14.8
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Bruh. That's such bad luck and borderline trollish. Especially 66-84.
Cold rain that is so close to snow and yet, so far away.
Some people have not seen snow in almost 4 years. Let us enjoy this brief moment of excitement.
Nothing new here. Ive lived here all my life, 26 now and have been on the border of many storms. But no storm has broke my heart more than the late february 2004 storm. Hopefully somehting works out with this storm and we can atleast see some flakes fly.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
00z GFS has a trend similar to the 00z NAM as of 15 hours.. Slower with more amplification in the SW Conus