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Pattern Winter outlook 2022/2023

Hard to believe we go all winter without at least 1 favorable period of a few weeks of some good chances for winter precip. And honestly we usually have a period in any winter but if the last two years are any indication of what’s to come.. I would be at least a little excited for that possibility. But also don’t forget .. more than likely we will torch at some point as well.. but hey that’s the name of the game in the south. If we could get that NAO block earlier than we did last year that could bode well for more impactful winter weather. View attachment 120675
We will absolutely have a few favorable periods for wintery weather in the SE. My guess is that we'll end the winter AN, as usual, but we'll have 2-3 10 day to 2 week periods of BN with some snow and ice chances. It's not going to torch and drought all through the winter.
 
Hard to believe we go all winter without at least 1 favorable period of a few weeks of some good chances for winter precip. And honestly we usually have a period in any winter but if the last two years are any indication of what’s to come.. I would be at least a little excited for that possibility. But also don’t forget .. more than likely we will torch at some point as well.. but hey that’s the name of the game in the south. If we could get that NAO block earlier than we did last year that could bode well for more impactful winter weather. View attachment 120675
Meteo-France looks most ideal. Most seasonal models have a bias of overdoing it with the heat. These maps look to clarify a general look.
 
Farmers Almanac out. Not bad really...if to be believed.

Farmers-Almanac-Winter-Weather-Forecast-2023-675.jpg
The Farmer's Almanac has gone gung ho with winter temperatures in their forecast for the Southeast this year. Both January and February are going to be five degrees or more below normal! I'm skeptical about their forecast to say the least but stranger things have happened I guess. The Summer of 2023 is supposed to pretty much be a carbon copy of this summer for the most part.
 
I did not at all take it that way! aka- preliminary thoughts..........
I’ve just been so use to him having the east coast at least 1-2 degrees below normal on all of his winter outlook maps. I really try not to bash the guy because I know he’s got a tough job, but it seems like he’s really struggled on his winter seasonal forecast the last decade. The last time I remember him being pretty dead on was the back to back years of 09-10 and 10-11.
 
Wait!!! He’s not calling for the east coast to be below normal? Blockbuster winter incoming!!!
I can 110% guarantee, he will have a forecast come out showing mid Atlantic and NE, with below normal temps and above normal snow, at some point, before November, or in his “final” outlook! He can’t not do it! Watch
 
You know what's overdue in the SE US? A cold DEC, with some true Arctic Air dropping down. Hasn't really happened since 1989... We've had smaller outbreaks in 2010, and maybe some other years. But the last time CHA had a single digit low in December was in 1989. I have no idea about what ENSO pattern would be involved, but I think a cold Dec is worth a gamble. Yeah I know, that's called the Gambler's Fallacy, but surely one has to happen eventually. ;)
 
Going with N Dec/BN jan/AN Feb and March. Call me crazy but I think we break the warm December curse. Im
noticing a tendency already this summer we are continuing on what we did this past winter/spring and continue to get jet extensions and keep on dropping pacific lows in a similar style. It might not mean much, but the fact we are seeing the same thing still happen in a similar background state as last winter, is better then anything. But it’s worth noting a pattern now barely has any correlation to a winter pattern
 
I want to see how the high latitudes evolve this year. I believe there is a chance we could go big cold early with snow chances even as early as November. 11-12 lurks as a legit analog so dumpster fire is on the table.

Cmon' man the heats been killing my fruit production and I was holding out hope I could have a late season crop. It would make perfect sense for that to happen, though ?
 
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Cmon' man the heats been killing my fruit production and I was holding out hope I could have a late season crop. It would make perfect sense for that to happen, though ?
No fruit this year . Big famine coming. Cricks will be a’freezin , crops are a’dyin, and people are a’starving.
 
Ill take a repeat of January 21 for every January going forward.
 
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