We will absolutely have a few favorable periods for wintery weather in the SE. My guess is that we'll end the winter AN, as usual, but we'll have 2-3 10 day to 2 week periods of BN with some snow and ice chances. It's not going to torch and drought all through the winter.
Meteo-France looks most ideal. Most seasonal models have a bias of overdoing it with the heat. These maps look to clarify a general look.
I chased last year to middle Tennessee. It worked out for me. I will definitely do so again if I have the opportunity.
I always chase to the mtns during weekend events
Yeah it’s beautiful up there. Especially during winter time.
The Farmer's Almanac has gone gung ho with winter temperatures in their forecast for the Southeast this year. Both January and February are going to be five degrees or more below normal! I'm skeptical about their forecast to say the least but stranger things have happened I guess. The Summer of 2023 is supposed to pretty much be a carbon copy of this summer for the most part.Farmers Almanac out. Not bad really...if to be believed.
Me too!
It’s long walk to your back deckMe too!
Wait!!! He’s not calling for the east coast to be below normal? Blockbuster winter incoming!!!Kicks and giggles!
From Joey mac Bravo!!
August 10, 2022
- This is the first forecast idea for the upcoming 5-month HDD season.
- The closest analog is 2010-11.
I did not at all take it that way! aka- preliminary thoughts..........
This is only a test!Kicks and giggles!
From Joey mac Bravo!!
August 10, 2022
- This is the first forecast idea for the upcoming 5-month HDD season.
- The closest analog is 2010-11.
I’ve just been so use to him having the east coast at least 1-2 degrees below normal on all of his winter outlook maps. I really try not to bash the guy because I know he’s got a tough job, but it seems like he’s really struggled on his winter seasonal forecast the last decade. The last time I remember him being pretty dead on was the back to back years of 09-10 and 10-11.
I can 110% guarantee, he will have a forecast come out showing mid Atlantic and NE, with below normal temps and above normal snow, at some point, before November, or in his “final” outlook! He can’t not do it! Watch
No fruit this year . Big famine coming. Cricks will be a’freezin , crops are a’dyin, and people are a’starving.
If jet extensions continue into winter, we possibly could have some opportunities of cold and winter weather. I still feel that the east based niña helped out also
Well, we certainly can't yammer about sun angle on the front end
| Total storms | 11 |
| Hurricanes | 7 |
| Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+) | 2 |
| Total storms | 12 |
| Hurricanes | 5 |
| Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+) | 2 |
| Total storms | 13, 1 unofficial |
| Hurricanes | 9 |
| Major hurricanes ( Cat. 3+) | 6 |
How'd ot look in 1999 when we had the January 2000 storm?
Really that is what the thinking has been for the last couple of winters because of how Niñas typically work out with cold Decembers, and first 3 weeks of January before the pattern breaks down and February goes full torch. With us having a 3rd straight Niña, I keep thinking that one these should follow that classic look. Interestingly, the last 3rd year Niña I can remember in 2000-01 saw a cold December, and first half of January before going above normal, but then went back below normal the last week of February as the Niña had started breaking down… November was below normal that season as well with much of the Carolinas outside the mountains getting a rare November snowfall with widespread 1-4” a few days before Thanksgiving.
2013 (currently the benchmark for slowest year) jumps out with 14 Named, 2 Hurricane and no majors leading into the Snowjam and Valentine's week Snow/Ice Storm of '14.
