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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Stevo24 said:
My question is in todays climate how much should we look at stats from the past. I feel like things are changing (for the worst) so fast that what happened years ago don’t even matter as much anymore. What do you think?
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I've seen it snow in February, March, & April many times in the last decade or two, & the bulk of those big cases post-January occur in Nino winters. This year is basically following the composite historical Nino evolution to a T, the warm December is right on par w/ what I expected to see.

It usually doesn't snow by this point in the winter in most years like this. The facts simply don't back up what you're getting at.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've seen it snow in February, March, & April many times in the last decade or two, & the bulk of those big cases post-January occur in Nino winters. This year is basically following the composite historical Nino evolution to a T, the warm December is right on par w/ what I expected to see.

It usually doesn't snow by this point in the winter in most years like this. The facts simply don't back up what you're getting at.
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So let’s say that we get to April and there has been no significant snow storms for majority of us. Would you call that out of the norm for an El Niño winter? Or would you just call that living in the southeast. I don’t know all of the stats but I’m sure you know. Have we had more El Niño’s produce significant snowfall than not for the southeast in the last say 30 years? Just trying to pick your brain.
 
Stevo24 said:
So let’s say that we get to April and there has been no significant snow storms for majority of us. Would you call that out of the norm for an El Niño winter? Or would you just call that living in the southeast. I don’t know all of the stats but I’m sure you know. Have we had more El Niño’s produce significant snowfall than not for the southeast in the last say 30 years? Just trying to pick your brain.
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The most recent 40 years of moderate-strong El Niño winters have generally panned out like this:

You see a theme here?

2015-16: Unusually warm December, winter turned it on mid-late January & into Feb.

2009-10: blockbuster winter, especially late January & Feb

2002-03: historic ice storm in December, then barrage of winter storms beginning mid-late Jan & into Feb

1997-98: Significant western Piedmont winter storm in late Dec, moderate-sized event in mid-Jan.

1994-95: Notable ice storm mid Feb

1987-88: Big winter storm in early Jan.

1986-87: A whole lotta nothing until about mid-late January & February

1982-83: Not much in the way of winter until late January & February. Big winter storm in late March too.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The most recent 40 years of moderate-strong El Niño winters have generally panned out like this:

You see a theme here?

2015-16: Unusually warm December, winter turned it on mid-late January & into Feb.

2009-10: blockbuster winter, especially late January & Feb

2002-03: historic ice storm in December, then barrage of winter storms beginning mid-late Jan & into Feb

1997-98: Significant western Piedmont winter storm in late Dec, moderate-sized event in mid-Jan.

1994-95: Notable ice storm mid Feb

1987-88: Big winter storm in early Jan.

1986-87: A whole lotta nothing until about mid-late January & February

1982-83: Not much in the way of winter until late January & February. Big winter storm in late March too.
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I think there's still some residual water vapor from the Honga Tonga eruption in the stratosphere which is a greenhouse gas.

mls_h2o_qbo_lat_45S-45N_26hPa.png
Also, oceans are quite warm now.
F-USiaXXgAA5eMB
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm unsure why we end up punting January and Decembers most years now regardless of ENSO status.
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I definitely think you are onto something. I don’t think that today’s climate state neatly fits the molds of 10 or 15 years ago. Our climate is largely dominated by the Pacific jet. The influence of MJO needs to be rethought. The PV seems to prefer dumping into Northern Europe and Siberia. We’ve got to just come to grips with this at some point. It doesn’t mean it will never get cold, and it will never snow, It’s just going to be different.


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severestorm said:
I think there's still some residual water vapor from the Honga Tonga eruption in the stratosphere which is a greenhouse gas.

mls_h2o_qbo_lat_45S-45N_26hPa.png
Also, oceans are quite warm now.
F-USiaXXgAA5eMB
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The evolution of this winter thus far is not fundamentally different at all from what's expected in El Niños, despite the warming background climate.

In fact, it's insane how closely this year has been following the composite evolution thus far (which I posted in here and on social media in early-mid Nov):

Relative cold snap in late Nov - early Dec ✅

Relative warm-up in mid-late December, warmest part of the winter (vs normal) likely near Christmas ✅

Relative cool-down (again) in early January ✅

Not much in the way of snow through early-mid January ✅

Not sure how much more El Niño you can get than what we've seen this year.

Keep in mind: the initial question here is actually talking about whether the evolution of the winter has fundamentally changed in recent decades s.t. late Jan - Feb is becoming less favored during El Niño years.

The answer to that is absolutely no. In fact, it's actually going the other way in recent times, with even more emphasis being placed on late winter, esp in El Niños.

Sure, we've had a lot of warm Februarys lately, but most of this came during non-Nino winters and we've had even more warm Decembers during the same period.

In fact, the last below normal December in the SE US as a whole was back in 2010. Every one since then has been above or well above average temperature wise.

I would actually argue there's a more concerning long-term trend here for La Niña winters (which tend to "front load" much of their cold/snow)


F-tBOwLWIAAsww3.jpeg


F-_Osyza4AAY5Kq.jpeg

cdas-all-east-t2m_f_anom_10day_back-1701518400-1703678400-10-1.gif



ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-t2m_f_anom_7day-4780000.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The evolution of this winter thus far is not fundamentally different at all from what's expected in El Niños, despite the warming background climate.

In fact, it's insane how closely this year has been following the composite evolution thus far (which I posted in here and on social media in early-mid Nov):

Relative cold snap in late Nov - early Dec ✅

Relative warm-up in mid-late December, warmest part of the winter (vs normal) likely near Christmas ✅

Relative cool-down (again) in early January ✅

Not much in the way of snow through early-mid January ✅

Not sure how much more El Niño you can get than what we've seen this year.

Keep in mind: the initial question here is actually talking about whether the evolution of the winter has fundamentally changed in recent decades s.t. late Jan - Feb is becoming less favored during El Niño years.

The answer to that is absolutely no. In fact, it's actually going the other way in recent times, with even more emphasis being placed on late winter, esp in El Niños.

Sure, we've had a lot of warm Februarys lately, but most of this came during non-Nino winters and we've had even more warm Decembers during the same period.

In fact, the last below normal December in the SE US as a whole was back in 2010. Every one since then has been above or well above average temperature wise.

I would actually argue there's a more concerning long-term trend here for La Niña winters (which tend to "front load" much of their cold/snow)


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My point was this being a exceptional year because of Honga Tonga, and there's really no matching analog to this.
 
severestorm said:
You are 100% certain your prediction of a above average snowfall and snowy January/February. Lets see how that pans out....
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In his defense I don’t think he ever made a prediction for above average snowfall at all. Not that I remember. Could be wrong. He did say he was leaning on the best chances in late January early February.
 
severestorm said:
You are 100% certain your prediction of a above average snowfall and snowy January/February. Lets see how that pans out....
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No. However, I'm laying out a ton of reasons why this winter isn't deviating at all from the historical paradigm, despite the recent obvious climate changes.
 
severestorm said:
You are 100% certain your prediction of a above average snowfall and snowy January/February. Lets see how that pans out....
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Where did he predict an above Average Snowfall? I just remember him saying Chances would be much better end of Jan early Feb of seeing Snow

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Twister said:
Where did he predict an above Average Snowfall? I just remember him saying Chances would be much better end of Jan early Feb of seeing Snow

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Climatology usually favors end of Jan into February for best chances of winter storms most but not all winters
 
Itryatgolf said:
Climatology usually favors end of Jan into February for best chances of winter storms most but not all winters
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That wasn't my point, My point was Webber never "Predicted" an above average Snowfall or not that I recall anyway

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