Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Like I’ve said before, we haven’t had an El Niño like this in about 10 years. I wouldn’t factor recent history much into this at all.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Like I’ve said before, we haven’t had an El Niño like this in about 10 years. I wouldn’t factor recent history much into this at all.
SnowNiner
Member
I hear you, and hope you're right Webb. I'm just not sure everything works the way it's supposed to anymore. Don't worry, you're on record, we get a cold and stormy February, you notch a win
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here is the "raleigh area" seasonal snowfall data since 1887, I think there are some issues in the 1890s where the years were 0
griteater
Member
Dec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...
And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook
Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east
In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.
And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook
Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east
In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.
Itryatgolf
Member
Kicking can still continues unfortunately ? I'm curious when will most know if the SSW will happen or at least a split for sure or not. I'm still hoping it doesDec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...
And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook
Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east
In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.
It can happen anytime. We just need before end of Jan or so to help our area. Beyond that propagation to make a difference gets really pushed out of prime time.
Itryatgolf
Member
If it happens late, it will do most of us outside higher elevations no good. We do have a -qbo and typically it promotes a SSW from what I've learned
Dang I can’t even lie, that sucks.Dec 27 - my thoughts on the pattern ahead (Day 10-30 forecast)...
And here is my experimental Pac Jet Index where I use: 1) Model Ensemble Output, 2) AAM/GWO/GSDM, 3) Tropical Forcing/MJO, and 4) Forecaster Input to attempt to forecast the eastern extent of the Pac Jet (90 knots at 200mb / 5-day average), to aid in the 10-30 day outlook
Pac Jet eastern extent in: 1) Purple box = retracted jet / -PNA pattern 2) Blue box = +EPO if jet is reaching poleward; -EPO and/or +PNA if jet is extending west to east 3) Red box = +EPO if jet is ext & reaching poleward; Strong zonal flow if jet is extending west to east
In addition, one has to factor in whether the jet is in the process of extending or retracting into these boxes when determining the resultant pattern.
jeremyt
Member
Past few years Nina, Nada I would agree but, we seem to do well late Jan , early Feb in Nino years.
iGRXY
Member
I’m still in the camp that I expect we get some looks by mid January. Specifically east of the mountains. Trough dumping west and
-NAO means Miller B/CAD potential. It won’t be the board wide stuff but those in the CAD regions I think have a solid chance at a storm even before February
-NAO means Miller B/CAD potential. It won’t be the board wide stuff but those in the CAD regions I think have a solid chance at a storm even before February
When do we see the board wife stuff. Never?
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s very likely going to happen but based on recent history the cold probably dumps out west or into Europe.
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Itryatgolf
Member
I'm still unsure why usually niños are backloaded and niñas are frontloaded
I'm unsure why we end up punting January and Decembers most years now regardless of ENSO status.
Itryatgolf
Member
Probably climate change I believe
People going to get locked out of storm threads for canceling winters/ months before they happen
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just to clear the air here on some of the previous misleading commentary on here that talked about winter basically being "over" if we have to wait til the end of January or early February for a winter storm this year.
When you actually look at the data, you actually find that for "major" winter storms (4"+ snows or 0.25"+ of ice) in central NC during moderate-strong El Niño winters, 50% of them actually occur after February 5th. I.e. winter is only half over by Feb 5th in El Niños.
Only 10% of "major" winter storms occur before January 1st, and a third of them even by the middle of January during Nino winters.
We're still about 5 weeks away even from the half way point of the winter this year.
We've got a very long ways to go folks. Even if the next few-several weeks produce little to nothing, winter is very far from over.
When you actually look at the data, you actually find that for "major" winter storms (4"+ snows or 0.25"+ of ice) in central NC during moderate-strong El Niño winters, 50% of them actually occur after February 5th. I.e. winter is only half over by Feb 5th in El Niños.
Only 10% of "major" winter storms occur before January 1st, and a third of them even by the middle of January during Nino winters.
We're still about 5 weeks away even from the half way point of the winter this year.
We've got a very long ways to go folks. Even if the next few-several weeks produce little to nothing, winter is very far from over.
My question is in todays climate how much should we look at stats from the past. I feel like things are changing (for the worst) so fast that what happened years ago don’t even matter as much anymore. What do you think?