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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Webberweather53 said:
Here's the same CDF graph I made yesterday, but now for our neighbors to the north in the mid-Atlantic states.

The backloaded trend is even more prominent there.

A whopping 75% of major snowstorms from south-central VA to NYC occur after January 20th during moderate-strong Nino winters.

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That is a crazy dead period from Dec 20 to around Jan 2nd.
 
Thought this was interesting from a historical perspective:

"The single largest snowfall in South Carolina history, when measured over a one-day period, occurred on February 15, 1902, in Greenville County, and on February 10, 1973, in both Dorchester and Aiken Counties, with each event recording 15 inches of snow【6†source】. For a longer duration, the biggest snowfall on record in South Carolina was in Greenville County, with a three-day total of 2 feet, 4.9 inches on February 18, 1969【7†source】. Additionally, during the great Blizzard of 1973, which started on February 9th and lasted three full days, the midlands of South Carolina were hardest hit, receiving an overwhelming 24 inches of snow【8†source】."

I guess I'm implying that the largest snowfall from a one-day period and overall largest snowfall in South Carolina were both in February.
 
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Somebody in the deep south will see flakes by the end of January. Such a shame there's a few small lows trying to pop next week. Really could have been 2010 again if the cold was there. Oh well keep the faith guys.
 
SNOWMANN said:
Somebody in the deep south will see flakes by the end of January. Such a shame there's a few small lows trying to pop next week. Really could have been 2010 again if the cold was there. Oh well keep the faith guys.
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Its like 3 taking perfect tracks next 10 days, energy so strung out, but the surface cold is meh, despite good 850s. Be watching Jan 12th time frame, see if this has legs. What we need to flush out all this pac jet soupy airmass off NA. This would not only do that, but cover canada,lakes,midwest with a snowpack. Fits the bill of webbs timetable, kinda kick start the progression.

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NCSNOW said:
Its like 3 taking perfect tracks next 10 days, energy so strung out, but the surface cold is meh, despite good 850s. Be watching Jan 12th time frame, see if this has legs. What we need to flush out all this pac jet soupy airmass off NA. This would not only do that, but cover canada,lakes,midwest with a snowpack. Fits the bill of webbs timetable, kinda kick start the progression.

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Agree 100% man. I've been watching the period around the 12th. Ole goofy has been decent this year at sniffing out big lows in the LR.
 
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That’s quite the change in the northern stream energy on the GFS for the Jan 7th threat. Goes from nothing to a New England snowstorm. With that type of trend it makes me wonder if we can get a piece of this system as well
 
The ole Lucy pulls the football trick. Reversal getting less likely in the short term in each of the past three runs.
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SnowNiner said:
Absolute unicorn anyway IMO. Just keep the vortex weak and disturbed and that'll be fine for us.
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I agree completely and with the AO about to go into to the tank it should stay quite weak. I’ve gotten to look at SSWE’s as a great bonus and a way to shake up things against climo… like what happened in the late January 2009 event, but when the climo of a Nino says that our best chances of winter weather occurs after 1/20, I don’t think it would make much of a difference.
 
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