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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

griteater said:
Here's tonight's GEFS Ext from Christmas Eve to Jan 6

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Bookmarked this post from Dec 6. Pretty awesome to see it do well for the Early Jan timeframe
 
Webberweather53 said:
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.

Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.

This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)


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My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
 
Webberweather53 said:
My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
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Timing better than last year I suppose as this was projected to be a late Feb/early March back in '22. Can't recall if it ever really happened. Think I exited stage left by that late in the season. Hard closing window by that time
 
Webberweather53 said:
My thoughts on the extended haven’t changed much overall since this post a few weeks ago.

Cooler pattern in early January, but not cold enough to truly snow. Then, the trough goes out west around mid-January & builds the snow pack up over the CONUS and southern Canada to a point where it can help sustain a good pattern later on down the road. Trough probably shifts back east late month into early February and that’s when our best opportunities for wintry weather will probably exist
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I’d be willing to bet if we’re waiting till February we’re gonna bat 0 for the winter and might as well move on to spring. Just my opinion hopefully I’m wrong.
 
Stevo24 said:
I’d be willing to bet if we’re waiting till February we’re gonna bat 0 for the winter and might as well move on to spring. Just my opinion hopefully I’m wrong.
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Majority of the time, we have to wait until nearly February in Nino winters for a big dog to appear
 
Stevo24 said:
I’d be willing to bet if we’re waiting till February we’re gonna bat 0 for the winter and might as well move on to spring. Just my opinion hopefully I’m wrong.
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I'd have to agree. I find it very hard to believe the month of February, in any enso regime is going to be cold considering the last 10 years.
 
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