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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

packfan98 said:
Maybe there’s a chance the MJO does a loop in the COD and avoids the bad phases?
ECMF(79).png
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Unfortunately no, it looks like it on the RMM charts but trop forcing will eventually settle around the Indian Ocean for a minute after the current MJO pulse leaves, which will set the pacific jet retraction in motion, can see it easily on VP charts Vs the RMM. Looks like we’ll have favorable MJO propagation again sometime around the 2nd-3rd week of January, and we might start seeing downwelling effects of the possible SSW coming up. It’s worth noting that while we may get into a -PNA pattern due tropical forcing, it’s also is what is likely gonna start a legitimate period of -NAO.
Basically my thinking.
week 1-1.5 of jan = favorable pattern, questionable cold, but we could make something happen, need certain things in the overall longwave pattern to go right (deep northern stream trough over the NE US/SE Canada, trailing wave(s) associated with wavebreaking from the GOAK longwave trough)
- Week 1.5-3 of jan might get mild/lackluster because the MJO will finally encourage -PNA/western troughing, which should kickstart a favorable Atlantic pattern
-week 3 of jan we make a favorable flip and probably see the most favorable pattern since January 2022FC3FF287-6B7F-4489-B0A6-9C1B2AA943B3.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Unfortunately no, it looks like it on the RMM charts but trop forcing will eventually settle around the Indian Ocean for a minute after the current MJO pulse leaves, which will set the pacific jet retraction in motion, can see it easily on VP charts Vs the RMM. Looks like we’ll have favorable MJO propagation again sometime around the 2nd-3rd week of January, and we might start seeing downwelling effects of the possible SSW coming up. It’s worth noting that while we may get into a -PNA pattern due tropical forcing, it’s also is what is likely gonna start a legitimate period of -NAO.
Basically my thinking.
week 1-1.5 of jan = favorable pattern, questionable cold, but we could make something happen, need certain things in the overall longwave pattern to go right (deep northern stream trough over the NE US/SE Canada, trailing wave(s) associated with wavebreaking from the GOAK longwave trough)
- Week 1.5-3 of jan might get mild/lackluster because the MJO will finally encourage -PNA/western troughing, which should kickstart a favorable Atlantic pattern
-week 3 of jan we make a favorable flip and probably see the most favorable pattern since January 2022View attachment 138883
Click to expand...
Great analysis! I hope that it pans out. I’m afraid many of us are going to get a little squirrelly if we have to wait until the 2nd half of January, but the evolution of the pattern definitely looks promising.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Unfortunately no, it looks like it on the RMM charts but trop forcing will eventually settle around the Indian Ocean for a minute after the current MJO pulse leaves, which will set the pacific jet retraction in motion, can see it easily on VP charts Vs the RMM. Looks like we’ll have favorable MJO propagation again sometime around the 2nd-3rd week of January, and we might start seeing downwelling effects of the possible SSW coming up. It’s worth noting that while we may get into a -PNA pattern due tropical forcing, it’s also is what is likely gonna start a legitimate period of -NAO.
Basically my thinking.
week 1-1.5 of jan = favorable pattern, questionable cold, but we could make something happen, need certain things in the overall longwave pattern to go right (deep northern stream trough over the NE US/SE Canada, trailing wave(s) associated with wavebreaking from the GOAK longwave trough)
- Week 1.5-3 of jan might get mild/lackluster because the MJO will finally encourage -PNA/western troughing, which should kickstart a favorable Atlantic pattern
-week 3 of jan we make a favorable flip and probably see the most favorable pattern since January 2022View attachment 138883
Click to expand...
Great read!!! The type of -PNA that you’re talking about during that time is also one that doesn’t necessarily mean a torch. The ridge over Canada should keep the SER very muted and the models keep wanted to set that vortex up over Baffin Bay… that’s a pattern that CAD areas could still score in with good timing.
 
really good GEFS run here at 18z. There has been a notable trend to getting this ridge more poleward/towards Alaska, that pacific look is probably the best look I’ve honestly seen since 2022, and similar in a lot of ways in regards to positioning of the ridge axis. But we unloaded a crap ton of cold in NW Canada that December leading up A503447F-34E0-475E-A802-19308577398C.gif83E94D37-E174-4620-B93D-04F1F10DCF20.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
really good GEFS run here at 18z. There has been a notable trend to getting this ridge more poleward/towards Alaska, that pacific look is probably the best look I’ve honestly seen since 2022, and similar in a lot of ways in regards to positioning of the ridge axis. But we unloaded a crap ton of cold in NW Canada that December leading up View attachment 138885View attachment 138884
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The STJ seems to keep the moisture rolling through too. Just about all of the players are there and we are looking to at least be in the game.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
really good GEFS run here at 18z. There has been a notable trend to getting this ridge more poleward/towards Alaska, that pacific look is probably the best look I’ve honestly seen since 2022, and similar in a lot of ways in regards to positioning of the ridge axis. But we unloaded a crap ton of cold in NW Canada that December leading up View attachment 138885View attachment 138884
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I'm just excited to see that the purplest vortex is actually on our side of the earth, and not in Siberia. Feels like it's been a minute.

I can't imagine that look wouldn't snow on us if we get the timing right.
 
This is just a dumb 384 18z GFS 500mb height image. I haven't looked at the surface, although i did peek at the 850s, which looked just about like i thought they would.

Who knows if it will end close to this, but it's at least pleasant to see these kinds of images showing up regularly now. That said, if and when the actual pattern evolves like this, somebody in the Southeast is getting a snowstorm before all is said and done. You can take that to the bank.gfs_z500_mslp_namer_65.png
 
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Rain Cold said:
This is just a dumb 384 18z GFS 500mb height image. I haven't looked at the surface, although i did peek at the 850s, which looked just about like i thought they would.

Who knows if it will end close to this, but it's at least pleasant to see these kinds of images showing up regularly now. That said, if and when the actual pattern evolves like this, somebody in the Southeast is getting a snowstorm before all is said and done. You can take that to the bank.
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Siberian express.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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I got a feeling if this run went further you would see a snow storm in the south. Very well established cold feed with 850’s sub freezing past the gulf coast and a nice trailing wave sliding down the ridge in the Rockies. Keep the TPV near the border and this would’ve been a big boy I think.
 
Ollie Williams said:
We have needed a classic southern slider like this
View attachment 138908
View attachment 138907
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Euro was a good example of what can go right in this pattern, NE US vortex for confluence/cold feed, and a trailing wave that came in at the right time from a GOAK wavebreak, and far enough south due to the suppressive track
Key is getting some energy left in Canada to dive down into the longwave trough into the eastern US. Injects more cold into the pattern, and strengthens the long wave trough. All key things that’s around day 5-7
 
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