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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

This is clearly just a guess with no scientific evidence but I've noticed over the years that some dates really stick out when it comes to getting storms. For example December 7th thru 10th and December 18th-20th and January 20th along with Valentines day. Idk why but those are the dates I typical see snow in the Mtns/foothills. Call me crazy but even the other day on the 18 if we just had more cold it would have been a monster. So just going off old intuition and webbs analysis I think mid to late January will produce. Around the 20th book it!!!!
 
Couple of hum dingers in there and a several members were setting up for more at the end of the run.
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SnowNiner said:
GEFS looks pretty great the beginning of January. EPS looks good too, but starts to get funky at the end imo with an Aleutian ridge. Hope that doesn't hold. Maybe that's the Midwest snow pack pattern. ?

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It likely is. That evolution will probably occur given what’s going on subseasonal wise, we eventually go into a -PNA, but the southeast ridge will likely be muted especially since the mean ridge is in Canada, which will excite the -NAO, we go for another extension mid-late jan, then we see the typical canonical Feb Nino pattern. First week into the second of January is a preview with a favorable H5 pattern, but are we cold enough, do we score ? I think we have a shot, but we need some help
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It likely is. That evolution will probably occur given what’s going on subseasonal wise, we eventually go into a -PNA, but the southeast ridge will likely be muted especially since the mean ridge is in Canada, which will excite the -NAO, we go for another extension mid-late jan, then we see the typical canonical Feb Nino pattern. First week into the second of January is a preview with a favorable H5 pattern, but are we cold enough, do we score ? I think we have a shot, but we need some help
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I think the only way we score with the loathsome -pna, is a true to form -ao and -nao, with a classic 50/50 that provides confluence. Not the fake greenland ridge that doesnt do much.That would need to be our cold source and keep the track south. I guess that's for the second week, the first week seems more classic opportunity if we can just get cold enough.
 
SnowNiner said:
I think the only way we score with the loathsome -pna, is a true to form -ao and -nao, with a classic 50/50 that provides confluence. Not the fake greenland ridge that doesnt do much.That would need to be our cold source and keep the track south. I guess that's for the second week, the first week seems more classic opportunity if we can just get cold enough.
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I can’t not believe we do this to ourselves every winter season, least some do.worry bout this n that to get the pattern we need. Personally I’m looking forward to spring severe chase season already. Know that s not going be a popular post …. But with a developing La Niña this spring I’m intrigued . Hopefully we can score a big winter storm or even two….
 
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tennessee storm said:
I can’t not believe we do this to ourselves every winter season, least some do.worry bout this n that to get the pattern we need. Personally I’m looking forward to spring severe chase season already. Know that s not going be a popular post …. But with a developing La Niña this spring I’m intrigued . Hopefully we can score a bi go winter storm or even two….
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It would be helpful for us to get cold up here in the western Great Lakes and upper Midwest and even get some snow cover to help source some cold for you guys. It’s been abysmal. We are pushing 60° on Christmas Eve!


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Wild Weather Monger said:
The models are struggling with next week's trough. Not surprising since by then we're on the cusp of a major pattern change.

ICON says don't sleep on the end of December.
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Interesting that you should mention that. The GFS just took the 500mb from Chicago at the 6Z run to Memphis on the 12Z run for 12/28.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Interesting that you should mention that. The GFS just took the 500mb from Chicago at the 6Z run to Memphis on the 12Z run for 12/28.
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Not to mention 24 hours ago, the GFS had a closed UUL on the south shore of Hudson Bay lol.
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