Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

[tennessee storm]

Ł I lll l

Wow! That's a strong cold anomaly for a 30 day average.

now let’s look at the precip map for that 30 day …period

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 138812

That would put the average hi/lo for ATL around 43/27 ?

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Cfs ensemble 11-15 and 16-20 day H5

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[J.C.]

That would put the average hi/lo for ATL around 43/27 ?

Which is exactly why it isn't believable.

 

[SnowNiner]

Wow! That's a strong cold anomaly for a 30 day average.

Yeah thats crazy cold. I serious doubt that's close to reality. But if we go though the month of January at -2 degrees I'd be ecstatic.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 138812

That map implies a strong CAD signal.

Bring it!

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[BullCityWx]

Honestly the signs are growing for the first week of the month

 

[TheBatman]

Honestly the signs are growing for the first week of the month
View attachment 138813

Got the few frames before that for western side of the board.

 

[SnowNiner]

GEFS continues to look generally favorable at H5 in the beginning of January. And 850s are cool, cold. However surface temps are not translating it seems. Perhaps later, this is far as I can access.

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah, and I never got a single flake out of it. Hopefully if this occurs it'll set up about 30 miles farther southeast than that storm did.

I actually had about 8 hours straight of light snow on the back side of that storm and not a bit of it stuck

 

[Snowfan]

 

[CaryWx]

GEFS continues to look generally favorable at H5 in the beginning of January. And 850s are cool, cold. However surface temps are not translating it seems. Perhaps later, this is far as I can access.

View attachment 138817

Maybe not getting the surface cold until closer to weekend (Jan 6-7)

 

[Jan88]

Maybe not getting the surface cold until closer to weekend (Jan 6-7)

I know it's el nino but here in upstate SC it's been very dry overall.cold at times.goin take a lot of rearranging of the upper pattern to get any sustainable winter in the south. Looks like the can being kicked down the road on change.

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Tarheel1]

#BACKLOADED

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

GEFS continues to look generally favorable at H5 in the beginning of January. And 850s are cool, cold. However surface temps are not translating it seems. Perhaps later, this is far as I can access.

View attachment 138817

Cold is going to be a problem as someone on here has pointed out. The blues at 500mb are misleading. The saying "we don't live at 500mb" applies when the 500 mb pattern looks good as well.

 

[Chazwin]

Cold is going to be a problem as someone on here has pointed out. The blues at 500mb are misleading. The saying "we don't live at 500mb" applies when the 500 mb pattern looks good as well. Climate change is ruining our winters.
View attachment 138819

That actually matches up fairly well with the 500mb and 850mb anomaly maps got that time stamp. One thing I will note however is that often times it takes models some time to match up 2m temps to 500mb heights. It’s something I observed leading up to the Arctic outbreak last year at Christmas when modeled 2m temps weren’t nearly as impressive as the 500 mb maps were showing… in the 10-12 day range

 

[CaryWx]

Climate change is ruining our winters.

There's an entire thread board for this you know