In fairness to Webb, he’s been fairly consistent that he thinks it would be the 2nd half of January before the southeast has widespread winter storm chances.
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
And I don’t think it’s kicking the can when it’s the actual climo
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Big dog on 12Z GFS for the time frame that many are seeing as a potential window for the south, Jan 4th.
So we starting the thread or nah?
That looks real sloppy.
We are in South Carolina, we are king of sloppy.
Brent
Member
That's three out of four GFS runs to bury some people out here
Webb's concerns with Northern snow cover are valid. Looking at 240 hr + maps and thinking the solutions are anywhere near to reality is not a good idea.
Late January into mid February is where I'm at. We will have an active Southern jet in most likelihood, with the cold and moisture meeting up in an El nino like this.
Also, 500mb anomaly maps via ensemble means doesn't necessarily mean cold surface temperatures. Webb alluded it takes time to propagate downward and it moderates. Regardless we will swing and miss more than hit.
Late January into mid February is where I'm at. We will have an active Southern jet in most likelihood, with the cold and moisture meeting up in an El nino like this.
Also, 500mb anomaly maps via ensemble means doesn't necessarily mean cold surface temperatures. Webb alluded it takes time to propagate downward and it moderates. Regardless we will swing and miss more than hit.
Ensembles showing pretty cold air
MichaelJ
Member
I agree, likely at and West of Mountains of NC
We will likely have a couple marginal events (marginal temperatures) before someone further South scores deeper into January. Got to have those tone setter storms first. That’s how some of our best Winters have evolved. You miss a few times then a big one comes later on.
SnowNiner
Member
To me, if it's cold, it's cold. It'll snow. I don't necessarily think snow cover is a must but I'm sure it would help. Question is for the first week of January, will it be cold? The below looks like from H5 it should work, with cross polar flow, a lobe of the PV near baffin bay and even a bit of Atlantic-nao showing up. But the 2 meter temp doesn't really respond, so I don't know. We just need it cold and if it happens quick, we can score. To me that's why we're starting to see fantasy storms that week. Weird ones, but they're starting. Below may be wrong completely, but if it ends up looking like that, I like our chances.
Just musing of course but it only takes one good storm over a couple of days to lay down a snow pack to our north.
Definitely agree. We don't need it but it certainly is great to have. It would be awesome to just start a favorable pattern off with a banger.
Gotta love the Cinnabon pattern in the east
Beggars can’t be choosers! Slop is better than rain! 12Z says winter is coming…
rburrel2
Member
Pattern looks about as good as you can ask for in the post 240hrs timeframe, imo.