Even Lenoir got a dusting last night
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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The same physical processes working to retract the Pacific Jet Stream & generate Western Canada blocking/+PNA in early January will also try to drop a mean trough over the western half of the CONUS as we approach mid-January.
Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.
This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)
Although the prototypical -PNA pattern will be significantly muted & smeared in this case for obvious ENSO-related reasons (i.e. I wouldn't expect a particularly persistent or intense SE US ridge here (if at all)).... ...this large-scale signal is definitely legit, esp. given the forthcoming collapse of the +IOD that'll help enhance the expression of Indian Ocean-related convective + downstream circulation anomalies.
This is the kind of pattern we need to see to restore the snow pack over the northern tier of the US going into our prime window for winter weather (late Jan-early Feb)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm still skeptical of legit winter storm potential in/around early January.
It's possible we could sneak something in, but this looks like one of those cases where the circulation pattern is quite favorable for a winter storm, but the actual cold air may not be there because of how warm the pattern is beforehand.
It's possible we could sneak something in, but this looks like one of those cases where the circulation pattern is quite favorable for a winter storm, but the actual cold air may not be there because of how warm the pattern is beforehand.
Had a dusting in Roanoke! ...just at the base of Mill Mountain
Do you see it evolving with the cold spreading east like some models have or the PNA spiking and driving the trof east? The CFS seems to like the first option.
I went skiing up at beech last January during that cold outbreak. They got about 6” up on Beech. When those wind chill values get into the -10’s she’s a whole different animal. It’s a different world up there.
already kicking the can to february i see, in true southeast fashion
ATLwxfan
Member
North Pacific cold air sourcing ain’t gonna be a great way to make a winter. It might be a great way to not torch so there’s that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Relax
Things progressing nicely at Day 10.
This isn't the worst look I've ever seen 
Yeah that time period is worth keeping an eye on. It has some pretty serious challenges with cold air availability and moisture return but if you are like me and just want to see some snow flakes in the air we've obsessed over worse looks on this site
End of the EPS gets the ridge up and going in Alaska 
? ? 
Flotown
Member