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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Chazwin said:
That actually matches up fairly well with the 500mb and 850mb anomaly maps got that time stamp. One thing I will note however is that often times it takes models some time to match up 2m temps to 500mb heights. It’s something I observed leading up to the Arctic outbreak last year at Christmas when modeled 2m temps weren’t nearly as impressive as the 500 mb maps were showing… in the 10-12 day range
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That image was mainly pointing out the whole northern hemisphere above average. I know it's still cold up there. But it's definitely above normal up there which would mean warmer than it normally would be when it gets here. And we know we always struggle with temps regardless.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That image was mainly pointing out the whole northern hemisphere above average. I know it's still cold up there. But it's definitely above normal up there which would mean warmer than it normally would be when it gets here. And we know we always struggle with temps regardless.
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IDK, It seems most of the time when the southeast is below average, Canada is above average… at least to my untrained eyes. I just don’t put a ton of stock either way into 2m temp maps more than a week or so out.
 
Chazwin said:
That actually matches up fairly well with the 500mb and 850mb anomaly maps got that time stamp. One thing I will note however is that often times it takes models some time to match up 2m temps to 500mb heights. It’s something I observed leading up to the Arctic outbreak last year at Christmas when modeled 2m temps weren’t nearly as impressive as the 500 mb maps were showing… in the 10-12 day range
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Not picking on you in particular here, but just wanted to mention that a key detail most folks seem to be glossing over here:

When a blocking ridge initially develops, it doesn't often get instantly cold further to the south, which is especially important to know in cases like this when the pattern is so darn warm beforehand.

When the blocking ridge forms, it takes time for the cold air mass it displaces to get transported south to your vicinity (usually a week or more), and even then in this case, the air mass is starting out so warm (relative to normal) & going over a larger-than-normal area of barren ground for much of its journey to get here, which causes it to modify much, much more quickly than it normally would. Those pretty meager 2 meter temps you're seeing in the extended are probably not a figment of your imagination unfortunately.

Point being, there's simply more to winter storm potential than looking at 500mb anomaly maps & imho we are a long ways off from seeing something truly good this winter.


My overall thoughts on early January remain basically unchanged from this post early yesterday:

Even though the circulation pattern is certainly favorable for a winter storm (& sure it's not totally impossible one occurs), the low-level air mass is really killing us here & making it rather unlikely.

Webberweather53 said:
I'm still skeptical of legit winter storm potential in/around early January.

It's possible we could sneak something in, but this looks like one of those cases where the circulation pattern is quite favorable for a winter storm, but the actual cold air may not be there because of how warm the pattern is beforehand.
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Webberweather53 said:
Not picking on you in particular here, but just wanted to mention that a key detail most folks seem to be glossing over here:

When a blocking ridge initially develops, it doesn't often get instantly cold further to the south, which is especially important to know in cases like this when the pattern is so darn warm beforehand.

When the blocking ridge forms, it takes time for the cold air mass it displaces to get transported south to your vicinity (usually a week or more), and even then in this case, the air mass is starting out so warm (relative to normal) & going over a larger-than-normal area of barren ground for much of its journey to get here, which causes it to modify much, much more quickly than it normally would. Those pretty meager 2 meter temps you're seeing in the extended are probably not a figment of your imagination unfortunately.

Point being, there's simply more to winter storm potential than looking at 500mb anomaly maps & imho we are a long ways off from seeing something truly good this winter.


My overall thoughts on early January remain basically unchanged from this post early yesterday:

Even though the circulation pattern is certainly favorable for a winter storm (& sure it's not totally impossible one occurs), the low-level air mass is really killing us here & making it rather unlikely.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the explanation. It was much more professional than my analysis and maybe I should have left that last sentence off. But jeez that curbs any optimism seeing so much red over the whole hemisphere. Blues and purple on the other side of the pole ready to be tapped would go a long way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not picking on you in particular here, but just wanted to mention that a key detail most folks seem to be glossing over here:

When a blocking ridge initially develops, it doesn't often get instantly cold further to the south, which is especially important to know in cases like this when the pattern is so darn warm beforehand.

When the blocking ridge forms, it takes time for the cold air mass it displaces to get transported south to your vicinity (usually a week or more), and even then in this case, the air mass is starting out so warm (relative to normal) & going over a larger-than-normal area of barren ground for much of its journey to get here, which causes it to modify much, much more quickly than it normally would. Those pretty meager 2 meter temps you're seeing in the extended are probably not a figment of your imagination unfortunately.

Point being, there's simply more to winter storm potential than looking at 500mb anomaly maps & imho we are a long ways off from seeing something truly good this winter.


My overall thoughts on early January remain basically unchanged from this post early yesterday:

Even though the circulation pattern is certainly favorable for a winter storm (& sure it's not totally impossible one occurs), the low-level air mass is really killing us here & making it rather unlikely.
Click to expand...
Oh I agree with you completely. I honestly really haven’t been looking for anything through the first ten days or so of January myself. Like you said it’s going to take some time to get some cold air worked back into things. I guess really where I was going is that we’re not gonna start getting that cold built back up without a good 500mb set up
 
Daily snow cover extent over N America is crushing records in a not so good way atm & this is a massive thorn in the side for anyone hoping to see a good snowstorm over the next few weeks in the southern US.

Just to put into perspective how bad things have gotten over our side of the pond, current snow cover extent over N America is actually typical for what see during early April. If you're wondering why we're struggling to find cold air in early January despite the favorable pattern change, this is certainly one big reason why.


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None of this necessarily means of course that things will stay this way the entire way. Quite the contrary, I suspect we'll turn things around in a potentially a rather big way later in January &/or early February.

I'm honestly not really too surprised by how early January is unfolding thus far on the longer-range guidance either.

Seeing the return of a more consistent, cooler-than-normal pattern that generally is lacking in the snow department is honestly very on brand/typical for most El Niño winters (as the composite temperature and snowfall traces below show). Most of the time, snowfall opportunities for the Southeastern US & Mid-Atlantic don't really begin to ramp up in these kind of winters until we get past MLK Day. Long ways to go folks.

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GB0hSrSbkAAGYd-.jpeg
 
Chazwin said:
Oh I agree with you completely. I honestly really haven’t been looking for anything through the first ten days or so of January myself. Like you said it’s going to take some time to get some cold air worked back into things. I guess really where I was going is that we’re not gonna start getting that cold built back up without a good 500mb set up
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Getting a neutral or negative PNA/western-central US troughing for a week or two can change that in a hurry & put down a nice, fresh, cold white carpet over the northern tier of the US & southern Canada.

I think that's what it's gonna take to set us up for success in the longer-term (mainly late January onwards)
 
Just curious why a -PNA since our source regions are central to nw Canada and the great lakes? A properly placed -EPO and + PNA could get those areas frigid. Would it be because that pattern would result in cold and dry in those areas without laying down snowfall? Would a -PNA result in a storm track to produce abundant snowfall for those areas? It's hard to root for a -PNA in prime climo since those have been so hard to flip lately ??
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Just curious why a -PNA since our source regions are central to nw Canada and the great lakes? A properly placed -EPO and + PNA could get those areas frigid. Would it be because that pattern would result in cold and dry in those areas without laying down snowfall? Would a -PNA result in a storm track to produce abundant snowfall for those areas? It's hard to root for a -PNA in prime climo since those have been so hard to flip lately ??
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I think he’s speaking more from a standpoint of trying to get some snow pack built back up over the northern Plains.
 
lexxnchloe said:
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Probably more believable in March or April than in January.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Daily snow cover extent over N America is crushing records in a not so good way atm & this is a massive thorn in the side for anyone hoping to see a good snowstorm over the next few weeks in the southern US.

Just to put into perspective how bad things have gotten over our side of the pond, current snow cover extent over N America is actually typical for what see during early April. If you're wondering why we're struggling to find cold air in early January despite the favorable pattern change, this is certainly one big reason why.


View attachment 138829


View attachment 138831


View attachment 138830



None of this necessarily means of course that things will stay this way the entire way. Quite the contrary, I suspect we'll turn things around in a potentially a rather big way later in January &/or early February.

I'm honestly not really too surprised by how early January is unfolding thus far on the longer-range guidance either.

Seeing the return of a more consistent, cooler-than-normal pattern that generally is lacking in the snow department is honestly very on brand/typical for most El Niño winters (as the composite temperature and snowfall traces below show). Most of the time, snowfall opportunities for the Southeastern US & Mid-Atlantic don't really begin to ramp up in these kind of winters until we get past MLK Day. Long ways to go folks.

View attachment 138835

View attachment 138838

View attachment 138837

View attachment 138836
Click to expand...
I’m trying to help y’all out! 2F3513DA-94E8-4361-8695-082732B66D9A.pngD969FC2E-B856-473F-9AAF-7F85851FFDBD.pngB76852E6-4D60-47F6-8FFD-F13E252D83D0.png
 
We most definitely have our most impressive fantasy storm of the year here now will it become consistent is another story
 
Webberweather53 said:
Daily snow cover extent over N America is crushing records in a not so good way atm & this is a massive thorn in the side for anyone hoping to see a good snowstorm over the next few weeks in the southern US.

Just to put into perspective how bad things have gotten over our side of the pond, current snow cover extent over N America is actually typical for what see during early April. If you're wondering why we're struggling to find cold air in early January despite the favorable pattern change, this is certainly one big reason why.


View attachment 138829


View attachment 138831


View attachment 138830



None of this necessarily means of course that things will stay this way the entire way. Quite the contrary, I suspect we'll turn things around in a potentially a rather big way later in January &/or early February.

I'm honestly not really too surprised by how early January is unfolding thus far on the longer-range guidance either.

Seeing the return of a more consistent, cooler-than-normal pattern that generally is lacking in the snow department is honestly very on brand/typical for most El Niño winters (as the composite temperature and snowfall traces below show). Most of the time, snowfall opportunities for the Southeastern US & Mid-Atlantic don't really begin to ramp up in these kind of winters until we get past MLK Day. Long ways to go folks.

View attachment 138835

View attachment 138838

View attachment 138837

View attachment 138836
Click to expand...
Afraid the game called kicking the ole can down the road has officially started …
 
I have NC goggles on fyi:
0zEuro says we flip pattern late 12/28 still as has been advertized. 6z gfs has minor fantasy 1/1, much better 1/5. Just quick glancing. Starting off day 21 degrees here again. Gonna warm up some daytime wise now till Christmas.

Good chance i end up December with 7-8 inches qpf dept.
 
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