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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Interesting how the 06z GFS trended with the day 7 system... if we can get that trough to pinch off in the right spot we could be in business, and even have a decent CAD feed to keep boundary layer temps in check. Not really any ensemble support though, but maybe it's a trend.

It jumped from pinching off over Utah to bottoming out in Illinios in one model cycle, so who knows.
 
Lol I wondered why all of a sudden we weren't seeing any EPS images past 240. Everyone has been stopping at D10 and I was wondering if maybe it didn't run past that point last night. Oh but it did. And now we know why we haven't seen it.

eps_z500a_nhem_61.png

Fortunately, it is still not the end of the world and will probably change anyway.
 
Our best window to score is 240-300hrs out right now. As you'd expect we will (probably) have to at minimum cycle through some sort of warm up after that to reload. As long as the arctic blocking keeps showing up we might avoid a sustained torch though, imo.
 
My biggest concern at the moment is the lack of waves during our best window... definitely has that cold/dry suppression look where we always think a storm will eventually show up in the medium range but it hardly ever does. Still too early to tell much of anything though.
 
metwannabe said:
Meh, I'm kinda over it at this point. If we get wintry precip great, if we don't, oh well.... the older I get the less I like cold anyway. I'd just like to see things dry out a bit
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That's me I played golf other day here, it was 55° wind was blowing about 10 and I like to froze. I'm only 49 but had open heart surgery at 41 so that made a difference in way the cold gets to me. I can take 90 better now than I can freezing cold. But with that said I still like to see one decent snow then I'm ready for it to warm up.

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rburrel2 said:
Our best window to score is 240-300hrs out right now. As you'd expect we will (probably) have to at minimum cycle through some sort of warm up after that to reload. As long as the arctic blocking keeps showing up we might avoid a sustained torch though, imo.
Click to expand...
60 hr window and then it needs to reload? Man we've reached an all time low
 
metwannabe said:
Meh, I'm kinda over it at this point. If we get wintry precip great, if we don't, oh well.... the older I get the less I like cold anyway. I'd just like to see things dry out a bit
Click to expand...

I'm definitely meh on this month. Just not going to depend on a long range 50/50 modeled out in time for hope, and certainly not hoping in a SSWE unicorn.

Wait to see what late February holds i guess. Hopefully we can get the pacific back, it seems to always come down to that.
 
Am I the only one that doesn’t like the pacific look on the ensembles when the TPV is over us.. we’re relying on a little cutoff in the pacific to position a ridge just right, that can go wrong so easily
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Am I the only one that doesn’t like the pacific look on the ensembles when the TPV is over us.. we’re relying on a little cutoff in the pacific to position a ridge just right, that can go wrong so easily
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It's aways going to be something. At least we're in the ballpark lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Am I the only one that doesn’t like the pacific look on the ensembles when the TPV is over us.. we’re relying on a little cutoff in the pacific to position a ridge just right, that can go wrong so easily
Click to expand...
Hey we might get a 60 hr window! Then we reload it for another 60 hr window 2 weeks later! I used to complain about only getting 7-10 day windows. Would love to see one of those right now.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about today's 12Z runs. It's time for a couple of models to spit out something to get weenies to perk up.
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I'm expecting plenty of Apps runners and inland cutters.
 
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