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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Northern Lebanon (34 degrees north - about the same as Forsyth County, GA) got 4' of snow recently. Granted, they have some elevation, 2,500 to 3,000 ft, but still, that's crazy! Why can't we get in on it, just once? Northern Africa got snow this winter, too.
 
weatherfide said:
Northern Lebanon (34 degrees north - about the same as Forsyth County, GA) got 4' of snow recently. Granted, they have some elevation, 2,500 to 3,000 ft, but still, that's crazy! Why can't we get in on it, just once? Northern Africa got snow this winter, too.
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4 feet of snow ?
 
QUOTE="SnowNiner, post: 628846, member: 850"]
I started to get optimistic only when the EPS jumped south and started getting closer to the GEFS track. When it just completely backed off I knew it was over.

I do think still an EPS, Ukmet combo under 5 days is solid.

Just got to find a cold pattern somehow, someway. Can somebody please fix the Pacific? ? seriously, if not this year next year?
[/QUOTE]
EPS is better for sure. But even on it I had right at a 2 inch mean. Mtns had what a 7 inch mean around AVL? I didn't expect 2 inches to accumulate but 2 inches worth falling from the sky melting on contact would have been fine. I'm going to end up with nothing and AVL will be lucky to see an inch at this rate. Horrible within 100 hrs. All garbage imo. Some just worse than others
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
QUOTE="SnowNiner, post: 628846, member: 850"]
I started to get optimistic only when the EPS jumped south and started getting closer to the GEFS track. When it just completely backed off I knew it was over.

I do think still an EPS, Ukmet combo under 5 days is solid.

Just got to find a cold pattern somehow, someway. Can somebody please fix the Pacific? ? seriously, if not this year next year?
Click to expand...
EPS is better for sure. But even on it I had right at a 2 inch mean. Mtns had what a 7 inch mean around AVL? I didn't expect 2 inches to accumulate but 2 inches worth falling from the sky melting on contact would have been fine. I'm going to end up with nothing and AVL will be lucky to see an inch at this rate. Horrible within 100 hrs. All garbage imo. Some just worse than others
[/QUOTE]

Well, I tend to give a little bit of leeway in this scenario, with such marginal Temps, and the ULL storm. The EPS has always been steady, in general footprint, that this was a mountain area, maybe foothills only storm. GEFS was the only one that tried to make it a board wide deal. I pay more attention to the pattern shown by the ensembles, not necessarily the direct output. It really highlighted to me how bad the GEFS is.
 
Sometimes you have to be careful with taking ensemble mean snowfall. For example, if there are 10 members and 9 show 0” and 1 shows 20”, you suddenly have a mean of 2”, but realistically you have a 90% chance of getting zilch and so your expectations should be more towards the median of the members (0”).
 
superjames1992 said:
Sometimes you have to be careful with taking ensemble mean snowfall. For example, if there are 10 members and 9 show 0” and 1 shows 20”, you suddenly have a mean of 2”, but realistically you have a 90% chance of getting zilch and so your expectations should be more towards the median of the members (0”).
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That is true. My argument toward ensembles being worthless isn't so much this storm although the GEFS had 16-20 members with measurable snow here just yesterday for this weekend, but how much they've burned me historically. Winter of 18-19 or 19-20 can't remember, the EPS had a 7 inch mean at GSP with almost every member showing measurable snow and like a 90% chance of 1 inch plus and 75% 3 inches plus and I didn't get a flake. I think the whole storm went poof for most on here. It wasn't just GSP. Since then I've had a bad taste in my mouth for ensembles for anything other than a pattern. Especially that awful precip type panel from the GEFS
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
QUOTE="SnowNiner, post: 628846, member: 850"]
I started to get optimistic only when the EPS jumped south and started getting closer to the GEFS track. When it just completely backed off I knew it was over.

I do think still an EPS, Ukmet combo under 5 days is solid.

Just got to find a cold pattern somehow, someway. Can somebody please fix the Pacific? ? seriously, if not this year next year?
Click to expand...
EPS is better for sure. But even on it I had right at a 2 inch mean. Mtns had what a 7 inch mean around AVL? I didn't expect 2 inches to accumulate but 2 inches worth falling from the sky melting on contact would have been fine. I'm going to end up with nothing and AVL will be lucky to see an inch at this rate. Horrible within 100 hrs. All garbage imo. Some just worse than others
[/QUOTE]
Calling bust 48 hrs before the event starts?
 
rburrel2 said:
EPS is better for sure. But even on it I had right at a 2 inch mean. Mtns had what a 7 inch mean around AVL? I didn't expect 2 inches to accumulate but 2 inches worth falling from the sky melting on contact would have been fine. I'm going to end up with nothing and AVL will be lucky to see an inch at this rate. Horrible within 100 hrs. All garbage imo. Some just worse than others
Click to expand...
Calling bust 48 hrs before the event starts?
[/QUOTE]
For most of us, it's just a cold rain event so...not really anything to bust now. Maybe it it doesn't rain, and it's 55 degrees and partly cloudy, I'll call it a bust.
 
rburrel2 said:
EPS is better for sure. But even on it I had right at a 2 inch mean. Mtns had what a 7 inch mean around AVL? I didn't expect 2 inches to accumulate but 2 inches worth falling from the sky melting on contact would have been fine. I'm going to end up with nothing and AVL will be lucky to see an inch at this rate. Horrible within 100 hrs. All garbage imo. Some just worse than others
Click to expand...
Calling bust 48 hrs before the event starts?
[/QUOTE]
It depends on your expectations. If anyone is expecting a paste bomb of several inches they are going to be disappointed. If you just want to see flakes i suppose it's in play. But is it really a bust if the NWS has a forecast of 0?
 
Snowlover87 said:
We are all desperate and look like fools.
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Some of us are. I figured it 2 days ago. The CMC was rain all but maybe 1 run. The Ukie never bit. We had the GFS and we did get the Euro trending right for like 12 hrs. Then the 18Z Euro fired warning shots but the 84 hr NAM sucked some in before it all went sideways. We never really had much honestly outside the mtns
 
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