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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Webberweather53 said:
Apples-oranges.

Single, operational model runs =/= ensembles w/ legitimate large-scale subseasonal pattern + multi-model support.
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I don't mind it. I like that your passionate with your take... you just have to admit it's bizarre in a weenie winter weather forum to see someone fighting so hard to prove/substantiate a torch 3-4+ weeks out. It's usually the other way around.
 
Webberweather53 said:
In this case, it's not. You're honestly not well suited to be a moderator here because of how you choose to constantly instigate other posters (including me) on a fairly regular basis (as evidenced by the last few responses to me), which is the exact opposite of what your title on this forum says.

Anyways, carry on
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Why thank you I believe I will
 
Jeez guys. Can it just be June 12th already, and most of the people
Left over complaining about heat while
Lick is arguing with Nicky about 100 degree days that Nicky always seems to doubt but is wrong about ? And don’t forget the posts about NW flow/cape bombs and accu35 posting hour 384 subtropical systems. Lmfao
 
round 3... lol. I never check the CFS, is this like an everyday occurance for it to spit out ice age weather? Either way... we can all use some fantasy snow pixels in our life right now... nice dose of weenie medicine.


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Webberweather53 said:
I don’t wanna be that guy & maybe it’s just me, but the last part of this comment sounds kinda racist. “Typical of a fro”? What is that supposed to mean? Hopefully mods delete your post & give ya a timeout
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Lol…wow! You took your ball, went home, then came back and called somebody racist? Epic clown!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Jeez guys. Can it just be June 12th already, and most of the people
Left over complaining about heat while
Lick is arguing with Nicky about 100 degree days that Nicky always seems to doubt but is wrong about ? And don’t forget the posts about NW flow/cape bombs and accu35 posting hour 384 subtropical systems. Lmfao
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Lick in Winter - Too snowy and cold for women to come out on weekend.

Lick in Summer - Too hot and sunny for women to come out on weekend.
 
rburrel2 said:
I don't mind it. I like that your passionate with your take... you just have to admit it's bizzarre in a weenie winter weather forum to see someone fighting so hard to prove/substantiate a torch 3-4+ weeks out. It's usually the other way around.
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It's not a bizarre world at all, that's the way the field is headed & will likely continue to accelerate in that direction.

The other thing is, most "normal" meteorologists aren't actually trained on how to forecast in this temporal band, so folks like me are an exception not the rule (save folks at the CPC, or other private + public sector entities). I took a few classes in college, actually taught another on Climate Dynamics, but mostly self taught + experience, & regularly have to forecast out to 2 weeks operationally at my current job.

Models are a tool, and you have to know how to use them & what you can take out of it. It's all about knowing your limitations and what you can actually predict "x" number of days or weeks in advance.

You're almost never going to get variables like precipitation and precipitation type right 500+ hours out because the e-folding scales is on the order of hours-days. Oth, focusing on large-scale slowly evolving circulation fields + planetary waves averaged over many days, MJO, Kelvin Waves, mountain + frictional torques, ENSO will because these take many weeks to months to even years in the case of ENSO to evolve from one phase of state to another. The latter are what I focus + key in on several weeks out & those aren't things that will be just given to you in model output in many cases.
 
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