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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Just a reminder, we should have a 6-12 hour window on or about January 28th to score. Then, after a record-shattering February torch, we will likely see another short window toward the end of March or early April. Given that we still have those one or two shots left, it's way too early for weather weenies to throw in the towel right now.
I already lit the towel and threw it into a vat of kerosene. Winter is over!
 
Never a good sign when you can’t get a good pattern with the MJO on the left side of the diagram.

When this hits the right side of the diagram in Feb ?

View attachment 129211
Gonna have three, freaking, severe weather seasons this year. January, February and April. Crap.
 
Severe weather season never ends!
True, I guess, though March through early May is usually the worst around here. Tropical systems that make landfall to the west of me also generate a fair amount of severe weather. I don't like extending the season, backing it up into January and February. Hoping March is a lamb this year.
 
Seems like that’s all we are ever good for in the south rain and severe storms got to love the winter season here not
 
MJO going into 8,1,2. Its about to get wild.
Or the MJO forecast is wrong and the ensembles are right, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are picking up on something that over-rides the MJO effects, or the MJO forecast is right and the ensembles are completely, unreliably, innaccurate. Something is working to not bring cold to this side of the globe.
 
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