Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
The way he labeled that measly 50/50 low a “vortex” ?Tree crusher 2 electric boogaloo! Speaking of ? View attachment 129484View attachment 129485
The main difference between this pattern and the snowstorms of 2018/2004 is that in 2018/2004 the SE Canada vortex looked to be a feature of the long wave pattern, and there wasn’t much room for that to budge. The SE Canada vortex in this pattern looks to be a transient synoptic wave caused by the phasing of two s/w’s.
I’m not buying any of the snowy models yet because ensemble support is too lackluster. In addition, models almost always overdo phasing and amplification (especially the Euro).
There’s always lots of volatility in the handling of those waves, so I would expect to see a lack of consistency in the coming days with that 50/50 low. This is our greatest chance for snow all season east of the Apps, but that’s not saying much.
Don't waste your time man. We have our 15 minute window on deck on 1/29.Yeah, admit ensembles don't look great to me....but Euro and Ukmet combo keeps making me look. The SE Canada vortex always seems to move out of the position we need it in closer to go time. Being over a week out, you just know it's not likely to stay in position come verification. But I'm a weenie, so I track.
12z Euro 1/5
Big Dog Bombing ULL! Up there with the all-time best Euro runs.
View attachment 129496View attachment 129497
View attachment 129499
Here we go. You've bought into a long range storm again. See you in here in a few days again asking why the models are always wrong on fantasy snows. ?Euro and GEFS both showing the storm on the 13th! And that would be about 10 days away from the severe weather we had here Wednesday! It's happening, folks! Get ready for the boom!
Here we go. You've bought into a long range storm again. See you in here in a few days again asking why the models are always wrong on fantasy snows. ?![]()
Fancy Gap 30 minutes away. But hey I'm gonna be stuck at home with just 2-3 feet snow..... lol@BIG FROSTY after that run of the Canadian View attachment 129505
Meet me in boone that weekend I’m gonna be up there if it still has support up there by MondayWell, that was quick and painless, lol. Nah, I actually have a Boone cabin trip planned for MLK weekend so I'm still a bit interested in next week. But my guess is we get a big ole rain bomb considering the lack of cold air.
I think the pattern has already gone to pot. Can't wait until it gets much worse. That should be really interesting. Maybe the ridge will be so far west that we are under northwest flow?Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.
Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
Why the long faces?? Webber told everybody yesterday, it wasn’t going to snow!Weenie roast ? ??View attachment 129524
It's gonna be hilarious when we completely flip the Pacific pattern in February and the Eastern US still ends up torching
My 12 hours in Syracuse a few years ago was the longest month of my life.Anybody considering booking a trip to the mountains should reconsider visiting the great city of Albany. Or maybe beautiful Syracuse? This thing's gonna crush interior NE. Who needs Boone when you have Pittsfield, MA?