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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

Ollie Williams said:
The main difference between this pattern and the snowstorms of 2018/2004 is that in 2018/2004 the SE Canada vortex looked to be a feature of the long wave pattern, and there wasn’t much room for that to budge. The SE Canada vortex in this pattern looks to be a transient synoptic wave caused by the phasing of two s/w’s.

I’m not buying any of the snowy models yet because ensemble support is too lackluster. In addition, models almost always overdo phasing and amplification (especially the Euro).

There’s always lots of volatility in the handling of those waves, so I would expect to see a lack of consistency in the coming days with that 50/50 low. This is our greatest chance for snow all season east of the Apps, but that’s not saying much.
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Yeah, admit ensembles don't look great to me....but Euro and Ukmet combo keeps making me look. The SE Canada vortex always seems to move out of the position we need it in closer to go time. Being over a week out, you just know it's not likely to stay in position come verification. But I'm a weenie, so I track.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yeah, admit ensembles don't look great to me....but Euro and Ukmet combo keeps making me look. The SE Canada vortex always seems to move out of the position we need it in closer to go time. Being over a week out, you just know it's not likely to stay in position come verification. But I'm a weenie, so I track.
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Don't waste your time man. We have our 15 minute window on deck on 1/29.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Euro and GEFS both showing the storm on the 13th! And that would be about 10 days away from the severe weather we had here Wednesday! It's happening, folks! Get ready for the boom!
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Here we go. You've bought into a long range storm again. See you in here in a few days again asking why the models are always wrong on fantasy snows. ?‍♂️
 
I got 2 kids that just threw up everywhere…kill me now. ?
 
Seriously, just have to keep an eye on this the next couple of days to see if a real chance materializes for a winter storm around the 13th.
 
00z GFS appears it's not gonna do it. To warm!
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SnowNiner said:
Well, that was quick and painless, lol. Nah, I actually have a Boone cabin trip planned for MLK weekend so I'm still a bit interested in next week. But my guess is we get a big ole rain bomb considering the lack of cold air.
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Meet me in boone that weekend I’m gonna be up there if it still has support up there by Monday
 
Rain Cold said:
Almost always need a solidly cold airmass in place for a widespread SE winter storm. It's why I personally always want to see the cold likely in place first, with the possibility of a storm. Because 9 times out of 10 (maybe 49 times out of 50), when you have the storm likely with the only possibility of cold air, you get a nice cold rain for most of us.

Anyway, we still have a couple of minutes later on this month before the pattern goes to pot.
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I think the pattern has already gone to pot. Can't wait until it gets much worse. That should be really interesting. Maybe the ridge will be so far west that we are under northwest flow?
 
RDUHeatIsland said:
Anybody considering booking a trip to the mountains should reconsider visiting the great city of Albany. Or maybe beautiful Syracuse? This thing's gonna crush interior NE. Who needs Boone when you have Pittsfield, MA?
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My 12 hours in Syracuse a few years ago was the longest month of my life.
 
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