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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

metwannabe... I won't clog up the other thread, but dude posted disagreeing with me first.... I'm not allowed to point out that he was wrong? How will he learn?
 
rburrel2 said:
This isn't whamby. this is explaining the similarity between ICON and Euro since we have to extrapolate the Icon post 180hrs. Geez... Notice the near identical 50/50 placement and strength at 168hrs.

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I’ll do as moderators say. Again we all know what 50/50s do that still doesn’t mean the pattern can’t be progressive. That means 50/50 moves out quick as well. Also a big reason the euro was productive was the strengths of the upper level low over our storm. That helps cool us down even more. Notice the much warmer thicknesses scooting further north in Tennessee. Means WAA will thrive creating mostly rain. Along with our high pressure much stronger on the euro.

I know a 50/50 is absolutely needed for us to succeed we all know this. My only claim was that the 12z icon was not going to be a major cad event as the euro shows at 12z.
 
rburrel2 said:
metwannabe... I won't clog up the other thread, but dude posted disagreeing with me first.... I'm not allowed to point out that he was wrong? How will he learn?
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I didn't say you weren't allowed, I requested do so in here or DM.... thanks
 
rburrel2 said:
metwannabe... I won't clog up the other thread, but dude posted disagreeing with me first.... I'm not allowed to point out that he was wrong? How will he learn?
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There was a lot of back and forth with your posts. There is a fine line. We try to do our best. It was starting to seem personal and dominate the thread a bit. No worries.
 
Then the deformation band falls apart right when it gets to MBY, lol. I hope everybody gets cold rain.
 
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NickyBGuarantee said:
I’ll do as moderators say. Again we all know what 50/50s do that still doesn’t mean the pattern can’t be progressive. That means 50/50 moves out quick as well. Also a big reason the euro was productive was the strengths of the upper level low over our storm. That helps cool us down even more. Notice the much warmer thicknesses scooting further north in Tennessee. Means WAA will thrive creating mostly rain. Along with our high pressure much stronger on the euro.

I know a 50/50 is absolutely needed for us to succeed we all know this. My only claim was that the 12z icon was not going to be a major cad event as the euro shows at 12z.
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This is not personal, but your claim was incorrect, lol. the Icon may not have had the backside action with the deepening low, but it definitely was going to have the great CAD feed similar to the Euro on the front side of the storm. It's not even debatable really.
 
Amazing how my county (Halifax) and Wake Co have almost identical rn/sn lines (not only with this modeled system but many times in reality). NW corner of Halifax almost a foot while SE corner barely a dusting, same as Wake. That line rarely fails
 
I don’t remember the last time we had an upper low enter Southern California and trek across the country and give us snow.

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This is what the GFS did to us before Christmas. Beware. I would love for the euro to be right. I'd take my 7" of snow/sleet and tip my hat to you all to my west getting two feet. But many more changes coming, for the good and/or bad.
 
FallsLake said:
This is what the GFS did to us before Christmas. Beware. I would love for the euro to be right. I'd take my 7" of snow/sleet and tip my hat to you all to my west getting two feet. But many more changes coming, for the good and/or bad.
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Valid but this time around it’s the euro giving the goods .. maybe it’s got more credence or maybe not .. ??‍♂️
 
Can’t wait to be in central Kentucky to miss the one foot plus snowstorm at my house…
Yes I will be in Kentucky from the 10th to the 15th.
 
I can see how the backside stuff is hard to get excited about right now especially when it's relying on the stale, not so cold core from the 5h low, but I think we have much better odds of scoring on the front end with CAD if the confluence, 50/50 configuration is there. We can score from that even if the storm is weak/shredded or if it's amped and tracking farther north than we'd like.
 
rburrel2 said:
I can see how the backside stuff is hard to get excited about right now, but I think we have much better odds of scoring on the front end with CAD if the confluence 50/50 configuration is there. We can score from that even if the storm is weak/shredded or if it's amped and tracking farther north than we'd like.
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Yep that's what I would focus on right now, placement/strength of the High, setup of CAD, and cold air feed. It's still too far out for the storm details.
 
if this is still showing up by sunday-monday, then Im def gonna get something in boone. Im not missing out on this one. only way i stay back is if the euro solution becomes a trend, but this look, is near golden for the mountains
 
Boy when this one falls apart this place is going to be insane! It looks bleak afterwards and Feb is not what you want to depend on in a La Nina. Anyway, I'm hoping for the best like the rest of you. It has more legs than the Dec 23rd system that only the GFS had. At least this one they have taken turns showing the storm and having the Euro is good. But ill wait until inside 120 hrs to go all in.
 
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